It’s Monday, November 9th, and we’ve officially reached snow map season for folks in the Eastern U.S. A tip to all: Snow maps that are often shared on social media often use either pure 10:1 ratios or tend to overdo snow amounts, especially early in the season, and even more especially when the source is an account that likes to cheerlead for snow. One thing I’ve found is that a lot of people that are what I’d call snowhounds often talk up the risks at their maximum and don’t necessarily embrace reality. Rooting for certain weather is fine, but disappointment is worse, so caveat emptor.
The week ahead
Tropics: We had an Invest briefly last week in the Atlantic, but by and large, the basin is closed for business. In the Pacific, we have Tropical Storm Pena, but it is no threat to land, passing harmlessly south of Hawaii.
The setup: Through Wednesday or maybe Thursday this week, there really won’t be a whole heck of lot to discuss across the country. An upper low over Texas may produce some locally heavy rain today and tomorrow.
Heavy rains this weekend already dumped close to double digit rainfall in spots across South Texas (9.69″ reported from one gauge in Jim Wells County), especially just outside Corpus Christi. Rain will continue today
Elsewhere, we’ll see periods of rain and mountain snow in the Pacific Northwest, as a series of atmospheric river disturbances push through. But as we approach the late week, the focus will likely be on the East Coast, as another somewhat drawn-out coastal storm takes the stage.
Northeast snow? Most of the social media chatter I’ve seen this weekend has centered around the potential for snow in the Northeast from the storm. So, it begs the question, will it snow? Probably not.
November snow isn’t unheard of, nor is it especially uncommon. Albany and Scranton average a couple inches of snow in November, while New York City averages a half-inch. But temperatures look marginal at best, and the overall intensity of the low pressure system is not quite enough to drive down temperatures enough to produce snow.
In order to get snow in mid-November, you really need some decent cold, and right now it appears that’s not really there, and with a modest storm, you aren’t going to be pulling down a whole lot more.
Will some high terrain see some snow? Most likely. Will it be a lot? Probably not. Still, it’s a sign of the season.
In the news
- Water wars aren’t just for the West. There’s been a lot of tension building up in central Massachusetts regarding water allocation from the Quabbin Reservoir. (Commonwealth Beacon)
- Recent rains in the Southwest destroyed Alien Throne, a New Mexico geological landmark and Navajo waypoint. (The Guardian)
- El Niño will have an impact on global food supply, particularly in vulnerable countries. Niño events serve up fairly predictable impacts that may be enhanced this year due to the historic intensity of the event. (Yale Environment)
- From the “elections have consequences” file, a property tax cut approved by voters in Florida could strangle flood mitigation projects as frequent flooding worsens. This is a very big deal. (Miami Herald)
Election Day round-up
The biggest Election Day story from a weather perspective was the shift in power of Congress, which probably ensures that NOAA and the National Weather Service will be funded without much risk over the next couple years. Even in the current environment, we’ve just seen twice daily weather balloon launches resume at all the operational locations in the Lower 48. Alaska is still struggling. Good news for sure, as NWS hiring has accelerated in recent months. But the balance in power changing may mean some other positives for weather (and climate) research.
But as noted above, that story in Florida is huge. Simply put: States and municipalities cannot manage the burden of reducing flooding risk in an environment of diminishing tax dollars. In a place like Florida, this is especially difficult, as those areas have much higher vulnerability than many other locations across the country. And they have a growing population. Thus, the shift will probably require more money to come from the federal government, which has not exactly been keen to open the coffers for state and local governments in the last two years. So this is a significant, risky problem. Florida’s housing market may also have to deal with higher homeowner’s insurance rates as well. (Bloomberg $) Everyone wants to pay less in taxes, I think that much is obvious. But that comes at a cost that may actually cost people more in the long run.
Elsewhere, Election Day saw flooding priorities do well in both red and blue stats.
In Arkansas, flood control was part of Issue 4 that voters passed 56-44.
In Colorado, voters narrowly approved Proposition 137, a measure that prevented excess sales tax revenue from sporting goods sales to be refunded to taxpayers. Instead, it will now be reallocated to wildfire prevention and environmental protection. Despite the relatively closer vote, there was an interesting coalition of urban and rural interests supporting this proposition, which frees up $200 million to the state for these measures.
In a similar vein, Question 6 in Massachusetts was approved by voters which reallocated sales tax revenue from sporting goods and recreation to a state Nature for All Fund, which would be used for conservation, wetlands restoration, flood control, etc. It’s not a new tax, but rather creates a fund dedicated to specific costs. But despite the strong result, it was not a slam dunk.
Open space and flood control measures passed in Bergen County, NJ.
Dubuque County, IA passed a public measure that allows for an $18 million bond to be issued for conservation and flood mitigation projects. The measure passed 70-30.
Voters authorized Delaware County, PA to borrow up to $120 million for green initiatives to reduce flooding and purchase land for open space.
On the other side of the Delaware River, Camden County, NJ voters authorized a $400 million infrastructure plan to pursue stormwater and flood mitigation upgrades.
Finally, in Corpus Christi, an area that has been beleaguered by water issues, voters overwhelmingly approved a measure to end a drought surcharge and water curtailment exemption for industrial water users. This frees up several million dollars back to the City from industry that can be used for water projects. This result really was a microcosm of Tuesday’s pushback seen against corporate interests across the country.
The final word
I won’t argue whether any of the above election results are good or bad, not enough or too much, but they are at least suggestive that people are concerned about water and flooding and will vote in favor of specific issues related to them. But as in the case of Florida, “property taxes” is a four-letter word, and cuts there may have unintended consequences elsewhere.
People don’t like taxes, but they do seem to like when they know specifically what their tax dollars are going towards. Perhaps that’s a lesson for government everywhere. It also exemplifies America’s curious relationship with taxes and expectations of government that has been foundational in our country since the 1700s!
