East Coast blizzard about to get underway: Some last minute final forecast updates

In brief: The massive winter storm that will bear down on much of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic is about to kick off, so this post just runs through the expectations at the final hour.

Hopefully you all were able to watch Team USA take the gold this morning, and if you love cold and winter, the day should only get better for you in the Northeast and parts of the Mid-Atlantic. Here, we’ll walk you through the various expectations now that we’re in the final moments before the storm really begins.

Snow totals

This should not be a major storm in the DC Metro, though a few inches are possible.

Snowfall forecast across Virginia and Maryland and Delaware (NWS Baltimore-Washington/Sterling, VA)

Snow totals begin to ramp as you approach the northwest and east side of the Chesapeake Bay. Around a half-foot is expected in Baltimore with higher totals to the east, rapidly escalating to 12 to 18 inches from Salisbury, MD north across all of Delaware. A period of mixing near the coast may hold totals down there a bit, particularly around Ocean City, MD.

Snowfall for Delaware and South Jersey. (NWS Mount Holly)

Snow totals really crank once into New Jersey with 12 to 24 inches likely in all of South Jersey. The riskiest spots for lower totals may be in Cape May County up to about Atlantic City and for the Delaware Beaches where a period of sleet or rain may mix in with the snow for a time, cutting totals down a little. There will still be a *lot* of snow.

Snow totals for eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey. (NWS Mount Holly)

The gold medal winners for this snowstorm will probably be somewhere in Ocean or Monmouth Counties in New Jersey or just southwest of there, where we could, theoretically, see someone pick up nearly 25 inches of snow. We’ve seen some models put out 30-inch totals here, but I do think snow ratios may hinder that effort a bit. Likely someone between Salem County and Monmouth County will pick up 25 inches or more when all is said and done and be crowned champion. Elsewhere, 12 to 20 inches of snow is likely across most of the rest of New Jersey.

Snow totals in the NYC Metro area. (NWS New York City)

Around 20 inches of snow is expected for most of the New York City Metro with closer to 12 to 18 inches up into Connecticut and perhaps higher totals on Long Island. To make the top 10 list all-time for snowstorms in New York City, we’ll need to see at least 18.2 inches at Central Park. We need 14.1 inches for the top 20 list.

Total snowfall forecast for the Boston area and southern New England. (NWS Boston)

Snow totals will remain around 20 inches in southeast New England, with both Providence and Boston likely to come close to there. Lesser amounts will fall on Cape Cod and especially Nantucket. A secondary snowfall maximum for the event overall could occur between Providence and Boston.

A regional snapshot of total forecast snowfall. (Pivotal Weather)

That’s a lot of snow. This storm will be in a future edition of “Northeast Snowstorms” I am sure.

Powerful winds

The forecast wind gusts remain very impressive across the region, with coastal communities likely to see 50 to 70 mph wind gusts from New Jersey through Long Island and southeast New England.

Widespread 50 to 70 mph gusts on the coast and 40 to 50 mph gusts inland are likely with this storm through tomorrow. (Pivotal Weather)

Hence, blizzard warnings are spread over a wide area for most areas south and east of I-84.

Coastal flooding

Tonight’s high tide is expected to cause locally major coastal flooding on the Delaware coast and Jersey Shore up through Long Island. Atlantic City is now forecast to see major tidal flooding levels reached. An 8-foot high tide would be the highest there since Hurricane Sandy.

Major tidal flooding is expected to be tested at Atlantic City tonight. (NOAA)

Widespread moderate tidal flooding will occur outside of those pockets of major flooding. Thankfully, the storm is moving away by tomorrow, so that should limit the number of elevated high tides we see, with mainly just tonight’s being the most troubling for the region.

And so now we wait and see the totals pile in. Here’s hoping everyone stays safe through this event in the East. Feel free to share your reports with us too!

East Coast blizzard: Saturday evening update

In brief: Forecasts through the day today have tended to trend toward an even more impactful storm from Delmarva through southern New England tomorrow and Monday. Major snow, powerful winds, and major coastal flooding have all escalated a bit since this morning.

There have continued to be a few changes today to the forecast with respect to the East Coast blizzard that will begin bearing down in about 12 to 18 hours. As a radio DJ said in college ahead of the Presidents’ Day storm of 2003, “we’ve upped our totals, now up yours.”

The expanse of snow seems to have grown a bit. It’s certainly expanded a bit more north and west. You can see this by looking at snow totals across New York, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania.

Snow totals forecast by NWS through Monday evening. (Pivotal Weather)

It now appears that the one-foot line will extend to the north of Boston out through Poughkeepsie and south into Allentown and possibly into much of Delaware now. Blizzard Warnings have also been expanded through the day today, now covering a huge area from Boston through the length of Delmarva.

Blizzard warnings (red) extend from Boston through all of Delmarva. (Pivotal Weather)

Additionally, it seems that the wind forecasts have ratcheted up some since earlier today too. Here is one ensemble model, the HREF and its probability of wind gusts hitting 65 mph or higher through the event.

Probability of 65 mph wind gusts from the HREF model for the storm are above 50% in New Jersey and nearly certain for portions of Long Island and southeast New England. (NOAA GSL)

Those probabilities are quite high. These winds may locally cause some damage, particularly on the immediate coastline, with numerous power outages possible near the coast as well.

Another notch upward came via tidal flooding outlooks today. There is now likely to be some pockets of major coastal flooding from Delaware through Long Island. For example, the gauge at Lewes, DE is now expected to hit 8 feet with Sunday night’s high tide cycle. This would be the highest since the January 2016 blizzard.

Major coastal flooding is likely in Lewes, DE, with pockets of major flooding also possible up the Jersey Shore and onto Long Island (NOAA)

The NWS in New York City is highlighting the potential for significant coastal flooding for portions of southwest Long Island in particular.

Significant coastal flooding is possible in Nassau and southwest Suffolk Counties on Long Island. (NWS New York City)

By the way, a pro-user tip: Go to your local NWS forecast office and read the briefing packages they put up during events like this. These are primarily geared toward media and emergency manager partners, but they contain a metric ton of information for the local area, including some very useful details on forecast uncertainties. Some offices make this easy to find. Others do not. But with enough digging, you can find them.

One other note: This is likely to be fairly wet snow, which makes shoveling a little more stressful. Please exercise caution when clearing the sidewalks. Your risk of a heart attack increases substantially when dealing with this sort of snow. As we tell people here in Houston when it gets a little extra hotter than usual in summer: Don’t underestimate the impact these more extreme events can have on personal health risks.

I had seen some comparisons to the Blizzard of 1978 (the New England one, not the Midwest one) thrown around, which seems, kind of reasonable? No two storms are identical, and indeed this storm’s track will not be identical to that one, nor will the snow totals be identical. But just including that as an analog puts this storm in rarefied air.

NAM model forecast of the storm. (Pivotal Weather)

We are probably looking at a memorable, if not historic storm for the coast from Delmarva through southern New England. This one appears to be one for the books.

A Jersey, Long Island, and southern New England blizzard is in the offing Sunday and Monday

In brief: An extremely impactful winter storm is going to impact the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England beginning tomorrow afternoon and continuing through Monday. Blizzard conditions, powerful winds, heavy snow, and coastal flooding are all part of the mix.

I was having a text message exchange with a friend of mine from New Jersey, and we both agreed that more often than not, it’s the storms that seem to come out of nowhere a day or two before they hit that seem to overperform. And indeed, we’re shaping up to see quite a storm in the Mid Atlantic this weekend.

Potential snowfall accumulation looks impressive for New Jersey and the NYC Metro into parts of southern New England. (NWS Mount Holly)

In addition to the impressive snowfall accumulations that are forecast across New Jersey above, Blizzard Warnings are posted for coastal Delaware, New Jersey, New York, and Connecticut.

75th percentile NBM model forecast wind gusts show potential for 50-60 mph gusts on the coast between Delaware and Connecticut. (NWS GSL)

The onset of snow should be Sunday morning, although it may start as rain in many spots. As a South Jersey native, I can assure you that there’s always some uncertainty as to how long it takes for rain to change to snow there, but at present, the models think this will occur by early afternoon on Sunday. From that point, the storm system is going to rapidly deepen off the Jersey Shore and Delmarva, possibly bombing out, deepening at least 24 mb in 24 hours. Regardless, this will lead to the wind cranking out of the northeast. Wind gusts will top off probably in the 50 to 60 mph range, but some higher gusts cannot be ruled out. A good idea to charge your electronic devices on Sunday afternoon in case you lose power.

The storm itself will track toward New England or just off the coast of southeast New England by Monday afternoon.

Snowfall forecast as of Saturday morning for NYC, Long Island, and coastal Connecticut. (NWS New York City)

Heavy snow will expand into New England as well, with significant snow likely in the southern half of Connecticut, Long Island, and Rhode Island.

Snowfall forecast for southern New England as of Saturday morning. (NWS Boston)

In addition to the snow and blizzard conditions, we will also see some coastal flooding of at least the moderate variety in many areas. The Jersey and Delaware shores will be most susceptible, with a secondary concern into Long Island and southern New England.

Moderate coastal flooding is likely with high tides late Sunday and Monday from Delmarva into Long Island. (NWS Philadelphia)

Overall, this is expected to be a highly impactful storm from Delaware through New England.

Monday’s winter storm severity index outlook from the NWS is “extreme” from Atlantic City through parts of Cape Cod. (Pivotal Weather)

In terms of how quickly this sort of came about… There had been hints about this system for awhile now, but it really wasn’t until the last 36 hours that it really started to lock in. You can see the forecast precip from the European model for the last several runs and how it took some time to show up and lock in — and even then there were some issues with consistency!

European model forecasts of total precip in the 48 hours ending Monday afternoon since this past Tuesday. (Pivotal Weather)

You can see from an animation like this how little it takes to take a storm from being a nothingburger to being an extremely high impact. Most of this has to do with geography, right? The storm forecast may have only shifted by tens of or a couple hundred miles over a week, but it just so happens that several million people live near the coast. Snowstorm forecasting in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic is not for the weak!

Anyway, our hope to all in the storm to be safe.

Wild winds on the Plains today, along with fire risk as we look at how the Colorado River negotiations failed spectacularly

In brief: There’s some pretty high fire risk on the Plains today, as powerful winds impact the region, along with some mountain snow and snow near the Canadian border. Today, we also take a detailed look at how negotiations on a revised Colorado River compact failed spectacularly and what may come next.

A rollicking storm is going to push across the Western U.S. today, leading to a wide swath of gusty winds and high fire danger on parts of the Plains and in the West. High wind warnings and red flag warnings stretch from the Big Bend of Texas to the Bighorn Mountains in Montana.

NWS Watches and Warnings as of midday Tuesday. (Pivotal Weather)

Between precipitation in California and the interior West, the wind, and the fire risk, this one has it all. The wind gusts today are expected to be…..

Forecast maximum wind gusts today on the Plains. Some discontinuity exists between NWS forecast offices. (Pivotal Weather)

In addition to the winds, we are going to see some potential record warmth in the Central U.S., with much of Nebraska likely to push records well into the 70s. Even Abilene, Texas is expected to hit the mid-80s today, tying a daily record from the late 1800s.

High temperatures in Nebraska today will approach records. (Pivotal Weather)

Fire weather is defined as “extremely critical” in western Nebraska, northwest Kansas, and northeast Colorado today, a high-end day for this region.

Extremely critical fire risk in Nebraska, eastern Colorado, and western Kansas today. (NOAA SPC)

Overall, today is one of those days to be extra careful with flammable material risks.

Deadpool

There is big news regarding the Colorado River right now, and I will continue to insist this is the biggest story most folks outside the West are not hearing about. Valentine’s Day was the overtime deadline for the Upper and Lower Basin states to reach an agreement on modified water use, replacing the one that had been governing the Basin since 2007. The states had until November to reach an agreement, which was extended to this past weekend, and we’re still at a stalemate. To give you some perspective here, the states have been in negotiations for two years now, and we’re still not really getting anywhere.

Jonathan Thompson at The Land Desk lays out where we stand right now.

To call this a “crisis” is not hyperbole. Given the dreadfully low snowpack this winter in the Colorado Basin, with the upper basin running near record low levels and the timing of this arriving trainwreck, it’s very bad news. The Bureau of Reclamation believes Lake Powell is going to drop below the minimum power pool before the end of 2026, essentially dead pool. The problem right now is that the Upper Basin states (Colorado, Wyoming, Utah, New Mexico) don’t want to take mandatory cuts in their water use. They contest that they’ve done enough, having dealt with water cuts in dry years because reservoirs do not serve them, they serve the Lower Basin states. Also, water users are smaller in the Upper Basin, so more work and effort is required to divert water than is the case in the Lower Basin, where you have large projects like the Central Arizona Project for example that can take smaller allocations. Read Jonathan’s article for more on how this all could play out and why the Upper Basin may be forced to do something or face litigation.

He also has a great “101,” a primer on the Colorado River here.

I have curated a list of books on Western water issues on a Bookshop affiliate site if you want to learn more about the long-term issues at play here.

The West and Water

Here’s some additional news from the national, upper, and lower basin perspectives on the revised compact negotiations failing.

Associated Press

Colorado Sun

AZ Central

tuscon.com

St. George, UT News

Los Angeles Times

High Country News

KSJD News

A lot more to come on this.