Odd duck Arthur’s remnants still a major flooding threat for the Gulf Coast

In brief: PTC 1 became Arthur yesterday and offered some erratic behavior around Texas before dissipating. The moisture associated with Arthur remains a serious flooding threat for the Deep South and Gulf Coast.

Let’s start with the present and future and then walk back to yesterday.

First off, Arthur is a remnant low now, but the moisture funnel remains directed at the central Gulf Coast. In those areas, there are numerous flood watches and warnings.

Tropical rains are falling across the South with numerous flood warnings posted. Even a few severe storms are possible. (WeatherFront)

The Weather Prediction Center pulled the trigger on a rare high risk for flooding in the South. This includes Pensacola, Mobile, Biloxi, Gulfport, and Hattiesburg, MS.

A high risk for flash flooding is posted along the central Gulf Coast in Mississippi, Alabama, and the western Florida Panhandle. (NOAA)

The good news is that some of this has already fallen. The bad news is that additional rains will cause flooding, somewhat locally significant flooding problems. For instance, rain totals around New Orleans ranged from 1 to 3 inches in the city proper to over 7 inches at the airport in Kenner.

Rain totals since about 9 PM Wednesday have piled up in the New Orleans area. (NOAA)

Closer to the high risk itself, we’ve seen anywhere from 6 to 10 inches of rain in southern Mississippi away from the immediate coast. Hancock County has been especially hard hit by rainfall.

Rain totals have been quite high in southern Mississippi, particularly in Hancock County. (NOAA NSSL)

Through the rest of today, modeling varies on exactly how much rain to expect, but southern Alabama may be in the crosshairs for the heavier rain next, with areas near and north of Mobile at highest risk. Additional heavy rain is possible across interior southern Mississippi as well. Locally heavy rain may also occur north of Pensacola and into parts of Georgia.

Forecast additional rain totals from the RRFS model through midnight. (Pivotal Weather)

The risk of heavier rainfall continues into tomorrow, with the higher rain risks shifting eastward. Alabama remains under a moderate risk for flooding tomorrow, and that may be because any rain will cause flooding after today’s saturation.

Juneteenth will risk some flooding in southern Alabama. (NOAA WPC)

The total rainfall from this event will diminish as you go east, dropping back to 2 to 4 inches in Georgia and 1 to 2 inches in South Carolina.

Total additional rainfall through Sunday morning. (Pivotal Weather)

And with that, we’ll be able to close the book on Arthur.

Roundtable on Arthur

Let’s talk for a moment about Tropical Storm Arthur. We’ve seen some interesting cases of middling tropical storms on the Texas coast in the last 15 years or so. There was Tropical Storm Don in 2011 that absolutely imploded upon approach to the coast. Tropical Storm Bill was a big rainmaker that held its own as it tracked into Oklahoma with saturated soils and the “brown ocean effect” possibly helping aid the heavy rains up there. Tropical Storm Imelda held tropical storm intensity for less than 12 hours, yet caused $5 billion in damage from catastrophic flooding.

Arthur was odd in its own right. First off, maximum sustained winds peaked at about 45 mph. Arthur formed right on the coast of Texas, quickly made landfall, and then tried to reform again near the coast before coming up short. All along, the bulk of the rain and wind was well to the north and east of Arthur’s center.

A satellite loop from Wednesday showing Arthur’s evolution. (College of DuPage)

You can see in the satellite loop how Arthur quickly devolved into what we’d call a “naked swirl,” where the center of the storm is exposed without thunderstorms atop it, often a harbinger of a weakening system. By the time the center of the storm hit Galveston, you needed to travel to near Lafayette, LA to encounter any real rain from Arthur. Wind shear played a huge role in capping Arthur.

Northwesterly wind shear of 15 to 30 kts helped displace Arthur’s thunderstorms to the east, which only increased the farther away from the storm. (University of Wisconsin)

Despite this mess and the general slop that Arthur was, there’s no question the winds verified at tropical storm strength. Maximum wind gusts on Wednesday were anywhere from 40 to 65 mph on the Texas coast between Freeport and High Island. Offshore winds gusted over 80 mph on a (presumably) 100 foot oil platform. Even some 30 to 40 mph gusts occurred in Houston proper.

Maximum wind gusts from Wednesday on the Texas and southwest Louisiana coasts. (NOAA)

But this was not by any means a typical behavior for a tropical storm. Most of these winds were way out in front of the center. In fact, some of the stronger gusts occurred with clearing skies, so either the drier air punching in behind Arthur’s thunderstorms helped mix down these stronger winds that had been sitting mostly aloft or something else was at play.

Either way, this behaved a lot more like I would have expected to see in later fall (Hurricane Delta in 2020 comes to mind, which mixed down very strong winds in southeast Texas as the storm transitioned to an extratropical feature). I will be curious to see if in the postseason report, the NHC reclassifies Arthur as subtropical or notes what exactly happened here. Again, none of it was what you would have necessarily expected, so if you were thinking Arthur was an odd duck, you are correct.

No other major concerns right now. At this point we’ll plan to return Monday unless the situation changes. Enjoy the Juneteenth holiday weekend for those celebrating and honoring the day (An unsolicited plug for Conroe, TX native Annette Gordon-Reed’s “On Juneteenth,” which explains history and why this day really matters.)

Flooding rains in the South, with an unusually potent severe weather outbreak possible in the Midwest today

In brief: We continue to watch Potential Tropical Cyclone 1, which now seems unlikely to become Tropical Storm Arthur. It will, however, deliver areas of flash flooding to the Deep South and Gulf Coast. Additionally, we’re watching an abnormally strong severe weather outbreak risk today in the Midwest.

Potential Tropical Cyclone One is struggling to organize this morning for a couple reasons. As we noted yesterday, the center is displaced far west of the most thunderstorm activity, so the system just isn’t exactly healthy to begin with. Secondly, the center of PTC 1 is really just hugging the coast at this point. If the storm can’t get over water, then it can’t really have a chance to become a tropical storm.

When you look in a textbook, this is not the image you will see for “tropical storm.” (WeatherFront)

Whatever the case, this remains a rainstorm above all else, and it will likely drift inland even if it ends up over water after a short while.

(NOAA/NHC)

Heavy rains do continue to fall along the Texas coast, where we’ve seen as much as nearly 9 inches of rain so far today near Lake Jackson and Surfside Beach. The overall trend today will be for the rain in Texas to gradually subside by midday or so, tapering back to more scattered showers. For more details specific to the Houston area, please check Space City Weather.

Rain totals peaked south of Houston and southwest of Galveston overnight. (NOAA)

As the day goes on, the heavier rain will likely refocus toward coastal Louisiana. We should then see heavier rain begin to expand into interior portions of Mississippi and Alabama. The moderate risk (level 3 of 4) for heavy rainfall expanded to that area today. That continues over southern Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia tomorrow, as well as perhaps the Florida Panhandle.

A moderate risk for flash flooding exists in Acadiana into southern Mississippi. (NOAA)

In general, rain totals seem to have backed off a little since yesterday, or at least they’re more focused on Alabama than Mississippi and Louisiana now. Still, upwards of 3 to 6 inches of additional rain, with isolated higher amounts are likely from about Baton Rouge through Auburn. Flood watches have been extended all the way to the Atlanta area now as this heavy rain expands. Those may also be expanded into parts of South Carolina eventually as well, as the system actually tracks pretty much due east across the South. About 1 to 4 inches of rain is possible in portions of north Georgia and South Carolina, especially inland.

Rain forecast from NWS (Pivotal Weather)

Bottom line, the bullseye for flooding risks is in southern Mississippi and Alabama at this time, while more isolated flooding risks exist around those areas.

Once PTC 1 is out of the way, things should begin to calm down and heat up in the Deep South and Texas.

Potent Midwest severe weather outbreak

One other note while we have you this morning. There is also flash flooding risk today in the Chicago area, as well as in parts of northwestern Indiana. We could see as much as 2 to 4 inches of rain from storms today.

Heavy rain and flash flooding risk have led to a moderate risk (3/4) for Chicagoland and northwest Indiana. (NOAA)

Additionally, there is likely going to be a rather potent severe weather outbreak today across a chunk of the Midwest. A moderate risk (level 4 of 5) is in place for areas just south of Chicago, north of St. Louis, and northwest of Indianapolis. All modes of severe weather are possible today from large hail to large, long-tracked tornadoes to powerful straight-line winds.

A broad enhanced and moderate risk for severe storms is in place today between Toledo, OH and just east of KC. (NOAA)

Surrounding the moderate risk is a large enhanced risk (level 3 of 5) that includes those cities noted above and extends from just outside Kansas City through Toledo. Basically, folks in these areas should ensure maximum awareness today around any warnings that are issued, and it’s probably a good day to take those warnings a little extra seriously given the potential that exists. There are already some potent storms impacting places like Peoria, IL this morning with wind gusts of 60 to 80 mph reported northwest of there back into Iowa.

A depression or tropical storm is likely, but don’t be distracted, as this is primarily a major rainstorm for parts of the South

In brief: The National Hurricane Center has declared Potential Tropical Cyclone One, which will likely become a tropical depression or storm as it parallels the Texas coast later today and tomorrow. The primary impacts from this storm will be flooding rainfall from coastal Texas through Mississippi and Alabama, in many cases, very far from the coast.

Editor’s Note: The NHC will begin producing advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone One this morning. I wrote the below section before seeing that news. The map is updated below.

(NOAA NHC)

So we have two things to talk about today. Both are directly related. The potential for a tropical depression or storm in the northwest Gulf is increasing. However, the primary, if not only impacts to focus on (unless you are a mariner) with this event will be the rainfall. While this may indeed become a tropical storm or depression, again, this should be thought of as a significant rainstorm with flooding potential.

Let’s talk about the disturbance first because that is going to have a direct impact on exactly where the heaviest rain falls. As of this morning, Invest 90L is located in the Rio Grande Valley inland from Brownsville. A look at satellite certainly tells the story. This is absolutely loaded with moisture.

While Invest 90L is potent looking, almost all of its moisture is displaced east of the center. This has implications on where the most serious flooding risks may evolve in the coming days. (WeatherFront)

The one big takeaway I have with this? The moisture associated with 90L is heavily displaced east of the center. In other words, this will keep any organization slow, but it will also mean that the track of the disturbance is extremely important in determining who will see the greatest flooding potential.

So where will 90L track? Well, there’s pretty decent agreement this morning that the disturbance will scoot just offshore of South Texas later today and then curl back north northeast toward southwest Louisiana or the Texas Golden Triangle through Thursday.

Invest 90L is likely to move off the South Texas coast, briefly over the Gulf, then back inland near Port Arthur or Cameron Parish, Louisiana. (Weathernerds.org)

The residence time over the Gulf is going to be short, maybe 24 hours, and given the general disorganization it currently has, I don’t see how this becomes much more than an isolated 40 mph tropical storm. However, it is the moisture that’s the issue here.

With all this moisture funneling northeastward, you can bet there’s a significant heavy rain risk along and east of the track of PTC 1/Invest 90L.

Today’s rainfall will be heaviest in South Texas, at times in the Houston area, and along the immediate coast in Texas and Louisiana and just inland into central Louisiana as well later.

A moderate risk (level 3/4) for excessive rainfall is posted from Corpus Christi through southern Louisiana. (Pivotal Weather)

On Wednesday, that risk will hug the coast southeast of Houston, and then end up in southwest Louisiana.

Flooding risk on Wednesday is highest southeast of Houston and into southwest Louisiana. (Pivotal Weather)

And on Thursday, that risk shifts into Louisiana and Mississippi, maybe Alabama.

The highest rain risk on Thursday expands to the east for Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. (Pivotal Weather)

When all is said and done, we are probably looking at an average of 3 to 8 inches along the coast between Galveston and Vermilion Bay, extending inland between Lake Charles and Montgomery, AL. Isolated pockets within this belt are going to see upwards of 10 to 15 inches of rain potentially, and those will be the areas that are at highest risk for flooding. It would not be a shock to see a “high” risk get issued with the excessive rainfall products above before this ends.

Forecast rainfall over the next 4 days will likely be highest from coastal Texas, across Louisiana, southern Mississippi, and south & central Alabama. (WeatherFront)

Flood watches are posted from Texas through Mississippi, and those will probably expand into Alabama later.

(NWS Jackson, MS)

Bottom line: While this will be a tropical storm in all likelihood, the primary impacts and concerns will be from the rainfall, well away from the coast in many cases. Folks from Texas through Georgia should be monitoring local conditions and local information sources for the very latest.

Significant rain and flash flooding likely on the Gulf Coast this week

In brief: Significant heavy rain and flash flooding will impact much of the western half of the Gulf Coast through midweek. Areas between Corpus Christi and Lake Charles, as well as in southwest Mississippi are likely to see the heaviest rainfall, with max totals reaching or exceed 15 inches in isolated spots.

We continue to watch the situation on the Gulf Coast, and indeed, we’re beginning to see heavy rainfall chances come to fruition. Rain totals as high as 4 to 6 inches occurred in portions of Texas yesterday and overnight. And additional heavy rain is already occurring this morning.

A morning view of radar showing areas of heavy rain, numerous flash flood warnings (green boxes) and highlighted risk areas across Texas and Louisiana. (WeatherFront)

As the day goes on, this heavy rainfall is going to drop south and east some. It will begin to impact coastal areas of Texas, including the Corpus Christi, Houston, and Beaumont areas, as well as much of northern, central, and southwestern Louisiana. Additional heavy rain is likely to bubble up from the Gulf tonight, impacting the coast. Between where the decaying cold front stalls and the tropical moisture hits it will determine who is likely to see the highest rain totals once all is said and done. This would probably be along and southeast of US-59 in Texas and south of I-10 east of Houston into Louisiana.

HREF ensemble view of heavy rain risk through Tuesday morning. Lollipops of lavender and teal indicate the risk of upwards of 10 inches of rainfall will be present in some spots. Don’t focus on the specifics here but rather take this as a potential outcome. (WeatherFront)

Additional waves of heavy rain are likely tomorrow into Wednesday as well as the tropical disturbance we’ve been watching moves back out over water and back ashore once more. This will lead to a building flooding threat across this region over the next few days.

Click to enlarge excessive rainfall outlooks for Monday and Tuesday. (NOAA)

Coastal Texas, southwest Louisiana, and a portion of Mississippi are highlighted in a moderate risk (level 3 of 4) for excessive rainfall today and tomorrow. We could see a portion of this area get upgraded to a high risk if we begin seeing consistent rain in a location. This continues for Wednesday in the Lake Charles, Beaumont, and Houston areas, particularly for the morning hours.

What this means is that while not everyone is going to see significant flooding, there are likely to be pockets of considerable flash flooding across the area, particularly in urban and poor drainage locations. This means streets may become impassable at times, and if you have the ability to reschedule non-urgent travel, it’s recommended. This is the most significant rainfall setup in this area since 2024. As the WPC excessive rainfall discussion put it this morning, “any storms that develop in this environment (will have) an almost unnatural ability to produce heavy rain.

Total anticipated rainfall over the western Gulf Coast through late week. Some smaller areas are likely to see 15 inches or more when all is said and done. (Pivotal Weather)

Total rainfall when all is said and done will average 3 to 10 inches across this region. There may be more isolated locations that see as much as 15 inches or even more. An extremely potent rainfall event for the Gulf Coast.

With respect for tropical development, that matters primarily as any storm could try to consolidate heavy rainfall and focus it on a more specific area. It is not likely that any tropical development would extend beyond depression or low-end tropical storm status. You should be thinking of this as predominantly a heavy rainstorm and flash flooding event for the Gulf Coast.

Elsewhere, no other Atlantic concerns at this time.