A Jersey, Long Island, and southern New England blizzard is in the offing Sunday and Monday

In brief: An extremely impactful winter storm is going to impact the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England beginning tomorrow afternoon and continuing through Monday. Blizzard conditions, powerful winds, heavy snow, and coastal flooding are all part of the mix.

I was having a text message exchange with a friend of mine from New Jersey, and we both agreed that more often than not, it’s the storms that seem to come out of nowhere a day or two before they hit that seem to overperform. And indeed, we’re shaping up to see quite a storm in the Mid Atlantic this weekend.

Potential snowfall accumulation looks impressive for New Jersey and the NYC Metro into parts of southern New England. (NWS Mount Holly)

In addition to the impressive snowfall accumulations that are forecast across New Jersey above, Blizzard Warnings are posted for coastal Delaware, New Jersey, New York, and Connecticut.

75th percentile NBM model forecast wind gusts show potential for 50-60 mph gusts on the coast between Delaware and Connecticut. (NWS GSL)

The onset of snow should be Sunday morning, although it may start as rain in many spots. As a South Jersey native, I can assure you that there’s always some uncertainty as to how long it takes for rain to change to snow there, but at present, the models think this will occur by early afternoon on Sunday. From that point, the storm system is going to rapidly deepen off the Jersey Shore and Delmarva, possibly bombing out, deepening at least 24 mb in 24 hours. Regardless, this will lead to the wind cranking out of the northeast. Wind gusts will top off probably in the 50 to 60 mph range, but some higher gusts cannot be ruled out. A good idea to charge your electronic devices on Sunday afternoon in case you lose power.

The storm itself will track toward New England or just off the coast of southeast New England by Monday afternoon.

Snowfall forecast as of Saturday morning for NYC, Long Island, and coastal Connecticut. (NWS New York City)

Heavy snow will expand into New England as well, with significant snow likely in the southern half of Connecticut, Long Island, and Rhode Island.

Snowfall forecast for southern New England as of Saturday morning. (NWS Boston)

In addition to the snow and blizzard conditions, we will also see some coastal flooding of at least the moderate variety in many areas. The Jersey and Delaware shores will be most susceptible, with a secondary concern into Long Island and southern New England.

Moderate coastal flooding is likely with high tides late Sunday and Monday from Delmarva into Long Island. (NWS Philadelphia)

Overall, this is expected to be a highly impactful storm from Delaware through New England.

Monday’s winter storm severity index outlook from the NWS is “extreme” from Atlantic City through parts of Cape Cod. (Pivotal Weather)

In terms of how quickly this sort of came about… There had been hints about this system for awhile now, but it really wasn’t until the last 36 hours that it really started to lock in. You can see the forecast precip from the European model for the last several runs and how it took some time to show up and lock in — and even then there were some issues with consistency!

European model forecasts of total precip in the 48 hours ending Monday afternoon since this past Tuesday. (Pivotal Weather)

You can see from an animation like this how little it takes to take a storm from being a nothingburger to being an extremely high impact. Most of this has to do with geography, right? The storm forecast may have only shifted by tens of or a couple hundred miles over a week, but it just so happens that several million people live near the coast. Snowstorm forecasting in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic is not for the weak!

Anyway, our hope to all in the storm to be safe.

Wild winds on the Plains today, along with fire risk as we look at how the Colorado River negotiations failed spectacularly

In brief: There’s some pretty high fire risk on the Plains today, as powerful winds impact the region, along with some mountain snow and snow near the Canadian border. Today, we also take a detailed look at how negotiations on a revised Colorado River compact failed spectacularly and what may come next.

A rollicking storm is going to push across the Western U.S. today, leading to a wide swath of gusty winds and high fire danger on parts of the Plains and in the West. High wind warnings and red flag warnings stretch from the Big Bend of Texas to the Bighorn Mountains in Montana.

NWS Watches and Warnings as of midday Tuesday. (Pivotal Weather)

Between precipitation in California and the interior West, the wind, and the fire risk, this one has it all. The wind gusts today are expected to be…..

Forecast maximum wind gusts today on the Plains. Some discontinuity exists between NWS forecast offices. (Pivotal Weather)

In addition to the winds, we are going to see some potential record warmth in the Central U.S., with much of Nebraska likely to push records well into the 70s. Even Abilene, Texas is expected to hit the mid-80s today, tying a daily record from the late 1800s.

High temperatures in Nebraska today will approach records. (Pivotal Weather)

Fire weather is defined as “extremely critical” in western Nebraska, northwest Kansas, and northeast Colorado today, a high-end day for this region.

Extremely critical fire risk in Nebraska, eastern Colorado, and western Kansas today. (NOAA SPC)

Overall, today is one of those days to be extra careful with flammable material risks.

Deadpool

There is big news regarding the Colorado River right now, and I will continue to insist this is the biggest story most folks outside the West are not hearing about. Valentine’s Day was the overtime deadline for the Upper and Lower Basin states to reach an agreement on modified water use, replacing the one that had been governing the Basin since 2007. The states had until November to reach an agreement, which was extended to this past weekend, and we’re still at a stalemate. To give you some perspective here, the states have been in negotiations for two years now, and we’re still not really getting anywhere.

Jonathan Thompson at The Land Desk lays out where we stand right now.

To call this a “crisis” is not hyperbole. Given the dreadfully low snowpack this winter in the Colorado Basin, with the upper basin running near record low levels and the timing of this arriving trainwreck, it’s very bad news. The Bureau of Reclamation believes Lake Powell is going to drop below the minimum power pool before the end of 2026, essentially dead pool. The problem right now is that the Upper Basin states (Colorado, Wyoming, Utah, New Mexico) don’t want to take mandatory cuts in their water use. They contest that they’ve done enough, having dealt with water cuts in dry years because reservoirs do not serve them, they serve the Lower Basin states. Also, water users are smaller in the Upper Basin, so more work and effort is required to divert water than is the case in the Lower Basin, where you have large projects like the Central Arizona Project for example that can take smaller allocations. Read Jonathan’s article for more on how this all could play out and why the Upper Basin may be forced to do something or face litigation.

He also has a great “101,” a primer on the Colorado River here.

I have curated a list of books on Western water issues on a Bookshop affiliate site if you want to learn more about the long-term issues at play here.

The West and Water

Here’s some additional news from the national, upper, and lower basin perspectives on the revised compact negotiations failing.

Associated Press

Colorado Sun

AZ Central

tuscon.com

St. George, UT News

Los Angeles Times

High Country News

KSJD News

A lot more to come on this.

It’s not just the West. The Southeast needs some rain too

In brief: Drought conditions have worsened in the Southeast and Southern Plains in recent weeks. A chance of rain this weekend, especially in the Southeast should help matters a little, but much like in the West, more is needed.

Yesterday we focused on the West with an uptick in moisture incoming. Today, let’s focus on the Southeast. This area has become quite beleaguered by drought in recent weeks. Compare the drought map below for the Southeast from December 30th of last year to last week. Slight the bar to the right to see December 30th and to the left to see last week.

Drought coverage comparison from December 30, 2025 and February 3, 2026. (US Drought Monitor)

While coverage of drought has not changed a whole lot, the intensity of drought has gotten worse. Much of the Florida Panhandle is in extreme drought, as is the area near and south of Tampa. Portions of Georgia are also in this designation. As in the West, some things will change in the coming days. A storm system and cold front will propagate eastward this weekend, likely resulting in some locally heavy rain and thunderstorms for the region. There is even a chance that we could get some strong to severe storms as well. Of course, we’re coming up to the peak of Mardi Gras season in the South, so it’s a good idea to keep tabs on things this weekend.

The rainfall forecast over the next 7 days in the Southeast would help if it comes to fruition. (Pivotal Weather)

The hope is that we can get a solid 1 to 2 inches of rain out of this system this weekend. I would surmise that the areas most likely to see the most benefit would be in northern Georgia and possibly southeast Alabama. We could also see locally heavy rains in the Florida Panhandle that could help mitigate drought conditions some.

(NWS New Orleans)

Either way, any rain helps.

Drought conditions are not much better as you travel west, with places like Arkansas even seeing some exceptional drought, the worst of the worst.

Portions of Texas, Oklahoma, and Arkansas are also seeing some pretty bad drought conditions. (US Drought Monitor)

Parts of the Big Bend region in Texas are also in that D4 designation. Much of south-central Texas is in extreme drought. But you can see elsewhere that conditions are somewhat blotchier, with pockets of extreme drought and limited drought in close proximity.

The La Niña situation this year has likely aided in keeping the South rather dry. With expectations of a shift to El Niño coming (more on that soon), we are hopefully going to see drought conditions ease up eventually here. But for now, rain is much appreciated.

Meanwhile, just to update the West, a series of storms continues to look likely from this weekend into much of next week. I count at least 3 individual systems on some of the operational model guidance right now, one just after Valentine’s Day, another on the 17th, and a third on the 19th. Whether all three come to fruition in full or not remains to be seen, but suffice to say, there remains a healthy chance at partially improved snowpack conditions in the West.

(NWS Reno)

We’ll keep tabs on things.

After a really dry start to 2026, the West will turn stormier over the next 10 days

In brief: After a long dry spell, there are signs of stormier weather in the West over the next 10 days. Mountain snow and low elevation rain is likely to add up some, helping to ease the deficit pain a bit but not enough to truly “salvage” winter at this point.

The dry West should moisten up a bit

It’s been a minute since we’ve shifted focus to the West. And for good reason: It’s been dead quiet.

Precipitation as a percentage of normal over the last 30 days has been meager at best in the entirety of the West, except for the coastal Olympic Peninsula. (High Plains Regional Climate Center)

This snow season has been wretched in the West too. While precipitation isn’t terribly far off normal for the season, the ratio of rain to snow events has been severe limiting any snowpack gains in the West. In fact, a look at the map of snow water equivalent by basin in the West paints a dire story right now, particularly as high stakes Colorado River water supply negotiations extend deeper into overtime.

Virtually every Western U.S. hydrologic basin is running below median for snow water equivalent at present, with most basins running 50% or less than median. (USDA)

That map is downright unsustainable in the current hydrologic environment of the West. So, help is needed, badly. Thankfully, some help is on the way. The first in what should be a series of storms arrives in California tonight. This system is less atmospheric river and more just a low pressure system that looks to stall out for a couple days. This is optimal, as it will bring mountain snow and lower elevation rain to much of the region, as well as at least some snow inland. Snow levels will be somewhat high-ish but you have to start somewhere.

(NWS Sacramento)

This should allow for 1-2 feet above 6,000 feet in the Sierra. Importantly, some of this snow will make into the interior mountains of Utah, Idaho, and Wyoming too, with perhaps 6 to 12 inches of snow at higher elevations.

(NWS Salt Lake City)

After this week’s system sort of washes out on Thursday, our attention will focus to a potential series of storms, more akin to a classic atmospheric river next week that should further add some snow and low elevation rain to the mix. Don’t sleep on the high winds outlined there either. We could be looking at some fire weather concerns in the Rockies or High Plains.

It looks busy in the West after this week. (NWS CPC)

The Climate Prediction Center’s 8-14 day hazards outlook has begun to paint the West more colorfully since Saturday. The heavy precipitation and heavy snow cards are being dealt for Feb 17-19 with the storm(s) next week. When all is said and done, we could be looking at 5 to 10 inches of liquid equivalent in California and 1 to 3 inches in portions of Nevada, Utah, Arizona, and western Colorado. Anything would help. This won’t be enough to salvage the winter (we need more), but it will hopefully help pull back the extremes a little. Here’s hoping.

Editor’s Note: We’re still doing this

I have a recurring Google News search on that I get sent to my email daily for “flash flooding,” “flood mitigation,” and “hurricane Gulf” (in Google Scholar). So, I see a lot of news and information on flooding each week. One story caught my eye yesterday, and it makes me extraordinarily frustrated.

(Kaiser Health News)

The Unicoi County Hospital in Tennessee flooded so badly during Helene that patients and staff had to evacuate to the roof and be rescued by helicopter. The decision is being made to rebuild the hospital right in the flood plain of North Indian Creek, a location that may be even worse than where it was originally built. There are safe ways to do this to ensure flood impacts are mitigated, but unfortunately, Ballad Health did not offer comment for this article. This doesn’t make me angry because rural health systems struggle enough as it is, and it’s more important to offer those residents access to healthcare than it is to worry about everything else. Theoretically. But it frustrates me that organizations like this are being put in this position at all. Surely, there have to be many other, less flood prone locations to build this facility. When we talk about resiliency and building smartly, which we should be doing in 2026, no matter your belief structure on climate change, this is exactly what we don’t want to see happening. Risk is never zero, of course. But some risks are very clearly worse than others, and this decision feels as if it feeds into that idea. It’s hard enough for rural health systems to survive on a good day, let alone with elevated risk. They need help with ways to build smarter.