In brief: Edouard made landfall as a moderate to strong tropical storm this afternoon, with wind gusts of 60 to 70 mph in the Port Arthur and Sabine Pass areas. Tonight, the focus shifts to heavy rain, and there is a localized significant flooding risk outside the Houston Metro area near Lake Livingston and perhaps parts of the Piney Woods. We explain.
Tropical Storm Edouard gets a tip of the cap this evening. While it did not quite go to the maximum intensity risk we discussed last evening (as a possibility, not a likelihood), it did strengthen into a respectable tropical storm, outdoing all but Bertha this season in terms of accumulated cyclone energy.
Edouard moving inland over Texas this evening around 4 PM CT. (WeatherFront)
Heavy rain is moving inland with Edouard. Totals have been as high as almost 3.5 inches just west of Port Arthur. Heavy rains continue.
A radar capture just after 4 PM CT on Tuesday. (WeatherFront)
As we go through tonight, the heaviest rain will fall near the track of Edouard inland. That is currently expected to work toward Lake Livingston in southeast Texas and perhaps toward the Huntsville area. Depending on the exact track, we could see a period of torrential rainfall after midnight near the center of Edouard or just to the southeast. I mentioned this earlier this morning as a possibility, but I am more concerned about this now after looking at the latest model data. This does *not* include the Houston metro. This should theoretically line up somewhere between Crockett, Huntsville, and Lake Livingston. This is the area I am most concerned about with regard to flash flooding tonight. Some of the higher resolution modeling we use shows potential for 5 to 10 inches or even more of rain in that area, particularly near Lake Livingston.
Rain totals tonight should be highest well north of Houston and east of I-45, near Lake Livingston, TX. (WeatherFront)
I would encourage any of our readers in that area around Lake Livingston to take special care to pay attention to things overnight as the rain evolves.
After that, while Edouard is done, there may continue to be sporadic bouts of locally heavy rain in interior Texas, particularly between I-35 and I-45 east of Waco tomorrow and perhaps west of Waco on Thursday. Keep an eye on flooding chances in localized areas there. We know all too well how Texas geography sometimes manages with decaying tropical systems.
In terms of wind, Edouard will rapidly weaken over the next few hours. Current wind gusts stand around 35 to 45 mph in most spots, but the airport in Nederland just recently gusted to 69 mph and Sabine Pass is still seeing some 50 to 60 mph gusts right on the water. Maximum wind gusts were as high as 71 mph at Sabine Pass, near 60 mph in Port Arthur, and just over 50 mph at Calcasieu Pass.
Maximum wind gusts reported so far from Edouard at official stations. Other reports will also trickle in over time. (NOAA)
We’ll continue to watch the progress of Edouard inland. The good news? There’s absolutely nothing else on the Atlantic side of the tropics to worry about over the next 7 to 10 days. We’ll take that at peak season.
In brief: Tropical Storm Edouard has about 8 to 12 hours left over water to intensify, and it will make an effort to do so. But it will run out of time later, bringing some gusty winds, surge, and heavy rain to parts of Louisiana and Texas. We discuss the situation in detail below.
The good news is that Edouard managed to make it through the night without intensifying much. In fact, maximum sustained winds this morning remain around 40 mph. The less good news is that “under the hood,” Edouard seems poised to try and make a go at intensifying a bit before it makes landfall in about 8 to 12 hours from this writing. Basically, Edouard has what it needs to try and intensify quickly up to landfall but whether its able to put all those things together is an open question and the difference between a sloppy 40 mph tropical storm making landfall and a compact 60 to 70 mph tropical storm making landfall.
Edouard is trying to wrap some stronger thunderstorms near the center, usually a sign the storm is trying to intensify. (WeatherFront)
The NHC has taken that latter scenario and applied it to Edouard’s forecast, bringing ashore a 65 mph tropical storm near Sabine Pass later today. The environment around Edouard, other than proximity to land is as optimal as you really need for intensification. I saw a post on social media yesterday from someone that said essentially, “I suspect we’re going to see a lot of ‘good thing this didn’t have 24 more hours over water’ posts tomorrow.” I forget who posted it, but it seems spot on. The biggest limiting factor to Edouard today will be that it has less than 12 more hours over water.
In terms of impacts, Edouard will make landfall sometime this afternoon, likely within 10 miles or so of Sabine Pass, TX. Recall yesterday that we said Edouard’s wind field was likely to be compact when it began intensifying, no more than 30 miles or so across. The current wind radius on Edouard is 25 miles from the center. This means that any wind impacts from Edouard will be very isolated to near where the center comes ashore. The best chance of wind gusts officially reaching tropical storm intensity will be between Cameron, LA and just west of Sabine Pass, perhaps to High Island.
HAFS-B model forecast of Edouard’s wind gusts near landfall, showing a tight, compact area of stronger tropical storm force wind gusts isolated to within 20 to 30 miles of the center. (WeatherFront)
Edouard is going to weaken quickly once inland, and by the time it reaches I-10, it will probably barely be able to hold together tropical storm force wind gusts.
Edouard’s winds should be mostly below tropical storm intensity when it gets to Liberty, Hardin, and Chambers Counties east of Houston. (WeatherFront)
Some residual gusts to tropical storm strength are possible east of Houston, across Liberty, northern Chambers, or Hardin Counties but that would be about it. It seems highly unlikely that Houston itself will see tropical storm conditions at any point.
Obviously, the rain will be another story. It continues to appear that any real flash flooding risk is east of Houston today and tonight. Locally heavy rain may occur across Liberty, Chambers, Hardin, and Jefferson Counties in Southeast Texas and in Calcasieu and Cameron Parishes in Louisiana.
Forecast rain from the REFS ensemble through midday Wednesday. Some areas will see less than shown here. (WeatherFront)
Rain totals are taken from the REFS ensemble system above, and they may be a bit aggressive east of Houston. But you get the idea: 3 to 6 inches of rain in a narrow corridor between Houston and Beaumont.
This is somewhat speculative on my part, but the remnant center of Edouard should be in the Brazos Valley tonight, near Huntsville or Madisonville. We sometimes see the centers of these things try to pop up more numerous thunderstorms than forecast during the diurnal peak in convection overnight (the propensity for tropical systems to peak their thunderstorm activity in the overnight hours). There could be a localized flooding threat somewhere up near Huntsville, Madisonville, or Centerville overnight, so just be aware of that. A flood watch is posted over a wide area of Texas today.
The good news is that a lot of places are rather dry right now, so the rain should be soaked up in a lot of cases. Obviously, you never want too much too fast. But the hope is that this will limit serious flooding.
Last point here, storm surge flooding should impact travel on Gulf Beach Highway in Louisiana through the day today, with up to 5 feet of surge possible near and east of where Edouard comes ashore.
Peak surge forecast potential from Edouard. (NOAA NHC)
In brief: We take a big picture look at what will push Tropical Depression 5 likely into Tropical Storm Edouard later tonight, as well as what will impact its intensity going into tomorrow. We talk about the wind potential on the coast and the flooding potential inland.
First, as of this evening, the storm center of Tropical Depression 5 is located south of Vermilion Bay, Louisiana. Maximum sustained winds are 35 mph, so we’re not yet at tropical storm intensity.
Tropical Depression 5 over the northwest Gulf on Monday evening just after 4 PM CT. (WeatherFront)
There has been hurricane hunter activity in the depression throughout the day, and the read is that the circulation is becoming better defined. They’ll be back out tonight, and given how things have gone today, I would not be the least bit shocked to see this upgraded to a named storm with the 10 PM CT advisory.
The track forecast for TD 5 is actually relatively straightforward and simple. It will continue west northwest to northwest and make landfall somewhere between High Island, TX and Cameron Parish, LA tomorrow afternoon or evening.
Other than a few outliers, the Google Deep Mind 1,000 member ensemble is in strong agreement on a landfall between High Island and Cameron, LA. (tcatlas.org)
TD 5 has about 24 hours over water to do whatever it will do.
So, what will it do? Normally, we’d look at a system like this and say, “Ok, weak to maybe moderate tropical storm, and that’s that.” TD 5 is slightly different. It’s small, it’s healthy “under the hood,” and it’s over very warm water in an extremely low shear environment. The key in that sentence is that it’s small. Small storms deserve love too. And in fact, sometimes these smaller storms can thrive in this part of the world, easier to wind up. And with only 24 hours over water, this storm will probably come ashore while intensifying, meaning it may punch a little above its weight class in terms of coastal impacts.
The latest NHC forecast brings TD 5 to 60 mph at landfall near Sabine Pass, TX. About 20 percent of Google 1,000 member ensemble members bring TD 5 above 60 mph at landfall, with about 5 to 10 percent doing so as a hurricane. Google’s operational WN2 model is not as excited with this, but I think this is an excellent use case for a 1,000 member ensemble. It gives you a more adequate dispersion of members in terms of intensity, and with small storms that can easily fluctuate like this one should, that’s helpful.
Let’s talk about the potential of a higher-end outcome. Let’s say TD 5 becomes a hurricane. Heck, even just a strong tropical storm. What sort of wind would we be looking at here? The answer is “a very compact, localized” wind field that would quickly drop off as it moved inland.
The wind field of stronger wind gusts from TD 5/Edouard should only be about 30 miles or so wide, and it will likely drop off significantly once inland. (WeatherFront)
In this scenario, you’d have strong tropical storm or hurricane-force gusts on the immediate coast between High Island, TX and about Johnson Bayou, LA. And the western flank of that may even be a little generous. By the time you got to Winnie, Nederland, Beaumont, Orange, Vinton, or Sulphur along I-10, you’d be talking about low-end tropical storm force wind gusts. At best. The storm would weaken rather fast once onshore, and this would likely substantially crush the wind intensity. In fact, if you run the HWRF, shown here, out 3 hours from here, you get max wind gusts in the 40s south of I-10 and 30s north of I-10.
Also, notable since the broader media will tie this into “Greater Houston,” this outcome would keep tropical storm force winds away from the entirety of the Houston Metro area, except maybe, maybe Galveston and Bolivar.
So, if you live on the coast or just inland between High Island and Johnson Bayou, I encourage you to prepare as if a strong tropical storm or Category 1 hurricane were coming.
In terms of rain, the good news is that the system looks generally progressive. The remnant center of it should be somewhere south of Dallas or east of Temple by Wednesday afternoon. But, the system is rather moisture-laden, so it will be able to dump some hefty rain near where the center tracks. In general, I would expect about 1 to 3 inches of rain east of I-45 with a band of 3 to 7 inch totals along the center track. That’s what should track through western Jefferson, eastern Chambers, Liberty, Hardin, Tyler, Polk, and San Jacinto Counties. Within that 3 to 7 inch corridor, there could be a bullseye closer to 10 inches in one or two spots.
The heaviest rain from TD 5 will likely fall east of the Houston Metro and west of Beaumont. (Pivotal Weather)
In the Houston Metro, we cover that at Space City Weather, but there is likely to be a very sharp gradient where parts of the area see nothing at all, up to an inch, then a quick escalation to 3, 4, 5 inches or more somewhere east of I-45. For Beaumont-Port Arthur, this looks like the heaviest rain will fall south and west of those cities, but it’s possible we see over 3 inches in spots. An inch or so is possible in Lake Charles, as well as around the periphery of where TD 5/Edouard “dies” in Texas, be it near Waco or Lufkin.
While this is probably not a severe flooding risk, there will be pockets of flash flooding possible later tomorrow through Wednesday morning, so just be advised of that in those areas.
We’ll update the situation again in the morning. Stay safe!
In brief: Invest 97L has an imposing satellite image but it has yet to make serious strides toward actually organizing yet. It remains distinctly a heavy rain and flash flooding concern, particularly east of Houston heading into midweek. But folks close to the coast east of Houston should continue to monitor Invest 97L for potential development before it comes ashore tomorrow.
Invest 97L
The good news is that scary looking satellite imagery is not correlated to tropical system intensity. On satellite, Invest 97L looks quite imposing this morning, but it’s notable that almost all the storminess is to the east of the presumed center.
Invest 97L has an imposing look on satellite this morning (WeatherFront)
Aside from that, we remain around 70 percent odds of potential development as of the overnight update from NHC. In terms of things that have and have not changed otherwise overnight: The track is mostly unchanged, generally toward the Upper Texas Coast with the center arriving onshore sometime tomorrow afternoon or evening. If there is a slight change in track, it’s that more tropical models are a little farther south and west with 97L, perhaps owing to the fact that it has not developed yet.
Tropical modeling brings the center a little closer to Bolivar than High Island or Port Arthur, partially due to the fact that it has not organized yet. (Tropical Tidbits)
Weaker systems will tend to go a little farther west before turning northward, and that could be what’s at play here. Either way, it’s good news that it has not organized yet. The more time it takes organizing also reduces the amount of time it has to intensify. So in general, we’re still looking at a decent chance at a tropical depression and a moderate chance at a tropical storm by landfall. People on the Texas coast, especially east of Houston should continue to monitor Invest 97L through the day.
What we are likely to see is more rain, however. Rain totals continue to slowly increase in East Texas. We would now expect about 1 to 3 inches, with isolated pockets of 3-5 inches of rain or more east of Houston and west of Beaumont. It’s not out of the question that someone sees close to 10 inches of rain from this before all is said and done, so obviously areas of flash flooding will be a concern, perhaps not in Houston proper, but east of there.
Total rainfall from 97L will likely exceed 5 inches in spots east of Houston and west of Beaumont. (WeatherFront)
So, bottom line? A tropical storm remains a distinct possibility out of Invest 97L. A depression is a good bet. The main threat will be heavy rain and flooding between Houston and Beaumont and inland from there. But folks east of Houston, between Bolivar and Port Arthur will want to keep an eye on 97L over the next 36 hours before landfall, in case it does try to organize faster.
