Continuing to watch the Caribbean, while we check in on some other weather news

In brief: Tropical Storm Lorenzo will dissipate soon. We continue to see hints that the Caribbean would be the place to watch later next week, but we lack any strong model support for this even at this time. Something to watch but not worry over. We also wrap up some weather news from Alaska, Colorado, California, and Mexico.

Lorenzo’s demise and Caribbean development risks next week

Tropical Storm Lorenzo is not long for this world. It is expected to dissipate later today.

Tropical Storm Lorenzo on its last legs. (Tropical Tidbits)

It may have already. Who’s to say? Either way, it’s a non-issue for anyone other than some shipping interests.

We’ve also noted that the Caribbean may see a tropical wave next week, and there has definitely been an uptick in social media postings about this area. Right now, I’m not especially impressed with model support for this area. I think one issue we are seeing is that it enters the Caribbean a little too far south initially. This proximity to South America may hinder any chance it develops. Here’s Google’s AI model ensemble members and the Euro ensemble members on Tuesday.

Perhaps this could develop, or it just may fester for a few days deep south in the Caribbean. (Google Weather Lab)

Once we get to later next week, there are some hints in the AI modeling that a disturbance could set up shop in the far southwest Caribbean, off the coast of Nicaragua or Honduras. As is typical for this time of year, movement would probably be slow and we’d be talking more about a rainfall risk than anything for portions of Central America (which as you’ll see below is not the best of news). But it’s a long way out and mostly speculative at this time. We’ll keep watching of course.

Newsy bits

I’m trying a section I want to call “Newsy bits.” I read a lot of news every day in order to keep up with what’s happening in weather and climate. Inevitably a pile of articles ends up taking up tab real estate, so in order to “keep it clean,” I’m gonna dump the tabs here.

Alaska storm recovery

First off, we noted the massive storm in western Alaska over the weekend. Well, if you want to help victims and survivors of the storm, I imagine it would be greatly appreciated. There is a post from Alaska Public Media explaining how you can help here. Very often, the best way to help is financially. The Alaska Community Foundation has setup a disaster relief fund for those areas impacted. You can access it here.

Defensible space in wildfire country

Unfortunately, the country has experienced numerous wildfire disasters in recent years. It has taught us a lot about resiliency and mitigation, however. One key element of mitigating wildfire impact and spread in communities is expanding defensible space around your home. Monterey is one of my favorite places on earth, and I found this interesting and encouraging. Defensible space inspections in the Monterey area have increased almost 300 percent year over year. The more that people do to help themselves help their communities, the better for everyone.

Colorado flooding

The Colorado Sun has the latest on the flooding in La Plata and Archuleta Counties in southwest Colorado. While the problems have been significant, the upshot is that some reservoirs are refilling after an exceptionally mediocre stretch of weather over the last year or so. Whatever the case, this was an exceptional, historic rain event for this slither of the country. The Land Desk also has a synopsis and more data on the flooding.

Mexico flooding

Major flooding has struck Mexico this month, which has thus far killed over 60 people across the country. This is a really messy story, not just because of the human toll and the disaster itself, but it seems to have been complicated by a bizarre situation with oil coating much of a flooded area in Poza Rica. There seems to be some anger about a lack of warning, and many people were only alerted to disaster by an oil company’s alarm system that they could hear. Not sure if there will be any fallout from this with their version of a national weather service.

30 day rainfall anomalies in Mexico, with parts of the west coast and Gulf of Mexico coast seeing significantly above normal rainfall. (NOAA CPC)

Mexico has been hit hard this summer with heavy rain on the order of 100 to 300 mm (4 to 12 inches) above normal in spots. Hardest hit has been the coast near the Gulf and the northwest part of the country.

More major flooding in southwest Colorado, plus a look at the Caribbean next week

In brief: Today we run down the storms that are impacting portions of the country. We have an update in Alaska, where a remnant typhoon caused horrific damage in rural western parts of the state. Major flooding is again impacting Pagosa Spring, CO this morning, even higher than this weekend’s flood. California continues to receive lots of rain and snow and even some severe weather. And the East Coast nor’easter is exiting. The tropics are of no consequence for now, but we will watch the Caribbean next week.

Storm updates

Alaska

Starting today in Alaska. We have not discussed Alaska much, not for any nefarious reasons; we just have had limited time and space to work with here. But parts of western Alaska are reeling from the remnants of Typhoon Halong that devastated some rural communities over the weekend.

Maximum wind gusts above 40 mph on Sunday in Alaska, including a 100 mph gust on the coast at Tosook Bay. (NOAA)

This isn’t the first time Alaska has been hammered by typhoon remnants. A somewhat broader event in 2022 from the remnants of Merbok caused widespread damage. But this storm broke some storm surge records by feet in parts of Alaska.

Alan Gerard has a good summary of the storm and some of the meteorology and forecast details (including asking the question about whether a lack of upper air weather balloon data due to budget cuts and staffing cuts within NOAA hindered the forecast at all). Read more at Balanced Weather.

Colorado

The San Juan River at Pagosa Springs is back up in major flood stage this morning, running about 0.1 to 0.2 feet above levels it hit this past weekend when it caused extensive flooding.

Major flooding is again occurring in Pagosa Springs, CO. (NOAA)

This is the third highest stage on record there, pushing this weekend to fourth highest. Rain totals above Pagosa Springs are nearly 7 inches since this weekend, which has allowed for this degree of flooding, prompting evacuations — again — in downtown Pagosa. More details on impacts from the flooding at the Colorado Sun.

California

We had at least one tornado warning in San Luis Obispo County overnight, but a squall line offshore approaching the Los Angeles area this morning could cause additional strong to severe storms.

Radar loop ending around 5:45PT this morning. (College of DuPage)

Heavy rain and snow continue elsewhere in the state, with the Sierra likely getting a very healthy early season snow.

East coast nor’easter

Most tidal gauges are now back below flood levels or are expected to experience minor flooding only today. Overall, tides may have underachieved some in this storm, but they still caused substantial damage.

Beach erosion evident in Ocean City, NJ yesterday; beach normally extends out several posts further on the Music Pier. (Pic via author’s mother)

Tidal levels in parts of NJ have not been this high since Sandy in 2012, though that brought significantly higher tides and waves. Still, this was able to do a number on vulnerable beaches. And at least 3 people have been killed as a result of the storm, including a freak, tragic incident in New York City.

Tropics

Lorenzo remains a non-issue this morning, as it will continue to meander in the open Atlantic, and as noted yesterday, it may do some funky maneuvering out there.

Lorenzo may be the 2025 Hurricane season’s class clown. (NOAA NHC)

There’s always one.

Meanwhile, we continue to see signs that there may finally be something in the Caribbean worth watching. Models have been up and down on this area for the better part of a month now, and it finally seems like we may have something. A tropical wave tracking west across the Atlantic won’t develop, but as it arrives in the southern Caribbean next week, it will have a chance to begin trying to organize.

The European ensemble, along with various other modeling tools suggest that development may be possible in the southern or southwest Caribbean later next week. (Weathernerds.org)

Will it happen? How strong will it get? Will it go into Central America or turn back north toward Jamaica, Cuba, or the East Coast? It’s too soon to say much of anything, especially “will it happen.” For now it remains it a late period curiosity like you’d find at a museum. Observe, don’t touch, and study it a bit closer for a few more days.

More Desert Southwest flooding possible today, strong storms in LA tonight, the nor’easter exits, and Lorenzo forms

In brief: Tropical moisture from the remnants of Raymond in the Pacific will deliver another round of potentially heavy rain to Arizona and especially southwest Colorado today. Additional flash flooding is possible. A major storm brings Sierra snow, flash flooding potential, and a chance of severe weather in Los Angeles tomorrow. The East Coast nor’easter’s tides seem to be underperforming a bit, but the winds and rain are not with gusts upwards of 70 mph in New Jersey. Tropical Storm Lorenzo formed and is no threat to land, but we are watching another possible system behind that.

West Coast storms bring high impacts

After Saturday flooding in Colorado, we had quite an active Sunday in the Phoenix area. Rain totals were anywhere from 1 to 3 inches across the Valley. Sky Harbor’s 1.97″ of rain for the day was the fourth wettest October day on record, as well as the 16th wettest day overall going back to 1895.

36-hour rain totals of around 1″ or more ending on Monday morning in the Phoenix metro. (NOAA)

There was a Flash Flood Emergency issued at one point east of Phoenix in Pinal County. Water rescues were needed in Buckeye, freeways flooded in Mesa, and Globe, AZ reported flooding just weeks after deadly flooding hit. Overall, it was a very active Sunday in the desert.

Today, flood watches remain posted in southern Arizona, as well as in southwest Colorado, which experienced flooding on Saturday night. Another round of very heavy rain and tropical moisture is going to impact Colorado today, with perhaps as much as 1 to 2 inches or even more falling.

(NWS Grand Junction)

With the flood watch posted in Arizona, more of a localized type flooding may unfold there. Highest total rainfall looks to be north of Tucson and east of Phoenix today.

(NWS Tucson)

Meanwhile, the first big winter storm of the season will plow into California today and tomorrow with heavy rain, heavy snow in the Sierra, and even a chance of severe storms in the LA Basin. A marginal risk (level 1/5) for severe weather is posted there, primarily due to the potential for a squall line and isolated potential rotating cells on Tuesday morning. Basically, the chance of some strong wind gusts is in place, along with the chance of an isolated tornado for Los Angeles, mainly later tonight and early Tuesday morning.

A minor chance of an isolated tornado or waterspout exists in the Los Angeles area on Tuesday morning. (NOAA SPC)

Heavy rain may also produce localized flash flooding, and flood watches have been issued for various burn scars in southern California, including Palisades and Eaton. Flood Watches are also posted for the Sierra foothills. Winter storm warnings are posted in the Sierra above 5,500 feet now for 1 to perhaps as much as 3 feet of snow.

(NWS Sacramento)

The storm should clear from northwest to southeast later tomorrow and Wednesday.

East coast nor’easter performing with mixed results

We had another bit of an underperformance on high tides on the Jersey Shore with the midnight tide cycle. There is one more to come early this afternoon, and that will again at least threaten high-end moderate to major coastal flooding. At this point it also looks as though the tide cycle may allow for tide levels to come in a little under the forecast.

Tide forecast for Atlantic City shows the observed tide levels continuing to lag the forecast tide levels by a good margin, which may indicate that we’ll come in closer to moderate than major tidal flooding this afternoon. (NOAA)

Why this is? I’m not entirely sure. But it’s been true up and down the Jersey Shore since yesterday. The forecasts farther south have been somewhat better. Tides to the north seem to have been fairly close as well, though perhaps a little higher than forecast in spots. Whatever the case, there is tidal flooding. It’s at least minor to moderate. And it will continue today for at least one more tide cycle this afternoon.

Heading into the rest of the week, tides will be elevated but should produce merely minor to no flooding.

The rain forecast has mostly checked in close to verification with 1 to 3 inches on the coast. Healthy, beneficial rains have occurred in southern New England as well.

Estimated rainfall totals over the last few days. (Pivotal Weather)

Wind gusts have also done quite close to forecast. We did even have a 70 mph gust reported at Barnegat Light on LBI in New Jersey. Several other locations got above 60 mph as well.

Heading into the rest of today, conditions should slowly improve across the region. Winds will slowly back off as the day goes on. Rain should exit tonight. Tides should ease up a bit after this afternoon.

Tropics: Lorenzo…and more?

We did it. We again went from Invest directly to tropical storm. Lorenzo formed this morning in the open Atlantic. And that is where it shall stay.

Lorenzo is expected to quickly turn out to sea, but it may linger south of the Azores for a bit. (NOAA NHC)

Lorenzo is expected to hook north and northeast and then east. There are some models trying to bring it back south and west. We will see if that happens, but every season seems to have one storm that does some sort of “special” track in the Atlantic. Lorenzo may be that storm this year. It is currently expected to remain a tropical storm.

Beyond Lorenzo, we are seeing some signs of another wave in the Atlantic at a very far south latitude that tries to sneak under everything and make it into the Caribbean. That would be quite out of the realm of normal for this late in the season. For now, it’s just speculation. But don’t be surprised if we start seeing some late season Caribbean noise (which is normal) in about 8 or 9 days. But suffice to say, the route there may be somewhat peculiar. We’ll keep watching.

Significant storms on both coasts bring tidal flooding and beach erosion in the East and heavy mountain snow in the Sierra

In brief: There have been no big changes to the coastal storm forecast on the East Coast, with major tidal flooding and beach erosion expected from northeast North Carolina up into Long Island today and tomorrow. The next Atlantic system is not a land concern. Heavy rain in the Southwest did lead to significant flooding in southwest Colorado, with more rain on the way. And the West Coast will see an early season winter storm this week, with a couple feet of snow in the Sierra and beneficial rain across much of California.

Major coastal storm

In general, not a whole heck of a lot has changed since yesterday in terms of forecast impacts for the Mid-Atlantic coast between North Carolina and New Jersey. Starting in Atlantic City, three consecutive 8 foot high tides are expected on the beachfront today and tomorrow.

(NOAA)

Atlantic City has only exceeded 8 foot tide levels 8 previous times (last with Sandy in 2012 at 8.8 feet). So to get close 3 straight cycles would be impressive. You have to consider not just the level of the tide, but the compound risk of multiple significant high tides. Coastal flooding will be firmly moderate to perhaps major at times through tomorrow.

Moderate to major coastal flooding will continue up and down the coast from Duck, NC through Long Island into tomorrow. Inundation mapping for the New York City metro is available through the NWS NYC forecast office here.

Screen grab from Cape May webcam this morning. (NJbeachcams.com)

In addition, rough seas, significant to major beach erosion, and strong winds will continue as well. Wind gusts of 45 to 55 mph and perhaps near 60 mph will be possible on the coastline.

Strong winds are likely on the coastline, dropping off substantially as you work inland. (NWS Mount Holly/Philadelphia)

Gusty winds will extend into the NYC area, east across Long Island, strongest near Montauk. Gusty winds will continue into Monday, though today should be the worst.

Rain totals have backed off a little bit, with 1 to 3 inches now expected from Jersey into southern New England, highest in southeast Massachusetts and near the Cape. Upwards of perhaps 3 to 4 inches will be possible there.

Rain totals over the next 7 days show the heaviest rains on the Jersey Shore, eastern Long Island, and southeast New England. (Pivotal Weather)

The whole system will slowly drift east tomorrow and Tuesday, but it will linger hundreds of miles offshore. This could keep surf high and tides slightly elevated well into this coming week.

Overall, a big time nor’easter for October and still looking like the biggest one since 2016 for Jersey and Delaware.

Tropical Atlantic

Jerry is now technically off the board, but we’ve got a 50 percent area showing up farther out in the Atlantic. This is Invest 97L, and it is no threat to land. However, there is an increasing chance that this is going to eventually acquire the name Lorenzo.

Invest 97L may produce Lorenzo in a few days. It is no threat to land. (NOAA NHC)

Outside of that, it looks free and clear the next 7 days. Where do we watch heading into the tail end of October? Well, the areas are pretty clear: the southern Gulf, northwest Caribbean, and southwest Atlantic.

Storm origin points in the final 10 days of October. (NOAA NHC)

Generally, most storms will either meander or eventually quickly turn north or northeast. For now, we’ve got nothing on the radar, but we want to give you an idea of where to look as hurricane season approaches the finish line.

Desert Southwest flooding

Parts of Pagosa Springs, CO were evacuated due to flooding on the San Juan River, which hit major flood stage overnight. The crest of 12.66 feet appears to be highest at this location since 1927.

Major flooding forced the evacuation of some parts of Pagosa Springs overnight (NOAA)

Total rainfall over the last 2 days has been on the order of 2 to 4 inches with even higher amounts in some of the mountains in southwest Colorado. While this rain is certainly beneficial to the overall water supply in the Southwest, it surely can come with some pain in the short-term.

48 hour rain totals in southwest Colorado (NOAA)

Rain today will focus mainly on southern Arizona, while another round of rain and storms is expected to the north on Monday, with perhaps another 1 to 2 inches of rain possible in southwest Colorado.

Rainfall over the next couple days (mainly Monday) will be another 1 to 2 inches with locally higher amounts in southwest Colorado. (Pivotal Weather)

West Coast storm

As noted yesterday, an early season winter storm will pound California early this week. Snow levels should be at or above 6,000 feet, where as much as 1 to 3 feet is possible in the Sierra, mainly south of Highway 50. Storm duration will go from tomorrow into Wednesday.

Rain totals forecast for the next 5 days. (Pivotal Weather)

Snow will also occur farther north in the mountains of Montana and northern Idaho, as well as in parts of Washington and Oregon.

It does appear that this storm will also extend a bit farther south now, to include the LA Basin. Rain totals of 1 to 3 inches in the mountains and perhaps up to an inch in valley locations. No significant flash flooding is expected from this storm, but there will likely be some minor issues due to ponding, travel disruption, and potentially some minor debris flow concerns in burn scar areas. No flood watches are currently posted. Either way, there is no denying that this is a good sign to get some snowpack and rain early in the season, especially in what is expected to be a La Niña winter, where southern California historically leans a bit drier (not a guarantee).

The weather should calm down nationally after midweek.