Major coastal storm to impact parts of the East Coast, while a significant flash flooding risk emerges in the Southwest

In brief: A major coastal storm will produce heavy rain, gusty winds, severe beach erosion and potentially major coastal flooding from North Carolina through New Jersey, Long Island, and southern New England this weekend and early next week. Tropical Storm Jerry will brush past the Leeward Islands today. And the Desert Southwest is primed for a major rainfall event courtesy of Priscilla, with significant flash flooding possible tomorrow.

Major coastal storm in the Mid-Atlantic through Southern New England

The threat of a coastal storm this weekend with significant impacts in the Mid-Atlantic and perhaps as far north as New England continues to increase. We now have various watches and advisories posted along the coast from the Carolinas through New Jersey.

(NWS Mount Holly/Philadelphia)

Areas across the Mid-Atlantic, particularly from Virginia up through New Jersey and Long Island it seems may be vulnerable to significant coastal flooding, strong winds, very rough surf, and potentially severe beach erosion. The general theme is that low pressure will form later tomorrow or early Saturday off the South Carolina coast. It should come north past North Carolina, before it slams on the brakes near the Jersey Shore or Long Island. From there, it will sit and spin for a day or so before eventually circling back south and southeast out farther into the ocean.

European model forecast of how things may unfold this weekend into early next week. (Tropical Tidbits)

It is a long, drawn out, complex storm track. And that’s one of the problems with this. This will help assist in multiple high tide cycles of significant impacts from Virginia into New England. On the backside of the storm, there will be sound-driven impacts as well in North Carolina. In addition to the marine impacts, there will be rainfall. Anywhere from 2 to 4 inches or higher amounts will be possible along the coast into New England.

Rain totals forecast through next Thursday morning. (Pivotal Weather)

For New England, given the drought situation, this will be a beneficial rain for sure. Along the immediate coast, however, the heavier rainfall may exacerbate the coastal flooding.

In addition to the rain, winds will buffet the coast pretty substantially. There is a better than 50 percent chance of 55 mph wind gusts on the Jersey Shore, possibly up to coastal Long Island and south into Delmarva as well.

(NWS Mount Holly/Philadelphia)

As noted in the above graphic, the track of the storm and intensity of the storm will dictate just how strong winds get. The European model shows wind gust risk of 40 to 60 mph almost continuously from Sunday through Tuesday along the immediate coast of New Jersey and Long Island. Keep in mind that the winds *will* drop off as you go inland, and the vast majority of concerns and risks with this system will be on the barrier islands and immediate few miles of the coast.

But again, it’s notable that marine impacts like tidal flooding and beach erosion look so significant this far out. We’ve been talking about this all week, and it has held firm on these impacts. For folks from coastal Delmarva to the Jersey Shore to Long Island, it will be important to be prepared for what should be equivalent to a powerful nor’easter.

Tropical Storm Jerry

Jerry looks frazzled this morning. (Tropical Tidbits)

Jerry remains in somewhat rough shape this morning, looking very much as though wind shear is enacting a toll. Still, it’s a formidable tropical storm despite the frazzled appearance, with max winds of 65 mph on the east side of the storm. But it does not appear to be making a run to hurricane intensity just yet.

Jerry will make a close pass to the extreme northeast Caribbean islands today before likely becoming a hurricane as it moves away. (NOAA/NHC)

Jerry will pass just northeast of the islands today, brushing some of them with tropical storm impacts, particularly Antigua and Barbuda but also some of the adjacent islands. Thankfully, Jerry is quite a lopsided storm at this time, with the majority of its wind on the eastern side. With the slightly calmer winds of the western side impacting the islands, this should help mitigate impacts and rainfall some.

The heaviest rains from Jerry will miss the islands to the east, though some locally heavy rain over higher terrain may cause some flooding or mudslide concerns in a few spots. (NOAA/WPC)

Thankfully, Jerry is moving along fairly quickly and will shift off to the north and head out to sea tomorrow. Model agreement is strong that Jerry will pass well south and east of Bermuda, no further threat to land.

Desert Southwest rains

Flood watches are now posted across Arizona, southern Utah, southwest Colorado, and even parts of Nevada and California, in anticipation of several days of heavy rain chances thanks to tropical moisture coming out of the Pacific.

Coverage of flood watches (dark green) as of Thursday morning. (Pivotal Weather)

Much of interior Arizona is in a moderate risk (level 3/4) for excessive rainfall and flooding tomorrow. Slight risks (2/4) cover much of the rest of the region including for today and Saturday, as well as Sunday and Monday in southeast Arizona and New Mexico. Moisture surges north today and tomorrow, peaking in interior Arizona tomorrow afternoon into Saturday before sagging back south again Sunday and Monday.

A moderate risk (level 3/4) for excessive rainfall and flooding is in place tomorrow from the Phoenix area through Flagstaff and parts of the Grand Canyon. (Pivotal Weather)

All told, we could see as much as 2 to 4 inches of rain across Arizona, portions of southwest Colorado, and Utah. Additional heavy rain will be possible into New Mexico heading into the weekend.

Significant rainfall is likely across Arizona, New Mexico, western Colorado, and Utah. (Pivotal Weather)

While this is assuredly welcome rainfall, there will likely be some flash flooding and potentially some serious flash flooding as a result of this event over the next couple days. This is especially important in parts of the desert. If you are visiting the national parks in this region, particularly with the government shutdown possibly reducing staffing in some spots, please make sure you are well aware of your location, surroundings, and the risk of flash flooding. There are some washes, rivers, and canyons that are notorious for severe, rapid-onset flash flooding that can stun you. So please exercise extreme caution, especially if hiking in this part of the country.

Notable coastal impacts from a storm growing more likely from the Mid-Atlantic through New England this weekend

In brief: The potential for significantly impactful coastal storm continues from the Carolinas to perhaps as far north as New England, with significant marine and beachfront impacts becoming more likely. Tropical Storm Jerry is disorganized this morning, but it will take a swipe at the far northeast Leeward Islands tomorrow night or Friday, perhaps while becoming a hurricane. Meanwhile, the potential for significant rainfall in the Southwest, courtesy of the remnants of Hurricane Priscilla continues to look high beginning Friday.

East Coast coastal storm

We’ll start today again with the latest on a likely coastal storm that will taunt the Eastern Seaboard from the Carolinas to perhaps New England from Saturday into early next week. There still remain numerous questions on track, intensity, etc., but a few updates today. First, again to be clear, this will not begin as a tropical system. This is going to be like a winter nor’easter (minus the snow) in terms of how it develops. As it interacts with the warm water off the Carolina coast, it could begin to take on a “flavor” of a tropical-type system.

A cyclone “phase-space” diagram shows how this system will start off as a frontal low (non-tropical) but it may wind its way into acquiring some tropical characteristics over time. (Florida State/Robert Hart)

We typically would call this potentially a subtropical storm, and if that’s the case it will get a name (Karen; go ahead, make your jokes now. Sorry to all Karens).

All that said, the main point: Name or not, the impacts will be virtually the same on the East Coast regardless.

So, now that we know not to focus on the name or “type” of storm it is, what will the impacts be? Well, that’s going to depend on track. A few things seem likely: Rough surf, potential for beach erosion, some element of tidal flooding, gusty winds on the coast. What are we unsure of? How strong will the winds be? Will they make it farther inland? How severe will tidal flooding be? Which location will experience the worst conditions? How long will this last? Who sees the heaviest rainfall?

(NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC)

Various models show various solutions at this point. The high-level thinking right now is that a surface low will form off the South Carolina coast on Friday and Saturday, work northward, perhaps close to Long Island or off the Jersey Shore by Monday, then either drift east out to sea, or drift back south toward North Carolina and then out to sea. Although none of this is set in stone, one thing we can say is that this could potentially be a long-duration event for folks, meaning multiple high tide cycles worth of impacts from the Outer Banks to the Jersey Shore or possibly Long Island and New England.

Heavy rain from this weekend’s coastal storm is likely from the Carolinas into New England, particularly along the immediate coastline. (Pivotal Weather)

Folks on the beachfront will want to prepare for several days of potential inconvenience, including tidal flooding and potentially significant beach erosion. Additionally, heavy rain on the immediate coast could exacerbate tidal flooding issues as well. Wind could be on the order of 40 to 60 mph in gusts on the coast, which could cause some damage as well, particularly when considering the potentially extended duration of winds.

Bottom line: A significant, complex, tricky to forecast specifics storm is coming this weekend from the Carolinas through New England.

Tropical Storm Jerry

Jerry is struggling this morning, as wind shear takes some toll on the system. It frankly looked a bit better yesterday.

Jerry is struggling a good bit on Wednesday morning. (Tropical Tidbits)

Jerry will begin approaching the northeast Leeward Islands on Thursday afternoon. As it does so, it will slow down, preparing to turn more northward. As this happens, the storm should begin to put itself together better, which will lead to a burst of intensification. Because of the close proximity of the forecast track of Jerry and the likelihood that the storm will strengthen, a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for a pile of islands: Antigua, Barbua, Anguilla, St. Kitts & Nevis, Montserrat, St. Barthelemy, St. Martin, Saint Maarten, Saba, St. Eustatius, and Guadeloupe.

(NOAA/NHC)

The NHC forecasts Jerry to become a strong category 1 hurricane, which is current stronger than most model guidance shows, a good strategy the way things have gone this summer. At this point, very few models or model ensemble members drag Jerry directly into one of the islands in the northeast Caribbean, but Antigua and Barbuda would be the closest to the center of the storm. Either way, gusty winds, tropical storm conditions, and heavy rainfall are likely in the islands there.

Jerry should turn north and eventually northeast, with decent model agreement right now on a track staying away from Bermuda.

Desert Southwest and Priscilla

Hurricane Priscilla is weakening after topping out as a major storm. It should be dropping below hurricane intensity later tonight.

(NOAA/NHC)

As Priscilla’s remnant come north, they will interact with a rather strong trough that nudges inland from the Pacific, allowing a funnel of moisture to aim into the Desert Southwest. As we’ve been talking about for several days, the potential for locally heavy rainfall is increasing, with slight risks for flooding (level 2/4) now in place from Friday through Sunday in various spots in Utah, Arizona, Colorado, and New Mexico.

Rain totals in excess of 3 inches are possible in isolated spots from the Four Corners south into the Sonoran Desert. (Pivotal Weather)

Some models show potential for even higher amounts than this in localized spots. I would expect flood watches to be posted by tomorrow for much of this region, so while the rain is mostly welcome in the long-term here, this could cause some short-term problems, particularly in Arizona and near the Four Corners.

Tropical Storm Jerry forms but more significant impacts may come from a coastal storm in the East and Hurricane Priscilla’s remnants in the West

In brief: Tropical Storm Jerry has formed and while it isn’t expected to hit land, it may make a close pass to the northeast Caribbean later this week. A coastal storm is becoming more likely off the Southeast or Mid-Atlantic which will likely cause significant marine issues and potentially heavy rain. The remnants of Hurricane Priscilla in the Pacific will deliver copious moisture to the Southwest, potentially leading to heavy rain later this week as well.

Southeast/Mid-Atlantic coastal storm

I want to start today off the Southeast because I feel like this upcoming coastal storm is going to sneak under the radar. Over the next couple of days, a cool front is going to slide south and east,

Surface weather map forecast for Thursday morning showing a cool front off the Southeast coast and low pressure over Alabama. (NOAA/WPC)

Eventually, all that will congeal off the Southeast coast by the weekend. We should see a coastal storm (non-tropical) develop off the Carolinas. The problem is that there won’t be a whole lot to shove this out to sea. So, for perhaps 2 or 3 days, this modestly strong area of low pressure is going to sit, meander, and spin somewhere off the coast of the Carolinas. Or so it appears sitting here today.

Assuming that happens, there will be issues with high surf, rip currents, tidal flooding (exacerbated perhaps by astronomically higher tides), and gusty winds. The combination could yield further beach erosion for a coastline that has seen quite a bit of hostile marine weather this summer. Interests on the coast from Georgia through New Jersey should monitor the forecast.

Tidal flooding is likely this week in the Charleston area, and it may be exacerbated next week by a coastal storm. (NWS Charleston)

Additionally, heavy rain is possible on the coast from Virginia through the Carolinas. The current rainfall forecast is calling for anywhere from 3 to 6 inches of rain near the immediate coast.

Rainfall forecast through next Tuesday showing heavy rain risk on the Mid-Atlantic coast. (Pivotal Weather)

We will keep you posted.

Tropical Storm Jerry

Off to the Atlantic to check in on Invest 95L. Welp, it’s been upgraded to Tropical Storm Jerry, again, bypassing the depression phase and just jumping right in with both feet.

Tropical Storm Jerry looks ready to get going here. (Weathernerds.org)

In all honesty, Jerry looks quite healthy, all things considered. This is clearly a tropical storm, and intensification is likely over the next few days. The biggest question is whether Jerry will impact the northeast Caribbean. Since it is intensifying rather quickly, this may help it to gain more latitude a bit faster.

(NOAA/NHC)

You can see, however, that the NHC’s opening bid on Jerry does keep the cone near or in the far northeastern islands. There are a number of ensemble members from various models that also keep the track of Jerry close to the islands. The majority do curve it north before it arrives, but it will be a fairly close call between the Virgin Islands and Antigua and Barbuda or so. Interests in those areas should monitor Jerry’s progress closely as it approaches by Thursday. I would anticipate that tropical storm conditions would be possible in some of those northeast islands on Thursday or Friday. From there, Jerry should turn north and eventually northeast. The vast majority of guidance keeps Jerry east of Bermuda for the time being.

We’ll continue to watch Jerry’s progress over the next 48 hours as it relates to the islands.

Southwest rain risks increasing

Meanwhile, as the moisture from Hurricane Priscilla in the Pacific gets funneled northward into the Desert Southwest, we will begin to see the potential for some pretty healthy rainfall in the Desert. Places like Arizona into the Four Corners will likely see locally heavy rain. You can see Priscilla’s moisture lunging northward into the Southwest over the next 3 to 5 days.

Tropical moisture will overtake the Southwest later this week. (Pivotal Weather)

Flash flooding will be an issue in spots almost certainly as long as this comes to fruition. One notable difference between this setup and the one we saw earlier this season with Lorena that failed to materialize as forecast is that there is a bit less forecast uncertainty with Priscilla. In other words, the option of a hard left turn out to sea is unlikely right now, whereas the system just sitting near Baja as a remnant is more likely. This should increase confidence somewhat in the potential for heavy rainfall in the region later this week. Rain totals continue to trend up a bit, with the latest WPC outlook calling for a healthy 1 to 3 inches across much of the region.

Rainfall of 1 to 3 inches or even more is possible in spots from Arizona into the Four Corners and New Mexico. (Pivotal Weather)

Exactly where the heaviest rain sets up shop and who sees the most will be determined later, but for now, if you have plans to visit the Southwest or you live there, be prepared for some potential disruption due to heavy rains.

Watching the Southeast later this week or weekend for a coastal storm, while Invest 95L likely spins away in the open ocean

In brief: Invest 95L continues to look likely to develop later this week as it mostly stays offshore and away from land. Hurricane Priscilla in the Pacific may deliver some decent rain chances to the Desert later this weekend. Meanwhile, a coastal/potential tropical or subtropical storm off the Southeast is beginning to show up on models this weekend. We discuss the potential for more beach erosion and coastal issues.

Invest 95L

Our Atlantic tropical wave, Invest 95L, is sitting around a 70 percent chance of development this week.

(NOAA/NHC)

95L is actually looking a bit better on satellite this morning, though it still is not quite organized just yet. Models have actually gotten a little more lukewarm on development chances here. Most indicate something akin to a tropical storm as this comes west-northwest toward the islands. It will likely curve back to the north and northeast eventually and likely before it reaches the islands.

A static satellite image of Invest 95L this morning shows more thunderstorms but not quite enough organization just yet to make it to depression intensity. (Weathernerds.org)

Models vary drastically on intensity from the typical HWRF enthusiasm of a major hurricane to various other models keeping it a lower-end tropical storm. My guess is that if this can maintain thunderstorms and get its act together sooner than later, we’ll see something of a significant hurricane, particularly as it turns northward away from land. If we sort of wax and wane the next 36 hours, we’re probably looking at a slowly intensifying system as it passes the islands to the northeast.

Either way, this does not appear to be a serious land threat, though folks in the extreme northeast Caribbean (Virgin Islands through Barbuda) should keep tabs on this in case you get broad brushed by something later this week.

Southwest US rain risk

Moving to the Pacific, Hurricane Priscilla has gotten its act together off the coast of Colima and Jalisco in Mexico. Tropical Storm Watches are posted from Puerto Vallarta to south of Manzanillo as some fringe impacts from Priscilla are possible there. Priscilla will track northwest, paralleling the coast of Mexico and Baja but likely remaining offshore.

Priscilla’s track will likely keep it offshore of Mexico, tracking it to off Baja by Saturday. (Polarwx.com/Tomer Burg)

Priscilla should peak in intensity tomorrow, close to a major hurricane. As it tracks over cooler waters off Baja, it will begin to weaken. The question from there is how much moisture it will deliver into the Southwest. This process should begin over the weekend, peaking on Sunday through Tuesday. The current rainfall forecast stops on Monday morning, but you can see a pretty widespread bit of rain across the area is forecast.

Widespread rain, possibly some areas seeing more than an inch will be possible from Arizona into New Mexico, Colorado, and Utah in the Sunday to Tuesday timeframe. (Pivotal Weather)

This is still 5 to 7 days out, so a lot can change, as we saw most recently with Lorena, where it failed to really deliver. But it is worth watching for folks in the Southwest.

Southeast coastal storm?

Another area to watch will be off the Southeast coast in about 4 or 5 days. We have a bit of a complicated setup with a cold front dropping southeast off the coast, low pressure trying to develop near the Florida Keys, and a disturbance trying to form off the Southeast. How exactly this plays out will determine a.) if it’s tropical and b.) what sorts of impacts we may see. Right now, it looks like a possible “nor’easter” type storm off the Carolina coast by the weekend. You can see how the operational European model brings all this together around 10,000 feet up.

A disturbance developing near or off the Carolina coast is possible this weekend. Invest 95L is seen passing well offshore on the right side of the loop above. (Tropical Tidbits)

The meteorological side of things is pretty complex here. This appears to be a frontal low that perhaps acquires some tropical characteristics as it develops. This would classify it as sub-tropical. However, in reality, this would be a significant coastal storm, regardless of classification, particularly along the Mid-Atlantic and Carolina coasts that have been beaten up this summer by passing storms offshore. We’ve seen numerous houses get washed away in the Outer Banks as rough seas and erosion from storms like Erin and Imelda and Humberto churn up the ocean. Another coastal storm would be suboptimal particularly so close in proximity to the Humberto/Imelda churn that we’re just moving past now.

Wave heights of 10 to 20 feet will be possible just offshore, assuming low pressure can develop off the Carolinas later this week. (Tropical Tidbits)

You can see the forecast wave heights from last night’s European model. This definitely is something to watch and monitor in the next few days for coastal folks in particular. The compounding effect of multiple storms in short proximity to each other can create some serious beach hazards and challenges on the oceanfront. More to come.