In brief: As high moisture and additional moisture from the Gulf and Eastern Pacific converge on the Southern U.S. this weekend, heavy rain chances will nudge up. We also check in on Pacific water temperatures and what they tell us about the next few weeks of hurricane season.
A return to more unsettled, wet weather is coming this weekend for the South. While no organized tropical system is expected to develop in the Gulf, a boost in atmospheric moisture across Texas, parts of the Deep South, and Southern Plains will come courtesy of Tropical Storm Cristina’s remnants from the Pacific.
(NOAA NHC)
While Cristina is moving slowly toward the coasts of El Salvador and Guatemala, it will begin to pick up a little speed and its remnant moisture will end up in the Bay of Campeche by Friday with additional moisture following behind it.
Moisture (in darker green) will move across Central America and into the Bay of Campeche and eventually southern Plains this weekend. (Cyclonicwx.com)
As all this moisture funnels north and combines with already elevated moisture levels in the Southern Plains and Deep South, we are likely to see areas of heavy rainfall emerge beginning Saturday and continuing into Monday or so. Modeling does not entirely agree on where the heaviest rain will occur with this setup, but it does appear that areas near the Gulf Coast from Texas into Mississippi (as AI modeling thinks), as well as eastern Oklahoma through Arkansas and Missouri will probably be at the highest risk of seeing 2 to 4 inches, with locally higher amounts.
NBM model rainfall forecast over the next week, with highest amounts in the Mississippi Valley and Plains. (WeatherFront)
In fact, parts of Oklahoma and Arkansas are already in a slight risk (level 2/4) for excessive rainfall on Saturday, slinking south on Sunday.
I think it’s notable to point out just how warm the water in the Pacific is, and this is outside the main El Niño regions we watch. Just in general, the Eastern Pacific is extremely warm right now, and that’s likely aiding in some of the locally heavier rains we’ve seen across the Southern U.S. over the last several weeks.
The East Pacific is absolutely red hot right now, which likely will aid in both tropical activity there, as well as increased moisture availability downstream into parts of the U.S. at times. (Cyclonicwx.com)
I would expect to see continued tropical activity on the Pacific side of Central America in the days and weeks ahead as well, even if the stronger background support that we’ve seen lately fades a bit. But with a “beginning to rage” El Niño in place, history suggests that’s one place the action will be pretty constant this season.
For folks on the Atlantic side of things, it continues to look fairly uneventful for a bit.
In brief: While Gulf development continues to be unlikely, we will probably see unsettled, wet weather try to make another run at the Gulf Coast, Southeast, and Texas next week. The Pacific remains congested with a lot of lower-end activity, as El Niño continues ramping up. Plus, we address reader questions on recently announced ocean research cuts.
Gulf update
The good news is that the odds of any Gulf development continue to remain pleasantly low over the next 7 to 10 days. A little bit of “noise” continues to show up in modeling by this coming weekend and early next week. Even the slightly busier ensemble model from the European ensemble is showing a fair bit of shear in the Gulf next week as well, so the chance of anything significant growing out of any storminess is extremely low.
Around 20 kts. of northerly shear should be present in the Gulf next week. (Tropical Tidbits)
Still, we’ll watch. I think more interestingly will be the precipitation we see emerge in this pattern, with another soaking possible from Texas into the Southeast either beginning this weekend or next week. Through this past Saturday, many parts of the Gulf Coast and Texas had seen 150 to 300 percent of normal rainfall over the previous month.
Rainfall from early May through early June has been rather prolific across the Deep South and Gulf Coast. (High Plains Regional Climate Center)
Another surge of moisture may lead to additional flooding concerns in these areas, so we’ll see how that evolves.
Eastern Pacific
Meanwhile, the Eastern Pacific remains busy, with Amanda dissipating out at sea, and Tropical Storm Boris near the Mexican coast.
Tropical Storm Boris will be out of the picture very quickly. (NOAA NHC)
I have to be honest: With a name like Boris, I expected more. Anyway, the second Pacific storm of the season will move ashore tonight as a tropical storm. Behind that is another disturbance passing off the coast of Nicaragua that will continue up the coast and eventually probably move inland. There is a chance that this one also becomes a tropical storm.
Boris and its disturbance friend off the coast of Mexico and Central America. (Weathernerds.org)
There’s just a lot of congestion along the Central America coast on the Pacific side, again, usually a calling card of an El Niño event.
Miscellany
We’ve been asked by a number of readers about a story making the rounds that first appeared in the New York Times about the Trump administration cutting and removing a deep ocean observation system around the globe. This project began 10 years ago and included over $350 million in instruments measuring a number of variables and data in the oceans to help us better understand what is happening on our planet. There’s no real good reason for these instruments to be removed. Or at least no one has shared any. The quote from the National Science Foundation’s spokesperson in the article reads, “aligns with N.S.F.’s wider strategy to have a nimbler approach to prioritizing support for evolving scientific priorities and emerging technologies as well as a deliberate approach to smart life cycle management within its portfolio of research infrastructure.”
In other words, they’re removing it because they don’t want to maintain it, which is kind of part of how science research works. Presumably the upkeep of this project (O&M cost in corporate parlance) as a legacy project had been accounted for in budgets, which opens the door up to any other number of reasons for removing it (like, perhaps because it also informs climate change research) that one can think of. You don’t just invest $350 million dollars in something that works and dismantle it to save a few bucks on maintenance. Or at least most business minded folks would not find that to be particularly efficient.
Anyway, the point is that this reduction is quite unnecessary. Yes, there are climate change research implications here. But there are also broader oceanographic, marine science, and yes, meteorological implications. Some stations help measure currents and provide added value to our broader understanding of coastal flooding, which is increasing all over the country. This continues a pattern that began last year by this administration and continues which is essentially death by a thousand paper cuts to the weather and climate fields (and science in general), implications be damned. We’re not being partisan here, we’re just being truthful.
In brief: We’ll be keeping a casual eye on the Gulf late next week or weekend as the potential does exist for some low-end development. However, it’s by no means close to a certainty at this time.
So far this season, including back into May, we’ve seen some hints in the models of potential Gulf development. Yes, the usual suspects have done their usual things. But also, there’s been at least some legitimacy to the overall pattern being unsettled and stormy. One need only look at a satellite image of the Gulf today to see that.
The Gulf has nothing organizing, but it is a bit unsettled. (WeatherFront)
Over the next few days, we’ll see things start to ease up a little in the Gulf before we get a little bit more intrigue later next week. Around Thursday or Friday, we begin to see the outlines of some cyclonic flow around the Yucatan. It appears that this may be the beginnings of a Central American Gyre (CAG) pattern. This is historically a common pathway to get development in the Gulf or near Mexico in June.
The upper air pattern begins to show vorticity pooling around the Yucatan. While the European model (shown here) is a little aggressive, other modeling indicates the potential start of a CAG type pattern later next week. (WeatherFront)
If this happens, you would start watching the Gulf around next weekend. Is there actual model support for a system? Not entirely. I mean, there is, but it’s not exactly stellar at this point. Google’s AI model is very, very lukewarm on any development. The European AIFS ensemble is also fairly lukewarm on things. The classic European ensemble is a little more excited about things (shown here), but even this is like 20% of ensemble members only. And the European ensemble does tend to have a somewhat overly aggressive genesis forecast with these things in my experience.
The European ensemble has about 20 percent of members developing something loosely in the Gulf next weekend-ish. (Weathernerds.org)
Also keep in mind, this time of year, it’s most likely that if something does develop, it would be sloppy, poorly organized, and quite moisture-laden. That means heavy rain would be more of a concern than any sort of wind or surge aspects. At this point, it’s a curiosity worth following into next week to see what happens but nothing anyone needs to get too worked up over.
Indeed, there is a *lot* of moisture on the board around next weekend, with Sunday the 14th looking like it has above normal moisture up and down the East Coast and into the Gulf and Texas. So at the least, we’re looking for rain chances.
Precipitable water anomalies are above normal all over the Eastern U.S. next weekend, indicating above normal moisture and rain chances. (Pivotal Weather)
More to come on all this.
Elsewhere, we’re in good shape with no concerns. Tropical Storm Amanda in the Pacific is no threat to land. A new disturbance is likely to form into a system currently off the coast of Zihuatanejo, Mexico. That could eventually make landfall, but as of now, models are mixed on exactly what that looks like.
(NOAA/NHC)
Another disturbance south of this one may drift into Central America, possibly briefly developing. We expect the East Pacific to be fairly active this season, so this may just be the beginning for that basin.
In brief: Well, here we are. The start of the six-month Atlantic hurricane season. We are cross-posting Eric’s post from Space City Weather (with some minor broad edits for this audience from Matt) yesterday that attempts to give you the information you need about what to expect and how to prepare, without raising your anxiety too much. A little preparation now will go a long way if the worst happens.
Hurricane season forecast
We do not put a whole lot of stock in seasonal hurricane forecasting. It can provide a general sense of what is likely to happen, but there is no precision in the details that matter. For example, what we really want to know is whether there will be a lot of active storms in the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean, or off the East Coast, not the central Atlantic Ocean. And since we remain a couple of months away from the ‘peak’ of hurricane season we just cannot know these details.
Seasonal forecasts for the Atlantic basin in 2026. Click to enlarge. (Barcelona Supercomputing Center and Colorado State University)
With that said, the general consensus from hurricane season forecasts is that we should see activity levels below normal this year across the Atlantic basin. For example, the average number of named storms is about 14 per season, and this year the most likely range of named storms is between 8 and 14, according to NOAA. The average number of hurricanes is 7, and the expected range is 3 to 6. So this is good news, because fewer storms overall mean fewer “shots on goal” when it comes to striking the coast.
The reason for all of this is that El Niño is has developed, and it will likely continue to strengthen during the key August and September months. This should help to suppress Atlantic storm activity by increasing wind shear. There are other reasons as well, but the takeaway message here is that instead of seeing a blockbuster season, we are likely to see a quieter one. But a quieter season for the entire Atlantic does not mean a quiet season for Texas or Long Island or Florida if one or two storms threaten the coast. So as ever, we will remain vigilant here at The Eyewall.
What you should do to prepare
The most important piece of advice we can give you is to have a plan for what to do if a storm threatens. If you have a plan, then you’ll sleep better and night, and be prepared to put it into action. And this is important, because when a hurricane legitimately does threaten the Houston region, people lose their minds. You don’t want to lose your mind. We have a page on The Eyewall’s website that links to dozens of local preparedness pages on the coast. Use these pages to help build your kit, develop your plan, and determine your evacuation protocols.
And that is critical. The key question you need to decide is under what circumstances you will evacuate. An important factor in all of this is how close you live to the coast. For example, in Houston, the Houston-Galveston Area Council has some excellent resources to help you prepare at this website. Among them is a “zip-zone” map that helps homeowners identify their vulnerability to different levels of storm surge. This is also how evacuations will be called, by zip codes.
Evacuation zones by area: purple (coastal), yellow (A), green (B), and orange (C). (HGAC)
Most other local jurisdictions (many linked above) also have maps such as this. There are other determinants for whether one should evacuate. You run from the water and hide from the wind. So, wind alone is not a consideration for most people. But those winds can frequently lead to extended power outages. If you have someone in your home with a medical condition that requires electricity for support, then you definitely will still want to consider evacuation if a hurricane threatens.
For those planning to stay during most storms, here is an example of a good disaster kit checklist. A lot of this is common sense: what supplies would you need to remain in your home for several days, without power, and without access to outside resources? Also please don’t forget about pets, whether you’re staying or evacuating. It’s also good idea to check on neighbors. One of the only silver linings of a hurricane, I have found, is that it tends to bring neighbors and neighborhoods together.
The climatology of hurricane season, showing the peak from mid-August through mid-October. (NOAA NHC)
A final word. Hurricane season is a long slog, not a sprint. Because of the nature of storms, you don’t need to be at Defcon 1 from June 1 through November 30. Yes, stronger storms can occur sometimes in July, but the main time to watch is August through October. It’s very easy (and understandable!) to get worked up throughout the course of the season, but you need to pace yourself as you would a marathon.
We do this because we love weather and we love ensuring people have good quality information. Seriously, over the last decade Space City Weather has become an important part of the Houston community’s fabric, and we take our responsibilities seriously. The Eyewall has been building a unique audience of its own. We’re here for the long haul and appreciate that our readers are so faithful to the sites.
Eric speaks at Space City Weather’s Fall Day in 2025.
And much we owe to you, the reader. To the extent we have grown, it has been through word of mouth. We have never advertised the sites. Rather, our growth has been entirely by word of mouth, with readers telling others about us, or sharing our activity on social media. We are grateful for that. Thank you!
Social media
As for social media, we do try to reach readers where they are. Here are a list of the places you can find us, and where you can find links to every update we do:
One final thing to note this year: We are trying to do more social media videos. If you follow us on IG or TikTok, you may have periodically seen our forecast videos. We try to do one or two a week at Space City Weather now more regularly to keep people informed. We don’t want to overwhelm you with content, but when something needs to be said, we’ll say it. So be sure and check us out there if you’re a video-first type person.
Thanks for reading, and we’ll have another update this week!
