In brief: We have our first tropics themed forecast post of the season today, as heavy rainfall in the Southeast may also have some lower-end tropical entanglement to watch. We also discuss the coverage plan for the season and some other weatherly tidbits.
The Eyewall in 2026
Happy Wednesday. We’re getting closer to hurricane season, which is usually when the pace of our posts increases! My apologies to your inbox. Anyway, our plan for this coming season is much like it has been the last few seasons of The Eyewall: We will post every day or two and more frequently when storms are threatening. There may be times where we have to take a few extra days off, as we’re both navigating life! But as always, all of our posts will be public facing and freely available, and we will keep comments open to all this season. We will continue to post both on Substack and The Eyewall’s website, so readers can pick the source best for them. We certainly would love for you to subscribe to our Substack, as it is our way of being able to send out emailed posts en masse and also offers a way to support our work. Paying members support our work for all, but we will hopefully put at least something together unique for you as well at some point later this year, be it a live chat, AMA, or something else. Your support and generosity are greatly appreciated. With my eventual relocation from Houston to the Northeast, I will also probably be including a few more Northeast Corridor related nuggets in here too.
Severe Weather: Not entirely dormant
We’re actually likely heading into a period of somewhat calmer conditions over the coming days, as severe weather risks focus mostly on localized areas from time to time.
The days 4 to 8 severe weather outlook is rather uneventful. (Pivotal Weather)
Again, that’s not to say severe weather won’t happen. It probably will. It’s May, and we’re heading into June. However, any sort of large scale, significant or long-duration events don’t seem likely to crop up anytime soon. It will be stormy in spots, however, including today in the Mid-Atlantic where a slight risk (level 2/5) is in place.
Today’s severe weather risk includes DC, Richmond, and Delmarva. (NOAA SPC)
Flooding chances: Watching the Southeast
And that dovetails into our flooding conversation. It does look quite wet over the next 7 to 10 days or so in the South.
Forecast rain from the NWS over the next 7 days. (Pivotal Weather)
Texas has seen a good deal of rain over the last 7 to 10 days, and while storms will continue to pester the state at times, the better chances will probably shift into the Panhandle and New Mexico as we go into next week. We’ll probably have to start watching some of the burn scars in New Mexico for flash flooding potential.
However, the Southeast is where the focus will now be for the most heavy rain and flooding potential. Precip over the next 2 weeks is expected to average well above normal in Florida and along the eastern Gulf Coast.
(NWS Jacksonville)
While these areas have been dry, obviously when you start talking about isolated pockets of 4 to 8 inches of rain, even over a 10-to-14-day period, that’s a lot and can lead to flooding risk.
Tropics: Something weak in the Gulf stirring in early June? If you squint.
And that dovetails into our tropics conversation. Hurricane season begins on Monday, if you were not aware. We don’t currently see any real threats at this point. That said, within this funnel of moisture aimed at Florida and the Southeast and Gulf Coast, we may begin to see the risk of a disturbance forming by accident in the Gulf.
A very, very small number of European ensemble members indicate that something could attempt to form within this otherwise rainy pattern in the eastern Gulf over the next 2 weeks. (Google Weather Lab)
What does that mean? We’re heading into June, so we’re not talking about anything aesthetically pleasing or textbook here. Early season systems tend to be weak and sloppy but moisture laden. And they often form in the Gulf. With all this moisture being directed south to north across the Gulf, there will inevitably be a disturbance or two in the flow. When that happens, you may briefly open a window for tropical development. Right now, odds favor that *not* happening, but I just want to plant the seed, a.) because again, to emphasize, early season systems are not usually strong and b.) this is definitely a high moisture pattern capable of producing flooding.
Early June Atlantic tropical activity usually forms in the eastern Gulf, far northwest Caribbean or off the Florida coast. (NOAA NHC)
When could this happen? Later next week or weekend. Based on the map from the European ensemble shown near the top of this section, that seems to be the timeframe we may be looking at. Notably, AI modeling, both from the European Centre and from Google show nothing really.
What should happen, regardless, is a pickup in early season activity in the Eastern Pacific, however. Models hint at some activity there.
The East Pacific is quite warm and should become more hospitable toward tropical development over the next few weeks. (Weathernerds.org)
So, do you need to worry about a Gulf system? No, but you should be monitoring rainfall forecasts over the next 10 days in Florida and along the eastern Gulf Coast. More to come!
In brief: Our 2025 Atlantic hurricane season recap concludes with part 3, taking us from the delicate ballet between Humberto and Imelda through the season finale with Melissa.
It would be tough to separate out Humberto and Imelda, as they were both quite literally intertwined with one another during their life cycles.
Imelda and Humberto about 530 miles apart. (NOAA)
Humberto
Humberto’s life cycle began on September 24th, forming as a tropical storm in the morning. Even early on, it was apparent that Imelda and Humberto may interact with one another at some point during their life cycle.
GFS model forecast from September 24, 2025 showing interaction between Imelda and Humberto. (Weathernerds.org)
About 36 hours after forming, Humberto had become a formidable tropical storm with 70 mph winds. Humberto basically stalled out for about a day and maintained intensity before slowly resuming its track. Once it did this, Humberto exploded, tapping into abnormally warm ocean temperatures and revving up from a strong tropical storm to a category 5 hurricane in less than 2 days. The Atlantic subtropics were near record warm for that time of year, meaning Humberto had copious amounts of warm water to feast on. Humberto reached peak intensity on September 27th, settling in around 160 mph for maximum sustained winds.
Hurricane Humberto near peak intensity. (College of DuPage)
Shortly after peaking as a category 5, Humberto underwent an eyewall replacement cycle and began to slowly weaken on the 28th. It dropped to 140 mph before stabilizing and restrengthening to 145 mph on the 29th. After that, Humberto began to weaken quickly. 24 hours after going back up to 145 mph, Humberto had weakened to 80 mph. Humberto turned north, northeast, and east, merging into an upper-level trough and associated cold front by September 30th.
(NOAA NHC)
The GFS and Google Deep Mind’s ensemble performed well during this storm for track, and Google’s Deep Mind, along with consensus aids and the HWRF did well on intensity. The HWRF will often do well with high intensity hurricanes, as it tends to perform best in environments where storms have significant intensification potential.
Imelda
Now, Imelda was a much different animal. Imelda sprung to life officially on the evening of September 27th. Advisories for a potential tropical cyclone had been issued prior to that point given the likelihood of development and proximity to land. By the following afternoon, Imelda got its name. Imelda struck Great Abaco Island in the Bahamas on the morning of the 29th with maximum sustained winds of 50 mph. From there, Imelda drifted northward, eventually strengthening into a hurricane on the 30th. It slowed down then as Humberto passed to the east, then picked up speed again, peaking in intensity on October 1st, with winds just above 90 mph. That evening it passed immediately south of Bermuda, impacting the island with strong winds and heavy rain. By the next day, Imelda had become extratropical. Imelda eventually got absorbed into the same general system that absorbed Humberto about 5 days previously by October 3rd or 4th.
Hurricane Imelda’s track. (NOAA NHC)
While Imelda and Humberto didn’t directly interact with one another, Humberto’s influence had a big impact on Imelda’s final track. It also had a big impact on the model guidance forecasting Imelda and how close it would approach the Carolinas and Southeast. Thus, track forecasting suffered a bit during this storm across the board. NHC track forecasting errors still managed to beat the 5-year average between hours 36 and 60. Google Deep Mind’s model did very well overall in terms of track once again. So did the UKMET, which was part of a group of solutions that took Imelda farther east, not right up against the U.S. East Coast.
Before Imelda became a defined tropical system, weather models had a very difficult time resolving whether or not it would track closer to the East Coast or farther out to sea, such as with this European ensemble track forecast from September 27th. (PolarWx.com/Tomer Burg)
Intensity forecasts were generally not as difficult, and the NHC outperformed most model guidance and the 5-year average here. Winds on Bermuda gusted as high as 86 mph. Imelda dumped over 20 inches of rain in parts of eastern Cuba while a tropical wave as well. Imelda was a good case study in being cautious about being too aggressive with forecasts before a storm even develops.
Tropical Storm Jerry (October 7-11)
Jerry formed from a tropical wave about 4 days after it exited Africa on October 3rd.
(NOAA NHC)
The wave associated with Jerry booked it west until it developed on the 7th, immediately becoming a tropical storm. Because of Jerry’s forward speed and some wind shear and dry air, it just never was able to get off the ground, despite some aggressive model forecasts at the time. Jerry peaked on the 8th with 65 mph maximum sustained winds and a surface pressure of only 1000 mb. Though Jerry missed the islands to the northeast, the storm still managed to kill one person in Guadeloupe and cause some significant flooding there and in Antigua. As much as 5 to 9 inches of rain fell in some of those islands with wind gusts as high as 67 mph in Guadeloupe. The NHC track forecast for Jerry was outstanding, while the intensity forecast was too strong, owing to the aggressive model guidance early on.
Subtropical Storm Karen (October 9-10)
Karen was a relatively unmemorable storm with the very noteworthy exception of being the farthest north a tropical storm or subtropical storm has formed on record.
(NOAA/NHC)
While many storms have tracked into that part of the ocean, none have had their origin occur that far to the north. As a subtropical entity, Karen only had maximum sustained winds of 45 mph, though it was stronger prior to undergoing tropical transition. Rather than regurgitate the technicalities involved in determining why Karen was a subtropical storm and how it came to be, I encourage you to check out the NHC’s post storm analysis on Karen here.
The worst of the season saved itself for last. 2025 ended with Hurricane Melissa, an absolute monster of a storm that shattered records. It tied (Allen 1980) for the strongest hurricane on record in the Atlantic Basin with 190 mph maximum sustained winds. Maximum sustained winds at landfall of 185 mph tied Dorian in 2019 and the Labor Day 1935 storm for strongest landfall on record in the Atlantic. The 892 mb minimum central pressure was only beaten out by Wilma in 2005 (882 mb) and Gilbert in 1988 (888 mb) for deepest tropical cyclone in the Atlantic. A dropsonde observation from a hurricane hunter mission into Melissa measured an instantaneous wind speed of 219 kts (252 mph), which is the highest wind speed ever measured globally by that type of equipment.
(NOAA/NHC)
Melissa was captured in the models well in advance of development as a potential threat, noted prior to October 13th. It was tough to take it super seriously initially, as modeling had been flagging that area for many days prior to Melissa being a thought. It was really around October 17th or so when things got pretty serious looking. And it only escalated from there.
Much ink has been spilled on Melissa over the last several months, as it relates to preparedness, communication, climate change, you name it. There’s no real sense in going off the deep end here with things, but I strongly encourage you to read the NHC’s report in full, as it contains a multitude of valuable information, imagery, and insight. I will just note that forecast-wise this was a tremendous success for the National Hurricane Center, which beat virtually every model at almost every lead time on both track and intensity. The exceptions were a few models that beat NHC on day 5 intensity errors and Google Deep Mind, which had a slightly better track forecast across the board. Google’s model was a revelation this past hurricane season, and there will be high expectations for its performance in 2026.
I’ll end it with some editorial comments. It’s a testament to Jamaica’s preparedness and resilience that the total death toll from this storm (officially) still lags 100 people. There was some commentary from folks in Jamaica on social media lambasting some meteorologists for overhyping the storm. And when you think about that, it’s almost laughable to think that you could possibly overhype one of the largest storms in modern history. But Jamaicans are not ill-prepared for hurricanes, and there was an element of patronization in some of the posts and comments ahead of Melissa that because Jamaica is a Caribbean nation it must not be ready to handle a storm. Quite frankly, while not as excessive as some others, I was guilty of expressing some serious concern of the impending doom variety rather than the healthy concern one should have when a category 5 storm is looming. None of this is to minimize that this was a legitimate catastrophe for the country. It caused over $8 billion in damage after all. But the air of condescension was evident. We could all learn some lessons from Jamaica for how to prepare and harden our communities for hurricanes.
2025 would have been a footnote in the history of Atlantic hurricanes for the most part had Melissa not occurred. It’s a sobering reminder that even in relatively quiet seasons, bad storms can happen. This is why we advocate preparing every hurricane season as if it is “the one.”
In brief: A quick Monday table setter to discuss severe weather today, flooding concerns that are coming up, and an early season heat wave on the East Coast. Eastern Pacific hurricane season is also officially underway.
Tropical concerns: None.
Eastern Pacific hurricane season began on Friday, and it looks quiet for the time being. Nothing on the Atlantic side to get us stirred up either. Look for part 3 of our 2025 Atlantic season in review on Wednesday.
Severe weather concerns: Moderate risk today Kansas/SE Nebraska
A moderate risk (level 4/5) is in place today for much of central and northeast Kansas, as well as southeast Nebraska. The risk today is for significant hail and strong tornadoes in this area.
Significant tornado risk exists today from near Wichita through southeast Nebraska. (NOAA SPC)
Storms should develop later this afternoon and advance east across Iowa and Missouri. Much of those areas are in enhanced (3/5) and slight (2/5) risk as well. So there is substantial risk for damaging thunderstorms today and tonight in these regions.
(NWS Topeka)
Storms will advance south and east tomorrow where a very broad slight risk (2/5) is in place from Upstate New York into Texas.
Flooding concerns: Central U.S., including Texas
Storms today will cause localized flash flooding from Kansas into Iowa and Minnesota but also a bullseye in Missouri. In these areas a “slight” risk (2/4) is in place for excessive rainfall and flooding, except a moderate risk (3/4) in Missouri.
A moderate risk of flooding south of Columbia, MO, with significant heavy rain falling and expected to continue tonight. (NWS WPC)
Flood watches are posted in this area.
As that system exits to the east, the setup over the Central U.S., from about Texas into the Ohio Valley and Southeast is going to favor continuous moisture coming in off the Pacific, Gulf of Mexico, and Caribbean Sea. This will lead to repeated rounds of rain and thunderstorms beginning tomorrow and continuing probably into next week in these areas. Rainfall totals will probably add up to 4 to 8 inches over a broad area in that 7 to 10 day period.
Forecast rainfall from NWS over the next 7 days. Additional rain will follow this, and locally higher amounts are possible, especially in southwest Louisiana and southeast Texas. (Pivotal Weather)
In localized spots, we could see some flash flooding concerns ramp up, including portions of Louisiana and the Houston area in Texas. We could also see some larger rivers begin to flood as well. We’ll be monitoring the rain chances for Houston closely at Space City Weather. But this looks like a major, prolonged and drought-busting rain event across the South and Ohio Valley. We will likely have more to come on this either here or at Space City Weather.
One other additional note:Corpus Christi has been in the news a lot lately because of the potentially devastating water shortage issues in that area. While this will not end those concerns at all, 1 to 4 inches of rain would help a lot in the near-term. Most models show this as a plausible outcome, though the heavier rains will be focused northeast of there. Hopefully with a developing El Niño, the rains will occur more frequently, though flooding concerns may emerge more frequently too.
Heat concerns: Northeast Corridor
Not necessarily out of the ordinary, but an early season heat wave is going to impact parts of the Northeast Corridor, especially between New York City and Richmond, Virginia the next couple days. Yesterday was a taste of things with 89 degrees recorded in New York, Philadelphia, and Washington. Today and tomorrow should be worse. Forecast highs are in the mid-90s for DC and Philly today and tomorrow and perhaps mid-90s into New York and Boston tomorrow.
Probability of “major” heat risk on Tuesday in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. (NOAA)
Tuesday should be the hotter of the two days overall, and the NWS heat risk map above shows pretty high probabilities of “major” risk (level 3/4) over a broad area. Heat should end on Wednesday evening with a cold front slamming through the region.
The first signs of Erin came a bit late in the game. We had been tracking a system in front of where Erin would develop that was highlighted in NHC outlooks as far in advance as August 2 or 3. As noted in our previous season in review post, there were a few cases of false alarms last season from the European model in particular, and that was one.
Google’s Deep Mind model did capture the potential for Erin well in advance. In fact, a week before genesis, Google Deep Mind’s model showed both risk of Erin, as well as the false alarm wave we had been monitoring ahead of Erin.
Google Deep Mind August 4, 2025 forecast with Erin’s actual track and the “false” system several models showed as well. (Google Weather Lab)
So no models were immune from false alarms, but the consensus on Erin gradually picked up as time went on. On August 5th, we noted how the European weekly model had a higher area of activity potential near the Caribbean as well.
European weekly tropical storm probabilities from August 4th, showing slightly elevated odds in the Caribbean with what would become Erin. (ECMWF)
By August 8th, speculation on future Erin had begun increasing, with some operational model guidance bringing Erin as far west as the Southeast U.S. By the 9th, we had Invest 96L from the false alarm wave ahead of Erin, with diminishing development odds. But odds on Erin were increasing. Models were in great agreement on potential for a system and a stronger one, and things just kind of progressed from there.
Erin was dubbed Invest 97L before formation, with the biggest forecast uncertainty on how much space it would have to turn northwest once near the Caribbean islands. By the morning of the 11th, confidence in that turn northward was increasing, and Erin was classified as a tropical storm that afternoon.
Erin’s forecast had really good agreement on track and many models projected a high-end category 3 or 4 hurricane by this time. (Tropical Tidbits)
Erin struggled out of the gate, with most of its thunderstorm activity abandoned by the morning of the 12th. Two days later, Erin had put itself together nicely with a much nicer satellite presentation and the beginnings of organization. 48 hours after it had 50 mph sustained winds, early on the 14th, it had jumped to 110 mph winds early on the 16th. It then peaked in intensity on the afternoon of the 16th as a 160 mph category 5 storm.
Erin’s satellite loop just before attaining category 5 intensity on the 16th of August. (Weathernerds.org)
As Erin moved northwest and then northward, it grew in size, eventually reaching the 92nd to 95th percentile of all hurricanes on record north of 20°N latitude.
Erin’s enormous size shown from the post-storm report. (NOAA NHC)
Despite the size, the strongest wind report at any land location came from Anegada in the British Virgin Islands, which had 61 mph sustained winds, gusting to 74 mph. Erin’s size did allow for some tropical storm force wind gusts to occur from New Jersey through North Carolina in addition to widespread coastal flooding. Impacts from Erin included severe rain and several drowning deaths in the Cabo Verde Islands, as well as flooding and landslides in the British Virgin Islands. Two structures in Buxton, NC sustained major damage, with around $3.1 million in damage from North Carolina and $25 million in total damage. Thirteen deaths (including the 7 noted above) can be attributed to Erin.
(NOAA/NHC)
For track forecasts, the HAFS-A model, Google Deep Mind model, and the HCCA consensus model seem to have been the best performers for Erin. For intensity, the backpat probably goes to the consensus models, the HMON, and Google’s Deep Mind. Read the full report here.
Tropical Storm Fernand (August 23-27)
Our sixth storm of the season, Fernand was a classic low-end fish storm. Maximum winds reached just about 60 mph, and there was no damage reported as it stayed out at sea. Still, Fernand was actually pretty well forecast, having probabilities of development added several days in advance.
(NOAA/NHC)
Google’s Deep Mind model again performed well here, as did some other model guidance. But aside from that, there was little of note to discuss with Fernand.
Hurricane Gabrielle (September 17-25)
We went several weeks again with little in the way of tropical activity in the Atlantic, through and beyond the peak date of September 10th, an extremely unusual feat. This was not a surprise in the moment, however. On August 23, we discussed the quiet that was expected in the Atlantic for the upcoming 2 to 3 weeks. In that gap we did have several waves emerge with some development odds — and they failed. One consistent theme of 2025’s hurricane season was a lot of false alarm noise.
(NOAA/NHC)
Things picked back up in the back half of September with Gabrielle. Some signs of this began to emerge late in the first week of September on the modeling. The first NHC notation on the system to become Gabrielle did occur nearly 7 days in advance with slowly, steadily increasing odds of development as time went on. Overall, Gabrielle was well predicted in advance, perhaps the best of 2025.
Gabrielle skipped the depression phase and jumped right into tropical storm status on the 17th. At the time, the NHC had classified it as a depression, but in the post-storm analysis, it was determined that Gabrielle didn’t have a firm center at that time and had actually reformed one to the north of where it had originally been analyzed which means it actually became a tropical storm around the afternoon of the 17th, not a depression the morning of. Every scientific field has their nuances to iron out, and this is one of them in meteorology.
Gabrielle was not exactly pretty looking early in its life cycle, as you can see from September 18th. (Tropical Tidbits)
Gabrielle pressed off to the northwest over the next few days, struggling, slowing, and turning north and northeast to the east of Bermuda. Gabrielle underwent a spurt of rapid intensification, strengthening from a 65 mph tropical storm early in the morning of the 21st to 90-95 mph on the morning of the 22nd to 140 mph on the morning of the 23rd.
Gabrielle near peak intensity in the open Atlantic. (Tropical Tidbits)
Gabrielle tracked off to the northeast and east over the next few days, arriving in the Azores around the 26th. One site (Faial) reported sustained winds of 48 mph, gusting to 96 mph as Gabrielle’s non-tropical circulation arrived. There was even a report of 115 mph winds in the mountains atop one of the islands there. Thankfully, damage was limited. Gabrielle continued as a remnant low into Portugal before dissipating.
Google’s Deep Mind model did great with Gabrielle’s track forecast, but virtually no other models beat the NHC’s track or intensity outlook within 120 hours.
