Bermuda handles Imelda fine, while the UK anticipates Storm Amy this weekend

In brief: Bermuda managed Imelda just fine based on reports today, and now Imelda heads out to sea. Storm Amy, which includes some influence from Humberto will hammer the Scottish Highlands with gusty winds this weekend. Two new areas of interest showed up today in the Atlantic, one near Florida (primarily a rainmaker) and the other in the central Atlantic (may be worth monitoring in the islands).

Hurricane/Post-Tropical Imelda

According to the Royal Gazette of Bermuda, the island managed to get through Imelda without a ton of trouble. No casualties and no serious damage were reported. “By all accounts, the resilience of our island and its people have withstood the test. Because that’s what we do.” Bermuda gets hit fairly often, so they’re generally well-prepared for storms like this, and it’s not surprising that even a fascinating, challenging storm like Imelda was taken in stride there.

(NOAA/NHC)

Imelda will now become post-tropical and head out to sea, weakening below hurricane intensity tomorrow. Tropical Storm Warnings will likely be discontinued this afternoon on Bermuda.

Humberto’s remnants and Storm Amy in the UK

From here, Imelda will slowly follow Humberto out to sea, though at this point, it is not expected to produce a significant storm for Europe like Humberto’s remnants will help fuel with Storm Amy. An Amber Warning for wind is posted for northwestern portions of Scotland from Friday evening through Saturday morning (UK time).

UK alerts for Storm Amy this weekend. (UK Met Office)

In the UK, warnings are issued on a yellow-amber-red scale, with red being the highest impact risk. In this case, amber warnings indicate significant risk but not necessarily the highest risk. According to the Met Office, “Storm Amy will bring a spell of damaging winds, initially in western areas during Friday evening before gradually transferring northeastwards through the night and into early Saturday. During this period, wind gusts of 60-70 mph are likely fairly widely, and may exceed 95 mph in more exposed areas. This is likely to lead to travel and power disruption.”

You can see on the European model how a small corridor of purple tracks just north of Northern Ireland, through the Outer Hebrides and into the upper reaches (Highlands) of Scotland.

Strong winds associated with Storm Amy will track across the Outer Hebrides & Scottish Highlands. (Weathernerds.org)

So this will certainly be an impactful storm in this region.

Just a quick note on naming storms in Europe. Storms are named in Ireland, the UK, or Netherlands when they’re expected to cause significant impacts, “medium” or “high.” The BBC has a good article explaining why, how, and what the name list is for the upcoming cold season. Wind is the main concern with these storms, but they also look at other impacts too. In Amy’s case, the amber warnings are only posted for wind.

Rest of the tropics

With Humberto and Imelda exiting the outlook, we replace them with two new participants today! Please welcome a 10 percent area near Florida and a 20 percent area in the open Atlantic.

(NOAA/NHC)

Starting in the Atlantic, this area is showing a 20 percent chance of development next week, mainly east of the islands. We’re a long way out, however there is actually good model agreement on some kind of organization in the central Atlantic by midweek next week.

Models showing decent development risk in the central Atlantic by next week. Above, you see various Google AI model ensemble members and the classic European ensemble model, with a fairly strong signal somewhere east of the islands. (Google Weather Lab)

We have a long way to go with this one. Eventually, like most Atlantic activity this time of year, the system, should it develop will likely turn out to sea. Where that happens is TBD. So, for folks in the Caribbean islands, it’s a good idea to check back in on this in a couple days to see where things stand.

Closer to home, there is a low-end chance of development near Florida. Models are mostly unexcited by this area in terms of possible tropical development. However, there is a strong signal for locally heavy rainfall on the coast of Florida. In fact, the next week or so could see close to double digit rain totals on Florida’s east coast.

The rainfall forecast for Florida over the next week. (Pivotal Weather)

There will likely be some urban flooding concerns from time to time, especially between Fort Lauderdale and Daytona. The overall pattern would support a slow northwest drift to any low pressure that develops. This will also keep persistent onshore flow going in Florida. That leads to rip currents, rough surf, and generally hazardous marine conditions in Florida.

Rip currents, rough surf, and gusty winds will pepper the Florida coast over the next several days. (NWS Miami)

If you’re vacationing in Florida this weekend, just be advised to use caution if you venture into the water.

We’ll keep tabs on this one in the coming days to ensure nothing funky happens.

Imelda will plow through Bermuda tonight, while Humberto helps add fuel to Storm Amy in the UK

In brief: Hurricane Imelda will impact Bermuda today as a raucous hurricane, but it is moving quickly so it exits tomorrow. Hurricane conditions will arrive later today and through tonight, though there is some chance that the worst will end up south of Bermuda. Either way, a quick hitting strong storm. Meanwhile, we talk more about the complex situation between Humberto and Imelda that has occurred, and where it all goes next.

Hurricane Imelda

Imelda is a strong category 1 storm, headed for category 2 eventually later today. Obviously, a hurricane warning is in effect for Bermuda, and conditions are expected to deteriorate later today.

Imelda is expected to pass over or very near Bermuda by the overnight hours. (NOAA/NHC)

Imelda’s exact track maybe nudged a hair south overnight, which could push the center south of Bermuda. Either way, and no matter how I write this, it’s going to sound inappropriate, Imelda has a robust backside.

Imelda has a serious western semicircle, which will allow Bermuda to feel hurricane impacts, whether Imelda tracks over or south of the island. (Tropical Tidbits)

So hurricane impacts are almost a certainty on Bermuda. But whether or not we can avoid the potent winds on the southwest side that have been discussed this week as part of a “sting jet” scenario remains to be seen. A track just south of Bermuda probably avoids the worst-case scenario for Imelda specifically, but it still provides plenty of problems.

The good news is that Imelda is moving swiftly, and Bermuda should see calmer conditions and clearing as early as tomorrow morning. From here, Imelda will head further out to sea, not a land threat for now, though the exact trajectory becomes more uncertain in 3 or 4 days.

Imelda & Humberto

Michael Lowry dug up a great statistic yesterday that showed Humberto and Imelda were the two closest hurricanes in the Atlantic basin in the satellite era.

Michael Lowry on Twitter/X

And, frankly, it’s not even close. We did see them both interact with one another yesterday in a somewhat interesting way, via a bit of a Fujiwhara effect. You can see that on this satellite loop from the College of DuPage. If you look closely, you see Humberto get pulled back north and west a smidge on Tuesday, as Imelda begins to undercut the storm.

From here, Humberto essentially disintegrates, while Imelda becomes dominant and gobbles up some of what’s left of Humberto on the way out to sea. The rest of Humberto’s remnants get stretched out into the overall weather pattern across the Atlantic, and that may help also give a boost to Storm Amy, which is expected in the British Isles Friday and Saturday.

Imelda takes over for Humberto in the Atlantic, but Humberto’s remnants will help fuel a major European storm this weekend. (Weathernerds.org)

But is interesting to see the model data showing Humberto and Imelda basically in a little cocoon together last night into today before Humberto just gets wrecked. A fascinating meteorology unfolding in the Atlantic that may make someone’s dissertation one day.

Last note: Remember Gabrielle? Well, it brought flooding to Ibiza in the Mediterranean. Nothing to rave about there.

Complicated Hurricane Imelda continues to target Bermuda by late Wednesday

In brief: Imelda will have a complex journey to Bermuda over the next couple days, dealing with both external risks to intensification, as well as jet stream support for its intensification as it transitions into an extratropical storm. The end result: Significant storm impacts for Bermuda are expected, with strong winds and rough seas. Imelda and Humberto will continue to combine for rough seas, tidal flooding, beach erosion, and rip currents up and down the Atlantic Seaboard.

Hurricane Imelda

(NOAA/NHC)

I feel like each day we’ve had some sort of new classification of Imelda. We went from PTC on Friday to depression on Sunday to storm on Monday to hurricane today.

Imelda’s satellite image leaves a bit to be desired this morning, but it’s still a pretty robust storm. (Tropical Tidbits)

Imelda was upgraded to a hurricane earlier this morning, based on recon data. Further strengthening is expected, however like most everything with Imelda, it’s been complex. In Hollywood parlance: The system itself sits in a nice little cocoon, but it is surrounded by hostile forces seeking to attack and destroy it. Shear and dry air surround half the storm right now, and while it is currently able to strengthen over the warm water, what happens from here is questionable.

Imelda’s environment is…tricky to say the least. (University of Wisconsin CIMSS)

Intensification will probably be modest over the next 24 hours, which would slowly nudge it up the category 1 scale. Odds of significant rapid intensification have dropped today. And the odds of a major hurricane have also. But what is interesting is that as Imelda approaches Bermuda, it will begin to undergo transition to an extratropical storm. And sometimes, sloppy storms like this one just need that nudge from the jet stream to rev them up.

Imelda’s winds will actually increase tomorrow as it approaches Bermuda, even as it slowly transitions from hurricane to powerful extratropical storm. Humberto basically falls apart ahead of it and gets gobbled up by Imelda. (Weathernerds.org)

In fact, you can see the lower-level wind forecast from the European model for tomorrow into Thursday above. Notice how Imelda (approaching from the lower left) sees a burst of wind later tomorrow (winds over 100 mph down to about 5,000 feet based on this outlook). This is what could end up impacting Bermuda as it approaches late tomorrow and very early Thursday morning.

Hurricane Watches are posted for Bermuda, and I would expect those to get upgraded to warnings soon.

Track-wise, there is good agreement on a track that comes close to a direct hit on Bermuda. However, as you see above, the wind field from Imelda is going to be somewhat broad and potent, so the impacts may be similar regardless of the exact track in this instance. Rainfall of 2 to 4 inches is expected in Bermuda, which could cause some localized flooding.

On the U.S. East Coast, the northern shores of the Caribbean, the Bahamas, and parts of Atlantic Canada, there will continue to be rough surf, beach erosion, rip currents, and tidal flooding risk as a result of both Humberto and Imelda. This will take a couple days to subside. Caution is continued to be advised.

Elsewhere, Humberto is on the way out, as noted. We should have a breather after Imelda dissipates later this week. We’ll then turn our attention to whatever comes next, which may or may not be in the Caribbean. Model “noise” is inching up a bit late, but there remains no real signal. Good news for now.

Imelda may aim for Bermuda as it follows Humberto off to the northeast this week

In brief: Imelda continues to look to confidently turn away from the Southeast this week, but the threat to Bermuda has increased a good bit. Imelda will likely strengthen into a formidable hurricane as it exits toward Bermuda. Humberto should graze Bermuda with some gusty winds and rain before that occurs. Rough surf, tidal flooding, and beach erosion will all be possible on the Eastern Seaboard.

Tropical Storm Imelda

Just as a side bar: For our Texas readers, you may very well remember Tropical Storm Imelda in 2019, which was just a gutting storm for parts of the region, especially east of Houston through Beaumont. Nearly 45 inches of rain fell just southwest of Fannett between Winnie and Beaumont. Despite this, the name was retained for future storm lists. Over $5 billion in damage was caused by Imelda, and the only more damaging storm to not have its name retired was Hurricane Sally in 2020. I have opinions about that decision, but I’ll leave it there. We have a new Imelda now, and that’s what we’ll focus on.

Tropical Storm Imelda is expected to become a hurricane tomorrow as it turns northeast away from land — for now. Bermuda will want to follow this closely. (NOAA/NHC)

This morning, Imelda is gradually organizing in the Bahamas. It looks rather impressive on satellite, but that’s not yet translating into intensification per the Hurricane Hunters flying the storm earlier this morning. But it would appear the “bones” are in place to build a more organized, intense storm in time.

Imelda isn’t yet intensifying much, but it’s getting better organized this morning. (Tropical Tidbits)

Imelda will slowly intensify today or tonight before perhaps undergoing a burst of more rapid intensification tomorrow. The NHC tops Imelda off at a high-end category 1 storm on Wednesday or Thursday, while some of the model guidance is pushing category 2 now. Unfortunately, it appears that the peak intensity will occur around the time the storm is approaching Bermuda. Simultaneous to this, Imelda will be transitioning from a purely tropical storm to an extratropical storm. As this occurs, it’s possible that Imelda will maintain or even enhance its wind profile some.

The takeaway in all this? Bermuda should be following Imelda closely.

For as much heartburn as Imelda’s track caused us last week, the models are in strikingly decent agreement today.

Imelda’s track is high confidence through about 72 hours as it approaches Bermuda. Confidence drops a bit beyond that. (Polarwx.com/Tomer Burg)

There is very strong model agreement in a hard right turn as Imelda strengthens and follows Humberto. Exactly where it passes Bermuda, a tiny speck in a large blue sea remains to be seen, and that is important. While we tell folks not to focus so much on the track specifics, these sorts of close passes can mean the difference between moderate or more severe impacts. So again, Bermuda should pay attention, and we may see hurricane watches hoisted there by tonight.

In terms of the rainfall from Imelda, welllllll.

Rainfall is now not expected to cause serious problems in the Carolinas. (NOAA/WPC)

We could see as much as an inch or two on the immediate coast between Charleston and Wilmington, but otherwise, most places should see less than an inch, probably even less than a half-inch. Back on Friday we noted that the GFS model, which kept the storm offshore and delivered notable but lower-end rain totals was a nice “floor” forecast. Turns out even that was too much. But this is why you never settle on one model and one outcome, particularly before a storm develops. There’s a reason we couch our forecast words in time-sensitive language like “for now,” “at this time,” or “currently.” It’s an evolution, not a guarantee. I don’t think too many folks in the Carolinas will complain.

There will be impacts between Humberto and Imelda for rough surf, tidal flooding, and beach erosion. Minor to moderate tidal flooding is expected from the Charleston through Norfolk areas, perhaps even up to the Jersey Shore. This will pick up by Wednesday and Thursday.

Tidal forecast in the Norfolk area this week. (NOAA/NWS)

In addition to all this, rip currents are going to be significant issue along most of the Eastern Seaboard through the week. Again, if you’re a surfer, be aware and safe as most of you always try to be. Others should ensure they are only swimming on beaches that have lifeguards and follow all flags and warnings.

Hurricane Humberto

Humberto remains a major hurricane this morning, with maximum sustained category 4 winds of 145 mph.

Humberto should begin weakening soon, but it may still deliver tropical storm conditions to Bermuda on the way out ahead of Imelda’s arrival. (NOAA NHC)

Humberto will gradually be weakening in the coming 48 hours, but as it passes Bermuda, it will deliver some gusty winds and a couple inches of rain prior to Imelda’s much stronger impacts Wednesday night and Thursday. Humberto offers some valuable lessons that we will get into later this week.

Elsewhere

Other than some extreme warmth across parts of the country, with places like Minneapolis expected to be 20 to 25 degrees warmer than normal later this week, it’s quiet. There’s a flood watch in the Ruidoso area in New Mexico due to some potentially locally heavy rain there. There is a weak disturbance in the Gulf that’s expected to drop south into the Bay of Campeche and eventually Mexico, so some heavy rain is possible with that.

Up to 100 mm of rain is possible for parts of Veracruz perhaps over the next 5 days. (Pivotal Weather)

Other than that, we’ve got little to discuss.