More Desert Southwest flooding possible today, strong storms in LA tonight, the nor’easter exits, and Lorenzo forms

In brief: Tropical moisture from the remnants of Raymond in the Pacific will deliver another round of potentially heavy rain to Arizona and especially southwest Colorado today. Additional flash flooding is possible. A major storm brings Sierra snow, flash flooding potential, and a chance of severe weather in Los Angeles tomorrow. The East Coast nor’easter’s tides seem to be underperforming a bit, but the winds and rain are not with gusts upwards of 70 mph in New Jersey. Tropical Storm Lorenzo formed and is no threat to land, but we are watching another possible system behind that.

West Coast storms bring high impacts

After Saturday flooding in Colorado, we had quite an active Sunday in the Phoenix area. Rain totals were anywhere from 1 to 3 inches across the Valley. Sky Harbor’s 1.97″ of rain for the day was the fourth wettest October day on record, as well as the 16th wettest day overall going back to 1895.

36-hour rain totals of around 1″ or more ending on Monday morning in the Phoenix metro. (NOAA)

There was a Flash Flood Emergency issued at one point east of Phoenix in Pinal County. Water rescues were needed in Buckeye, freeways flooded in Mesa, and Globe, AZ reported flooding just weeks after deadly flooding hit. Overall, it was a very active Sunday in the desert.

Today, flood watches remain posted in southern Arizona, as well as in southwest Colorado, which experienced flooding on Saturday night. Another round of very heavy rain and tropical moisture is going to impact Colorado today, with perhaps as much as 1 to 2 inches or even more falling.

(NWS Grand Junction)

With the flood watch posted in Arizona, more of a localized type flooding may unfold there. Highest total rainfall looks to be north of Tucson and east of Phoenix today.

(NWS Tucson)

Meanwhile, the first big winter storm of the season will plow into California today and tomorrow with heavy rain, heavy snow in the Sierra, and even a chance of severe storms in the LA Basin. A marginal risk (level 1/5) for severe weather is posted there, primarily due to the potential for a squall line and isolated potential rotating cells on Tuesday morning. Basically, the chance of some strong wind gusts is in place, along with the chance of an isolated tornado for Los Angeles, mainly later tonight and early Tuesday morning.

A minor chance of an isolated tornado or waterspout exists in the Los Angeles area on Tuesday morning. (NOAA SPC)

Heavy rain may also produce localized flash flooding, and flood watches have been issued for various burn scars in southern California, including Palisades and Eaton. Flood Watches are also posted for the Sierra foothills. Winter storm warnings are posted in the Sierra above 5,500 feet now for 1 to perhaps as much as 3 feet of snow.

(NWS Sacramento)

The storm should clear from northwest to southeast later tomorrow and Wednesday.

East coast nor’easter performing with mixed results

We had another bit of an underperformance on high tides on the Jersey Shore with the midnight tide cycle. There is one more to come early this afternoon, and that will again at least threaten high-end moderate to major coastal flooding. At this point it also looks as though the tide cycle may allow for tide levels to come in a little under the forecast.

Tide forecast for Atlantic City shows the observed tide levels continuing to lag the forecast tide levels by a good margin, which may indicate that we’ll come in closer to moderate than major tidal flooding this afternoon. (NOAA)

Why this is? I’m not entirely sure. But it’s been true up and down the Jersey Shore since yesterday. The forecasts farther south have been somewhat better. Tides to the north seem to have been fairly close as well, though perhaps a little higher than forecast in spots. Whatever the case, there is tidal flooding. It’s at least minor to moderate. And it will continue today for at least one more tide cycle this afternoon.

Heading into the rest of the week, tides will be elevated but should produce merely minor to no flooding.

The rain forecast has mostly checked in close to verification with 1 to 3 inches on the coast. Healthy, beneficial rains have occurred in southern New England as well.

Estimated rainfall totals over the last few days. (Pivotal Weather)

Wind gusts have also done quite close to forecast. We did even have a 70 mph gust reported at Barnegat Light on LBI in New Jersey. Several other locations got above 60 mph as well.

Heading into the rest of today, conditions should slowly improve across the region. Winds will slowly back off as the day goes on. Rain should exit tonight. Tides should ease up a bit after this afternoon.

Tropics: Lorenzo…and more?

We did it. We again went from Invest directly to tropical storm. Lorenzo formed this morning in the open Atlantic. And that is where it shall stay.

Lorenzo is expected to quickly turn out to sea, but it may linger south of the Azores for a bit. (NOAA NHC)

Lorenzo is expected to hook north and northeast and then east. There are some models trying to bring it back south and west. We will see if that happens, but every season seems to have one storm that does some sort of “special” track in the Atlantic. Lorenzo may be that storm this year. It is currently expected to remain a tropical storm.

Beyond Lorenzo, we are seeing some signs of another wave in the Atlantic at a very far south latitude that tries to sneak under everything and make it into the Caribbean. That would be quite out of the realm of normal for this late in the season. For now, it’s just speculation. But don’t be surprised if we start seeing some late season Caribbean noise (which is normal) in about 8 or 9 days. But suffice to say, the route there may be somewhat peculiar. We’ll keep watching.

Significant storms on both coasts bring tidal flooding and beach erosion in the East and heavy mountain snow in the Sierra

In brief: There have been no big changes to the coastal storm forecast on the East Coast, with major tidal flooding and beach erosion expected from northeast North Carolina up into Long Island today and tomorrow. The next Atlantic system is not a land concern. Heavy rain in the Southwest did lead to significant flooding in southwest Colorado, with more rain on the way. And the West Coast will see an early season winter storm this week, with a couple feet of snow in the Sierra and beneficial rain across much of California.

Major coastal storm

In general, not a whole heck of a lot has changed since yesterday in terms of forecast impacts for the Mid-Atlantic coast between North Carolina and New Jersey. Starting in Atlantic City, three consecutive 8 foot high tides are expected on the beachfront today and tomorrow.

(NOAA)

Atlantic City has only exceeded 8 foot tide levels 8 previous times (last with Sandy in 2012 at 8.8 feet). So to get close 3 straight cycles would be impressive. You have to consider not just the level of the tide, but the compound risk of multiple significant high tides. Coastal flooding will be firmly moderate to perhaps major at times through tomorrow.

Moderate to major coastal flooding will continue up and down the coast from Duck, NC through Long Island into tomorrow. Inundation mapping for the New York City metro is available through the NWS NYC forecast office here.

Screen grab from Cape May webcam this morning. (NJbeachcams.com)

In addition, rough seas, significant to major beach erosion, and strong winds will continue as well. Wind gusts of 45 to 55 mph and perhaps near 60 mph will be possible on the coastline.

Strong winds are likely on the coastline, dropping off substantially as you work inland. (NWS Mount Holly/Philadelphia)

Gusty winds will extend into the NYC area, east across Long Island, strongest near Montauk. Gusty winds will continue into Monday, though today should be the worst.

Rain totals have backed off a little bit, with 1 to 3 inches now expected from Jersey into southern New England, highest in southeast Massachusetts and near the Cape. Upwards of perhaps 3 to 4 inches will be possible there.

Rain totals over the next 7 days show the heaviest rains on the Jersey Shore, eastern Long Island, and southeast New England. (Pivotal Weather)

The whole system will slowly drift east tomorrow and Tuesday, but it will linger hundreds of miles offshore. This could keep surf high and tides slightly elevated well into this coming week.

Overall, a big time nor’easter for October and still looking like the biggest one since 2016 for Jersey and Delaware.

Tropical Atlantic

Jerry is now technically off the board, but we’ve got a 50 percent area showing up farther out in the Atlantic. This is Invest 97L, and it is no threat to land. However, there is an increasing chance that this is going to eventually acquire the name Lorenzo.

Invest 97L may produce Lorenzo in a few days. It is no threat to land. (NOAA NHC)

Outside of that, it looks free and clear the next 7 days. Where do we watch heading into the tail end of October? Well, the areas are pretty clear: the southern Gulf, northwest Caribbean, and southwest Atlantic.

Storm origin points in the final 10 days of October. (NOAA NHC)

Generally, most storms will either meander or eventually quickly turn north or northeast. For now, we’ve got nothing on the radar, but we want to give you an idea of where to look as hurricane season approaches the finish line.

Desert Southwest flooding

Parts of Pagosa Springs, CO were evacuated due to flooding on the San Juan River, which hit major flood stage overnight. The crest of 12.66 feet appears to be highest at this location since 1927.

Major flooding forced the evacuation of some parts of Pagosa Springs overnight (NOAA)

Total rainfall over the last 2 days has been on the order of 2 to 4 inches with even higher amounts in some of the mountains in southwest Colorado. While this rain is certainly beneficial to the overall water supply in the Southwest, it surely can come with some pain in the short-term.

48 hour rain totals in southwest Colorado (NOAA)

Rain today will focus mainly on southern Arizona, while another round of rain and storms is expected to the north on Monday, with perhaps another 1 to 2 inches of rain possible in southwest Colorado.

Rainfall over the next couple days (mainly Monday) will be another 1 to 2 inches with locally higher amounts in southwest Colorado. (Pivotal Weather)

West Coast storm

As noted yesterday, an early season winter storm will pound California early this week. Snow levels should be at or above 6,000 feet, where as much as 1 to 3 feet is possible in the Sierra, mainly south of Highway 50. Storm duration will go from tomorrow into Wednesday.

Rain totals forecast for the next 5 days. (Pivotal Weather)

Snow will also occur farther north in the mountains of Montana and northern Idaho, as well as in parts of Washington and Oregon.

It does appear that this storm will also extend a bit farther south now, to include the LA Basin. Rain totals of 1 to 3 inches in the mountains and perhaps up to an inch in valley locations. No significant flash flooding is expected from this storm, but there will likely be some minor issues due to ponding, travel disruption, and potentially some minor debris flow concerns in burn scar areas. No flood watches are currently posted. Either way, there is no denying that this is a good sign to get some snowpack and rain early in the season, especially in what is expected to be a La Niña winter, where southern California historically leans a bit drier (not a guarantee).

The weather should calm down nationally after midweek.

Major coastal flooding and beach erosion coming for the Jersey Shore and Delmarva, while storminess continues out West

In brief: The most significant coastal storm impacts since at least 2016 will unfold across the coast north of Virginia over the next couple days. Expect major tidal flooding and severe beach erosion on the Jersey Shore south of LBI through parts of Delmarva. In addition, gusty winds will likely cause power outages and some damage. Less impacts as you go north into NYC and Long Island but still stormy. Elsewhere, more rain coming out west after rainfall produced mostly as expected yesterday into this morning.

Biggest coastal storm impacts in 10 to 15 years for Delmarva and New Jersey

Looking at things this morning, we have a very significant coastal storm winding up off the Southeast.

Coastal storm taking shape off the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic coasts. (Weathernerds.org)

As a meteorologist, you can look at this and tell immediately that this is not tropical. One key factor is the presence of fronts. You can generally pick out the warm front and cold front attached to the low pressure at the surface, thus this remains firmly non-tropical. But that doesn’t matter beyond semantics.

Thus far, winds have been gusting to about 30 to 35 mph on parts of the coast between the Outer Banks and Florida’s First Coast. We have seen some 40 to 45 mph gusts today around Jacksonville on the backside of the system. Thus far, wind has not been much of an issue, but we do expect gusts to increase as the storm winds up and moves northward. What we’ll actually see in terms of storm center(s) remains to be seen, but in general, winds will begin to rev up. Wind gusts upwards of 50 mph will be possible around the Tidewater of Virginia and up the coast of Delmarva into New Jersey (more below) on Sunday.

(NWS Wakefield, VA)

This will also impact Virginia and parts of North Carolina with major tidal flooding. The current tidal forecast in Norfolk is about 1 foot higher than experienced earlier this summer and the highest since Hurricane Joaquin in October 2015. Up the coast in Ocean City, MD, the tidal forecast is 5.6 feet MLLW on Sunday will be the highest since Hurricane Sandy and the 4th highest on record. It would appear that two high tide cycles will come close to that.

Tidal forecast for Ocean City, MD (NOAA)

Heading up into Delaware and New Jersey, the coastal flooding and erosion threat is very, very serious.

(NWS Mount Holly/Philadelphia)

In Lewes, DE, tides are forecast to peak around 8.4 feet MLLW on Sunday. This would be seventh highest on record and highest since January 2016 (less than a foot lower). The period of record is shorter, but for Bowers Beach on the Delaware Bay further north in Delaware, tides should exceed any level experienced in the last 15+ years. For Cape May, NJ the 9.36 foot record looks safe, but even still, 8.4 feet is forecast, which would be third highest and highest since 2016.

For those that remember the very, very bad back bay flooding during Hurricane Sandy in the Atlantic City and Ocean City areas, thankfully this currently looks to peak about 2 feet under those levels. This would still be the highest since 2016 and fourth highest all-time.

Bay bay tidal forecast in Ocean City, NJ. (NOAA)

The 8.1 feet in Atlantic City would be the highest since Sandy (8.8 feet). Same up on LBI at Barnegat Light (5.7 foot forecast vs 6.4 feet during Sandy). Tidal flooding issues become more moderate to minor north of there. Basically, from Long Beach Island in Jersey, south into Delaware Bay, then south to the Outer Banks, this will be a significant, if not major tidal flooding event. Combined with rough surf, this will also be a major beach erosion event.

The wind gust forecast will be 50 to 60 mph with locally higher gusts on the Jersey Shore south into Delmarva. (NWS Mount Holly/Philadelphia)

Wind gusts up the coast will be 50 to 60 mph for the Delmarva coast and Jersey Shore. As you go north from there, the wind gusts start to drop off a bit. Look for gusts of 35 mph in most of New York City, except 40 to 50 mph perhaps for Brooklyn and Queens, as well as for Long Island. Locally higher gusts are possible on the south shore of Long Island.

Wind gusts in the New York City area and Long Island will generally be 35 to 55 mph. (NWS New York City)

These winds will be capable of bringing down tree limbs and power lines, particularly in New Jersey and Delmarva. Winds will drop considerably as you move inland from the coast, but it will still be rather breezy.

Widespread rain totals of 1 to 3 inches are likely up and down the Eastern Seaboard. Much of this will be welcome rain, as there is lots of dryness and drought in this area, but locally heavy downpours will cause urban and flash flooding, particularly where tidal flooding is exacerbated by the heavy rainfall.

Bottom line: The most impactful nor’easter slash coastal storm in about 10 to 15 years will bear down tonight and tomorrow across the Mid-Atlantic coast up through Jersey and Long Island. Expect significant problems, disruption, and potentially damage in this region.

Western storminess

Meanwhile, out west things continue to be active. Flood Watches continue for much of the Desert Southwest. Anywhere from 2 to 5 inches of rain fell in the Mongollon Rim. Phoenix has seen just shy of an inch so far officially, with higher amounts on the southwest side of Mesa and up in Deer Valley. Significant rains also fell in southern Utah as expected and southwest Colorado.

Rain totals estimated by radar in the 48 hours ending Saturday morning. (NOAA MRMS)

Additional rains are likely today, particularly in Arizona, southwest Colorado, and New Mexico. Tucson, which has seen little to no rain so far should see an inch or two over the next 48 hours. Much of New Mexico will be the same, with perhaps an inch or so even into El Paso.

Rain totals over the next 7 days, most of which falls this weekend. (Pivotal Weather)

Meanwhile, a major early winter storm will bear down on California next week, a spectacular start to the water year. Heavy snow is likely in the Sierra at high elevation, while heavy rain is possible across lower elevations, mostly in northern and central California.

(NWS Sacramento)

More to come on this. Check out Daniel Swain’s excellent blog for more as well.

For the tropics, other than Jerry heading out to sea, we’ve got little else to talk about.

Worst impacts since January 2016 or Sandy possible for Southern New Jersey & Delaware from East Coast storm Sunday & Monday

In brief: We have the latest on the impacts of the coastal storm on the East Coast that will be the worst since at least January 2016 or even Hurricane Sandy for South Jersey and Delaware it appears. Impacts will be significant and wide reaching. Meanwhile, heavy rains will unfold across the Southwest today, leading to flooding concerns. Jerry moves out to sea now, and Karen forms almost off the map.

Coastal storm

We are beginning to see our drawn out coastal storm begin to take shape off the Southeast coast. Moderate tidal flooding is expected in Savannah this morning, and major tidal flooding is expected in Charleston.

Major tidal flooding is expected in Charleston. (NOAA)

This would be the 15th highest tide level on record for this location. Fortunately, tide cycles after today should see more of a parallel to the coast and offshore component to the wind, which will allow for less trouble in Charleston.

But the problems will just be beginning farther up the coast. As the storm lifts north, it will get up to about New Jersey, slam on the brakes, and then backpedal toward the coast before eventually turning back east and south and away from land. The European model’s outcome is shown below.

European model guidance for the coastal storm off the Mid-Atlantic and New England. (Tropical Tidbits)

This means that the most significant impacts are probably going to end up occurring on the coast of Delmarva, New Jersey, and perhaps Long Island and southern New England. What does this translate to? Several high tide cycles of moderate to major coastal flooding, waves of 15 to 20 feet, beach erosion, 30 to 50 mph winds with higher gusts possible, and 1 to 3 inches of rainfall. This will occur mainly Sunday and Monday.

The current Sunday high tide forecast for Atlantic City reaches 8.1 feet in the morning high tide cycle, which would be the highest since Hurricane Sandy in 2012 (8.76 feet).

Major coastal flooding is likely in South Jersey from this storm. (NOAA)

For the back bays in Jersey, it looks like the highest tides since the January 2016 nor’easter (“Winter Storm Jonas or “Snowzilla”). For Cape May, this looks to be the highest since 2016 as well, which set the record there (9.36 feet). Lewes, Delaware will come close to that as well. The current forecast is 8.8 feet. Farther up the Jersey Shore, on LBI this will be the highest tide since Sandy. For the northern coast of New Jersey, more moderate type flooding is expected.

For Long Island and southern New England, since the storm stays a bit to the south, tides will be kept in check a bit, with minor to moderate flooding likely. The more severe impacts will occur from southern New Jersey into Delmarva.

Wind gusts look potent with this storm. This will be akin to a strong nor’easter that you’d see in winter. Gusts of 40 to 60 mph are likely.

Most likely maximum wind gusts on Sunday from the coastal storm. (NWS Mount Holly/Philadelphia)

In addition to the coastal flooding and strong winds, the waves will be significant, 20 feet offshore and very high nearshore. This is the type of storm that, lingering for 36 to 48 hours will produce substantial beach erosion, including eating away at dunes. Expect to see those “cliffs” you often get after big storms on the beachfront in places like Ocean City, NJ.

Powerful waves will cause significant beach erosion on the Jersey Shore and elsewhere. (NWS Mount Holly/Philadelphia)

We will also see 1 to 3 inches of rain as noted above, so some urban flooding is possible for some of the denser coastal communities, as well as perhaps up in the New York City area, particularly southern parts of Brooklyn and Queens and southern Nassau and Suffolk Counties.

(NWS New York City)

Farther south, coastal flood advisories are posted in Virginia and North Carolina, along with coastal flood watches for Hatteras and Ocracoke Islands. The current tidal forecast in Norfolk on Sunday at Noon is 6 feet, which would be the second 6 foot tide this year, which would be roughly a 1-in-10 year type of event.

Bottom line: This storm, despite not being tropical in nature, will bring some of the most significant impacts to the South Jersey Shore and northern Delmarva since at least January 2016, possibly since Hurricane Sandy. It should be taken seriously. Elsewhere, this will be a significant coastal storm with noteworthy impacts that should be planned for.

Southwest rains

From the ocean to the desert now. Flood watches are posted all over the Desert Southwest ahead of the moisture from Priscilla’s remnants moving into the Southwest.

Flood watches in the Desert Southwest stretch from southeast California across all of Arizona, southeast Nevada, southern Utah, southwest Colorado, and portions of New Mexico. (NWS Phoenix)

With the flood watches, we have a couple moderate risks for flash flooding today (level 3 of 4).

Moderate risks (level 3 of 4) are in place for excessive rain and flash flooding today in northern Arizona and southern Utah, including many national parks. (NWS WPC)

These moderate risks include the Grand Canyon, as well as the southern Utah national parks. Flash flooding can come on very quickly in the deserts, particularly in some of these rugged national park, monument, and wilderness areas. Keep in mind due to the government shutdown, staffing at these locations may be minimal, so risk of getting into trouble without getting quick help is higher than usual.

Total rainfall over the next 3 to 5 days will be on the order of 1 to 3 inches in much of Arizona and New Mexico, as well as Utah and western Colorado. Flash flooding is obviously a concern, particularly around places that see locally higher amounts. But much of this rain will be beneficial for reservoirs in the West, particularly given how bad 2025 has been out here.

1 to 3 inches, with locally higher amounts over the next 5 days in Arizona, parts of Utah, southwest Colorado, and southwest New Mexico. (Pivotal Weather)

Another thing we’ll watch is if Tropical Storm Raymond in the Pacific can further add moisture to the pile out West next week.

TS Jerry & Karen

Quick notes on the tropics today. No land impacts are expected now from Jerry or newly formed Karen in the far, far, far north Atlantic.

Jerry will make a hard right before getting to Bermuda, now no longer expected to be a hurricane. Meanwhile, Karen is incredibly far north and will be short-lived. (Tomer Burg/polarwx.com)

While not totally unprecedented to see storms track this far north, Karen was the farthest north forming subtropical storm in the Atlantic since the 1950s. Obviously, much of this is likely due to technological improvements allowing us to classify storms like this today that perhaps 50 to 75 years ago would have slipped through the cracks. Warmer than normal water surely doesn’t hurt either.

Other than these systems, the Atlantic looks quiet.