In brief: Imelda continues to look to confidently turn away from the Southeast this week, but the threat to Bermuda has increased a good bit. Imelda will likely strengthen into a formidable hurricane as it exits toward Bermuda. Humberto should graze Bermuda with some gusty winds and rain before that occurs. Rough surf, tidal flooding, and beach erosion will all be possible on the Eastern Seaboard.
Tropical Storm Imelda
Just as a side bar: For our Texas readers, you may very well remember Tropical Storm Imelda in 2019, which was just a gutting storm for parts of the region, especially east of Houston through Beaumont. Nearly 45 inches of rain fell just southwest of Fannett between Winnie and Beaumont. Despite this, the name was retained for future storm lists. Over $5 billion in damage was caused by Imelda, and the only more damaging storm to not have its name retired was Hurricane Sally in 2020. I have opinions about that decision, but I’ll leave it there. We have a new Imelda now, and that’s what we’ll focus on.

This morning, Imelda is gradually organizing in the Bahamas. It looks rather impressive on satellite, but that’s not yet translating into intensification per the Hurricane Hunters flying the storm earlier this morning. But it would appear the “bones” are in place to build a more organized, intense storm in time.

Imelda will slowly intensify today or tonight before perhaps undergoing a burst of more rapid intensification tomorrow. The NHC tops Imelda off at a high-end category 1 storm on Wednesday or Thursday, while some of the model guidance is pushing category 2 now. Unfortunately, it appears that the peak intensity will occur around the time the storm is approaching Bermuda. Simultaneous to this, Imelda will be transitioning from a purely tropical storm to an extratropical storm. As this occurs, it’s possible that Imelda will maintain or even enhance its wind profile some.
The takeaway in all this? Bermuda should be following Imelda closely.
For as much heartburn as Imelda’s track caused us last week, the models are in strikingly decent agreement today.

There is very strong model agreement in a hard right turn as Imelda strengthens and follows Humberto. Exactly where it passes Bermuda, a tiny speck in a large blue sea remains to be seen, and that is important. While we tell folks not to focus so much on the track specifics, these sorts of close passes can mean the difference between moderate or more severe impacts. So again, Bermuda should pay attention, and we may see hurricane watches hoisted there by tonight.
In terms of the rainfall from Imelda, welllllll.
We could see as much as an inch or two on the immediate coast between Charleston and Wilmington, but otherwise, most places should see less than an inch, probably even less than a half-inch. Back on Friday we noted that the GFS model, which kept the storm offshore and delivered notable but lower-end rain totals was a nice “floor” forecast. Turns out even that was too much. But this is why you never settle on one model and one outcome, particularly before a storm develops. There’s a reason we couch our forecast words in time-sensitive language like “for now,” “at this time,” or “currently.” It’s an evolution, not a guarantee. I don’t think too many folks in the Carolinas will complain.
There will be impacts between Humberto and Imelda for rough surf, tidal flooding, and beach erosion. Minor to moderate tidal flooding is expected from the Charleston through Norfolk areas, perhaps even up to the Jersey Shore. This will pick up by Wednesday and Thursday.
In addition to all this, rip currents are going to be significant issue along most of the Eastern Seaboard through the week. Again, if you’re a surfer, be aware and safe as most of you always try to be. Others should ensure they are only swimming on beaches that have lifeguards and follow all flags and warnings.
Hurricane Humberto
Humberto remains a major hurricane this morning, with maximum sustained category 4 winds of 145 mph.

Humberto will gradually be weakening in the coming 48 hours, but as it passes Bermuda, it will deliver some gusty winds and a couple inches of rain prior to Imelda’s much stronger impacts Wednesday night and Thursday. Humberto offers some valuable lessons that we will get into later this week.
Elsewhere
Other than some extreme warmth across parts of the country, with places like Minneapolis expected to be 20 to 25 degrees warmer than normal later this week, it’s quiet. There’s a flood watch in the Ruidoso area in New Mexico due to some potentially locally heavy rain there. There is a weak disturbance in the Gulf that’s expected to drop south into the Bay of Campeche and eventually Mexico, so some heavy rain is possible with that.

Other than that, we’ve got little to discuss.