Major coastal flooding and beach erosion coming for the Jersey Shore and Delmarva, while storminess continues out West

In brief: The most significant coastal storm impacts since at least 2016 will unfold across the coast north of Virginia over the next couple days. Expect major tidal flooding and severe beach erosion on the Jersey Shore south of LBI through parts of Delmarva. In addition, gusty winds will likely cause power outages and some damage. Less impacts as you go north into NYC and Long Island but still stormy. Elsewhere, more rain coming out west after rainfall produced mostly as expected yesterday into this morning.

Biggest coastal storm impacts in 10 to 15 years for Delmarva and New Jersey

Looking at things this morning, we have a very significant coastal storm winding up off the Southeast.

Coastal storm taking shape off the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic coasts. (Weathernerds.org)

As a meteorologist, you can look at this and tell immediately that this is not tropical. One key factor is the presence of fronts. You can generally pick out the warm front and cold front attached to the low pressure at the surface, thus this remains firmly non-tropical. But that doesn’t matter beyond semantics.

Thus far, winds have been gusting to about 30 to 35 mph on parts of the coast between the Outer Banks and Florida’s First Coast. We have seen some 40 to 45 mph gusts today around Jacksonville on the backside of the system. Thus far, wind has not been much of an issue, but we do expect gusts to increase as the storm winds up and moves northward. What we’ll actually see in terms of storm center(s) remains to be seen, but in general, winds will begin to rev up. Wind gusts upwards of 50 mph will be possible around the Tidewater of Virginia and up the coast of Delmarva into New Jersey (more below) on Sunday.

(NWS Wakefield, VA)

This will also impact Virginia and parts of North Carolina with major tidal flooding. The current tidal forecast in Norfolk is about 1 foot higher than experienced earlier this summer and the highest since Hurricane Joaquin in October 2015. Up the coast in Ocean City, MD, the tidal forecast is 5.6 feet MLLW on Sunday will be the highest since Hurricane Sandy and the 4th highest on record. It would appear that two high tide cycles will come close to that.

Tidal forecast for Ocean City, MD (NOAA)

Heading up into Delaware and New Jersey, the coastal flooding and erosion threat is very, very serious.

(NWS Mount Holly/Philadelphia)

In Lewes, DE, tides are forecast to peak around 8.4 feet MLLW on Sunday. This would be seventh highest on record and highest since January 2016 (less than a foot lower). The period of record is shorter, but for Bowers Beach on the Delaware Bay further north in Delaware, tides should exceed any level experienced in the last 15+ years. For Cape May, NJ the 9.36 foot record looks safe, but even still, 8.4 feet is forecast, which would be third highest and highest since 2016.

For those that remember the very, very bad back bay flooding during Hurricane Sandy in the Atlantic City and Ocean City areas, thankfully this currently looks to peak about 2 feet under those levels. This would still be the highest since 2016 and fourth highest all-time.

Bay bay tidal forecast in Ocean City, NJ. (NOAA)

The 8.1 feet in Atlantic City would be the highest since Sandy (8.8 feet). Same up on LBI at Barnegat Light (5.7 foot forecast vs 6.4 feet during Sandy). Tidal flooding issues become more moderate to minor north of there. Basically, from Long Beach Island in Jersey, south into Delaware Bay, then south to the Outer Banks, this will be a significant, if not major tidal flooding event. Combined with rough surf, this will also be a major beach erosion event.

The wind gust forecast will be 50 to 60 mph with locally higher gusts on the Jersey Shore south into Delmarva. (NWS Mount Holly/Philadelphia)

Wind gusts up the coast will be 50 to 60 mph for the Delmarva coast and Jersey Shore. As you go north from there, the wind gusts start to drop off a bit. Look for gusts of 35 mph in most of New York City, except 40 to 50 mph perhaps for Brooklyn and Queens, as well as for Long Island. Locally higher gusts are possible on the south shore of Long Island.

Wind gusts in the New York City area and Long Island will generally be 35 to 55 mph. (NWS New York City)

These winds will be capable of bringing down tree limbs and power lines, particularly in New Jersey and Delmarva. Winds will drop considerably as you move inland from the coast, but it will still be rather breezy.

Widespread rain totals of 1 to 3 inches are likely up and down the Eastern Seaboard. Much of this will be welcome rain, as there is lots of dryness and drought in this area, but locally heavy downpours will cause urban and flash flooding, particularly where tidal flooding is exacerbated by the heavy rainfall.

Bottom line: The most impactful nor’easter slash coastal storm in about 10 to 15 years will bear down tonight and tomorrow across the Mid-Atlantic coast up through Jersey and Long Island. Expect significant problems, disruption, and potentially damage in this region.

Western storminess

Meanwhile, out west things continue to be active. Flood Watches continue for much of the Desert Southwest. Anywhere from 2 to 5 inches of rain fell in the Mongollon Rim. Phoenix has seen just shy of an inch so far officially, with higher amounts on the southwest side of Mesa and up in Deer Valley. Significant rains also fell in southern Utah as expected and southwest Colorado.

Rain totals estimated by radar in the 48 hours ending Saturday morning. (NOAA MRMS)

Additional rains are likely today, particularly in Arizona, southwest Colorado, and New Mexico. Tucson, which has seen little to no rain so far should see an inch or two over the next 48 hours. Much of New Mexico will be the same, with perhaps an inch or so even into El Paso.

Rain totals over the next 7 days, most of which falls this weekend. (Pivotal Weather)

Meanwhile, a major early winter storm will bear down on California next week, a spectacular start to the water year. Heavy snow is likely in the Sierra at high elevation, while heavy rain is possible across lower elevations, mostly in northern and central California.

(NWS Sacramento)

More to come on this. Check out Daniel Swain’s excellent blog for more as well.

For the tropics, other than Jerry heading out to sea, we’ve got little else to talk about.

Worst impacts since January 2016 or Sandy possible for Southern New Jersey & Delaware from East Coast storm Sunday & Monday

In brief: We have the latest on the impacts of the coastal storm on the East Coast that will be the worst since at least January 2016 or even Hurricane Sandy for South Jersey and Delaware it appears. Impacts will be significant and wide reaching. Meanwhile, heavy rains will unfold across the Southwest today, leading to flooding concerns. Jerry moves out to sea now, and Karen forms almost off the map.

Coastal storm

We are beginning to see our drawn out coastal storm begin to take shape off the Southeast coast. Moderate tidal flooding is expected in Savannah this morning, and major tidal flooding is expected in Charleston.

Major tidal flooding is expected in Charleston. (NOAA)

This would be the 15th highest tide level on record for this location. Fortunately, tide cycles after today should see more of a parallel to the coast and offshore component to the wind, which will allow for less trouble in Charleston.

But the problems will just be beginning farther up the coast. As the storm lifts north, it will get up to about New Jersey, slam on the brakes, and then backpedal toward the coast before eventually turning back east and south and away from land. The European model’s outcome is shown below.

European model guidance for the coastal storm off the Mid-Atlantic and New England. (Tropical Tidbits)

This means that the most significant impacts are probably going to end up occurring on the coast of Delmarva, New Jersey, and perhaps Long Island and southern New England. What does this translate to? Several high tide cycles of moderate to major coastal flooding, waves of 15 to 20 feet, beach erosion, 30 to 50 mph winds with higher gusts possible, and 1 to 3 inches of rainfall. This will occur mainly Sunday and Monday.

The current Sunday high tide forecast for Atlantic City reaches 8.1 feet in the morning high tide cycle, which would be the highest since Hurricane Sandy in 2012 (8.76 feet).

Major coastal flooding is likely in South Jersey from this storm. (NOAA)

For the back bays in Jersey, it looks like the highest tides since the January 2016 nor’easter (“Winter Storm Jonas or “Snowzilla”). For Cape May, this looks to be the highest since 2016 as well, which set the record there (9.36 feet). Lewes, Delaware will come close to that as well. The current forecast is 8.8 feet. Farther up the Jersey Shore, on LBI this will be the highest tide since Sandy. For the northern coast of New Jersey, more moderate type flooding is expected.

For Long Island and southern New England, since the storm stays a bit to the south, tides will be kept in check a bit, with minor to moderate flooding likely. The more severe impacts will occur from southern New Jersey into Delmarva.

Wind gusts look potent with this storm. This will be akin to a strong nor’easter that you’d see in winter. Gusts of 40 to 60 mph are likely.

Most likely maximum wind gusts on Sunday from the coastal storm. (NWS Mount Holly/Philadelphia)

In addition to the coastal flooding and strong winds, the waves will be significant, 20 feet offshore and very high nearshore. This is the type of storm that, lingering for 36 to 48 hours will produce substantial beach erosion, including eating away at dunes. Expect to see those “cliffs” you often get after big storms on the beachfront in places like Ocean City, NJ.

Powerful waves will cause significant beach erosion on the Jersey Shore and elsewhere. (NWS Mount Holly/Philadelphia)

We will also see 1 to 3 inches of rain as noted above, so some urban flooding is possible for some of the denser coastal communities, as well as perhaps up in the New York City area, particularly southern parts of Brooklyn and Queens and southern Nassau and Suffolk Counties.

(NWS New York City)

Farther south, coastal flood advisories are posted in Virginia and North Carolina, along with coastal flood watches for Hatteras and Ocracoke Islands. The current tidal forecast in Norfolk on Sunday at Noon is 6 feet, which would be the second 6 foot tide this year, which would be roughly a 1-in-10 year type of event.

Bottom line: This storm, despite not being tropical in nature, will bring some of the most significant impacts to the South Jersey Shore and northern Delmarva since at least January 2016, possibly since Hurricane Sandy. It should be taken seriously. Elsewhere, this will be a significant coastal storm with noteworthy impacts that should be planned for.

Southwest rains

From the ocean to the desert now. Flood watches are posted all over the Desert Southwest ahead of the moisture from Priscilla’s remnants moving into the Southwest.

Flood watches in the Desert Southwest stretch from southeast California across all of Arizona, southeast Nevada, southern Utah, southwest Colorado, and portions of New Mexico. (NWS Phoenix)

With the flood watches, we have a couple moderate risks for flash flooding today (level 3 of 4).

Moderate risks (level 3 of 4) are in place for excessive rain and flash flooding today in northern Arizona and southern Utah, including many national parks. (NWS WPC)

These moderate risks include the Grand Canyon, as well as the southern Utah national parks. Flash flooding can come on very quickly in the deserts, particularly in some of these rugged national park, monument, and wilderness areas. Keep in mind due to the government shutdown, staffing at these locations may be minimal, so risk of getting into trouble without getting quick help is higher than usual.

Total rainfall over the next 3 to 5 days will be on the order of 1 to 3 inches in much of Arizona and New Mexico, as well as Utah and western Colorado. Flash flooding is obviously a concern, particularly around places that see locally higher amounts. But much of this rain will be beneficial for reservoirs in the West, particularly given how bad 2025 has been out here.

1 to 3 inches, with locally higher amounts over the next 5 days in Arizona, parts of Utah, southwest Colorado, and southwest New Mexico. (Pivotal Weather)

Another thing we’ll watch is if Tropical Storm Raymond in the Pacific can further add moisture to the pile out West next week.

TS Jerry & Karen

Quick notes on the tropics today. No land impacts are expected now from Jerry or newly formed Karen in the far, far, far north Atlantic.

Jerry will make a hard right before getting to Bermuda, now no longer expected to be a hurricane. Meanwhile, Karen is incredibly far north and will be short-lived. (Tomer Burg/polarwx.com)

While not totally unprecedented to see storms track this far north, Karen was the farthest north forming subtropical storm in the Atlantic since the 1950s. Obviously, much of this is likely due to technological improvements allowing us to classify storms like this today that perhaps 50 to 75 years ago would have slipped through the cracks. Warmer than normal water surely doesn’t hurt either.

Other than these systems, the Atlantic looks quiet.

Major coastal storm to impact parts of the East Coast, while a significant flash flooding risk emerges in the Southwest

In brief: A major coastal storm will produce heavy rain, gusty winds, severe beach erosion and potentially major coastal flooding from North Carolina through New Jersey, Long Island, and southern New England this weekend and early next week. Tropical Storm Jerry will brush past the Leeward Islands today. And the Desert Southwest is primed for a major rainfall event courtesy of Priscilla, with significant flash flooding possible tomorrow.

Major coastal storm in the Mid-Atlantic through Southern New England

The threat of a coastal storm this weekend with significant impacts in the Mid-Atlantic and perhaps as far north as New England continues to increase. We now have various watches and advisories posted along the coast from the Carolinas through New Jersey.

(NWS Mount Holly/Philadelphia)

Areas across the Mid-Atlantic, particularly from Virginia up through New Jersey and Long Island it seems may be vulnerable to significant coastal flooding, strong winds, very rough surf, and potentially severe beach erosion. The general theme is that low pressure will form later tomorrow or early Saturday off the South Carolina coast. It should come north past North Carolina, before it slams on the brakes near the Jersey Shore or Long Island. From there, it will sit and spin for a day or so before eventually circling back south and southeast out farther into the ocean.

European model forecast of how things may unfold this weekend into early next week. (Tropical Tidbits)

It is a long, drawn out, complex storm track. And that’s one of the problems with this. This will help assist in multiple high tide cycles of significant impacts from Virginia into New England. On the backside of the storm, there will be sound-driven impacts as well in North Carolina. In addition to the marine impacts, there will be rainfall. Anywhere from 2 to 4 inches or higher amounts will be possible along the coast into New England.

Rain totals forecast through next Thursday morning. (Pivotal Weather)

For New England, given the drought situation, this will be a beneficial rain for sure. Along the immediate coast, however, the heavier rainfall may exacerbate the coastal flooding.

In addition to the rain, winds will buffet the coast pretty substantially. There is a better than 50 percent chance of 55 mph wind gusts on the Jersey Shore, possibly up to coastal Long Island and south into Delmarva as well.

(NWS Mount Holly/Philadelphia)

As noted in the above graphic, the track of the storm and intensity of the storm will dictate just how strong winds get. The European model shows wind gust risk of 40 to 60 mph almost continuously from Sunday through Tuesday along the immediate coast of New Jersey and Long Island. Keep in mind that the winds *will* drop off as you go inland, and the vast majority of concerns and risks with this system will be on the barrier islands and immediate few miles of the coast.

But again, it’s notable that marine impacts like tidal flooding and beach erosion look so significant this far out. We’ve been talking about this all week, and it has held firm on these impacts. For folks from coastal Delmarva to the Jersey Shore to Long Island, it will be important to be prepared for what should be equivalent to a powerful nor’easter.

Tropical Storm Jerry

Jerry looks frazzled this morning. (Tropical Tidbits)

Jerry remains in somewhat rough shape this morning, looking very much as though wind shear is enacting a toll. Still, it’s a formidable tropical storm despite the frazzled appearance, with max winds of 65 mph on the east side of the storm. But it does not appear to be making a run to hurricane intensity just yet.

Jerry will make a close pass to the extreme northeast Caribbean islands today before likely becoming a hurricane as it moves away. (NOAA/NHC)

Jerry will pass just northeast of the islands today, brushing some of them with tropical storm impacts, particularly Antigua and Barbuda but also some of the adjacent islands. Thankfully, Jerry is quite a lopsided storm at this time, with the majority of its wind on the eastern side. With the slightly calmer winds of the western side impacting the islands, this should help mitigate impacts and rainfall some.

The heaviest rains from Jerry will miss the islands to the east, though some locally heavy rain over higher terrain may cause some flooding or mudslide concerns in a few spots. (NOAA/WPC)

Thankfully, Jerry is moving along fairly quickly and will shift off to the north and head out to sea tomorrow. Model agreement is strong that Jerry will pass well south and east of Bermuda, no further threat to land.

Desert Southwest rains

Flood watches are now posted across Arizona, southern Utah, southwest Colorado, and even parts of Nevada and California, in anticipation of several days of heavy rain chances thanks to tropical moisture coming out of the Pacific.

Coverage of flood watches (dark green) as of Thursday morning. (Pivotal Weather)

Much of interior Arizona is in a moderate risk (level 3/4) for excessive rainfall and flooding tomorrow. Slight risks (2/4) cover much of the rest of the region including for today and Saturday, as well as Sunday and Monday in southeast Arizona and New Mexico. Moisture surges north today and tomorrow, peaking in interior Arizona tomorrow afternoon into Saturday before sagging back south again Sunday and Monday.

A moderate risk (level 3/4) for excessive rainfall and flooding is in place tomorrow from the Phoenix area through Flagstaff and parts of the Grand Canyon. (Pivotal Weather)

All told, we could see as much as 2 to 4 inches of rain across Arizona, portions of southwest Colorado, and Utah. Additional heavy rain will be possible into New Mexico heading into the weekend.

Significant rainfall is likely across Arizona, New Mexico, western Colorado, and Utah. (Pivotal Weather)

While this is assuredly welcome rainfall, there will likely be some flash flooding and potentially some serious flash flooding as a result of this event over the next couple days. This is especially important in parts of the desert. If you are visiting the national parks in this region, particularly with the government shutdown possibly reducing staffing in some spots, please make sure you are well aware of your location, surroundings, and the risk of flash flooding. There are some washes, rivers, and canyons that are notorious for severe, rapid-onset flash flooding that can stun you. So please exercise extreme caution, especially if hiking in this part of the country.

Notable coastal impacts from a storm growing more likely from the Mid-Atlantic through New England this weekend

In brief: The potential for significantly impactful coastal storm continues from the Carolinas to perhaps as far north as New England, with significant marine and beachfront impacts becoming more likely. Tropical Storm Jerry is disorganized this morning, but it will take a swipe at the far northeast Leeward Islands tomorrow night or Friday, perhaps while becoming a hurricane. Meanwhile, the potential for significant rainfall in the Southwest, courtesy of the remnants of Hurricane Priscilla continues to look high beginning Friday.

East Coast coastal storm

We’ll start today again with the latest on a likely coastal storm that will taunt the Eastern Seaboard from the Carolinas to perhaps New England from Saturday into early next week. There still remain numerous questions on track, intensity, etc., but a few updates today. First, again to be clear, this will not begin as a tropical system. This is going to be like a winter nor’easter (minus the snow) in terms of how it develops. As it interacts with the warm water off the Carolina coast, it could begin to take on a “flavor” of a tropical-type system.

A cyclone “phase-space” diagram shows how this system will start off as a frontal low (non-tropical) but it may wind its way into acquiring some tropical characteristics over time. (Florida State/Robert Hart)

We typically would call this potentially a subtropical storm, and if that’s the case it will get a name (Karen; go ahead, make your jokes now. Sorry to all Karens).

All that said, the main point: Name or not, the impacts will be virtually the same on the East Coast regardless.

So, now that we know not to focus on the name or “type” of storm it is, what will the impacts be? Well, that’s going to depend on track. A few things seem likely: Rough surf, potential for beach erosion, some element of tidal flooding, gusty winds on the coast. What are we unsure of? How strong will the winds be? Will they make it farther inland? How severe will tidal flooding be? Which location will experience the worst conditions? How long will this last? Who sees the heaviest rainfall?

(NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC)

Various models show various solutions at this point. The high-level thinking right now is that a surface low will form off the South Carolina coast on Friday and Saturday, work northward, perhaps close to Long Island or off the Jersey Shore by Monday, then either drift east out to sea, or drift back south toward North Carolina and then out to sea. Although none of this is set in stone, one thing we can say is that this could potentially be a long-duration event for folks, meaning multiple high tide cycles worth of impacts from the Outer Banks to the Jersey Shore or possibly Long Island and New England.

Heavy rain from this weekend’s coastal storm is likely from the Carolinas into New England, particularly along the immediate coastline. (Pivotal Weather)

Folks on the beachfront will want to prepare for several days of potential inconvenience, including tidal flooding and potentially significant beach erosion. Additionally, heavy rain on the immediate coast could exacerbate tidal flooding issues as well. Wind could be on the order of 40 to 60 mph in gusts on the coast, which could cause some damage as well, particularly when considering the potentially extended duration of winds.

Bottom line: A significant, complex, tricky to forecast specifics storm is coming this weekend from the Carolinas through New England.

Tropical Storm Jerry

Jerry is struggling this morning, as wind shear takes some toll on the system. It frankly looked a bit better yesterday.

Jerry is struggling a good bit on Wednesday morning. (Tropical Tidbits)

Jerry will begin approaching the northeast Leeward Islands on Thursday afternoon. As it does so, it will slow down, preparing to turn more northward. As this happens, the storm should begin to put itself together better, which will lead to a burst of intensification. Because of the close proximity of the forecast track of Jerry and the likelihood that the storm will strengthen, a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for a pile of islands: Antigua, Barbua, Anguilla, St. Kitts & Nevis, Montserrat, St. Barthelemy, St. Martin, Saint Maarten, Saba, St. Eustatius, and Guadeloupe.

(NOAA/NHC)

The NHC forecasts Jerry to become a strong category 1 hurricane, which is current stronger than most model guidance shows, a good strategy the way things have gone this summer. At this point, very few models or model ensemble members drag Jerry directly into one of the islands in the northeast Caribbean, but Antigua and Barbuda would be the closest to the center of the storm. Either way, gusty winds, tropical storm conditions, and heavy rainfall are likely in the islands there.

Jerry should turn north and eventually northeast, with decent model agreement right now on a track staying away from Bermuda.

Desert Southwest and Priscilla

Hurricane Priscilla is weakening after topping out as a major storm. It should be dropping below hurricane intensity later tonight.

(NOAA/NHC)

As Priscilla’s remnant come north, they will interact with a rather strong trough that nudges inland from the Pacific, allowing a funnel of moisture to aim into the Desert Southwest. As we’ve been talking about for several days, the potential for locally heavy rainfall is increasing, with slight risks for flooding (level 2/4) now in place from Friday through Sunday in various spots in Utah, Arizona, Colorado, and New Mexico.

Rain totals in excess of 3 inches are possible in isolated spots from the Four Corners south into the Sonoran Desert. (Pivotal Weather)

Some models show potential for even higher amounts than this in localized spots. I would expect flood watches to be posted by tomorrow for much of this region, so while the rain is mostly welcome in the long-term here, this could cause some short-term problems, particularly in Arizona and near the Four Corners.