As a mind-boggling heat wave begins to wrap up, we look at some initial numbers

In brief: An absolutely mind-boggling heat wave will finally reach its merciful conclusion this week. It has established thousands of new March temperature records, an event with virtually no modern precedent. Meanwhile, the heat has devastated an already fragile snowpack in the West. We talk about that and have an update on Texas weather…maybe some rain?

Record shattering heat continues

Beginning on roughly March 16th and continuing through yesterday, the U.S. has been absolutely gripped by a record shattering heat wave that has few to no peers in our historical record back to the late 1800s. The geographic scope, intensity, and duration of this event has been absolutely insane. That’s honestly the only word you can use to describe it, insane.

A map of March monthly high temperature records met or exceeded from March 21-25 and the statistics for the entire month through the 25th.

Since the beginning of March, over 1,500 new monthly high temperature records have been established, with over 500 additional monthly records tied (the 495 shown above stops on the 25th and new ones have been met or exceeded since then).

Let’s put this into perspective for a moment. In all of 2025, a hot year mind you, 1,981 monthly high temperature records were set or tied. In all of 2024, just under 2,300 monthly high temperature records were set. In June and July 2021, the last really comparable magnitude heat event to this one, a mere 1,402 monthly records were established.

Some other standout months, most of the warmest on record, that still came up short include October 2024 (673 monthly records), December 2021 (1,154 monthly records), February 2017 (882 monthly records), November 2016 (614 monthly records), June 2012 (912), March 2012 (921), September 2000 (1,095), May 2000 (740), November 1999 (1,182), April 1989 (812), June 1988 (1,001), December 1982 (942), September 1953 (707), December 1939 (1,004), September 1939 (740), August 1936 (658), July 1936 (1,421), July 1934 (880), May 1934 (1,285), June 1933 (671), February 1930 (742).

In other words, there is unlikely any modern comparison to the heat we have seen this month. Phoenix hit 105° for three consecutive days, the hottest on record there for March OR April. Albuquerque’s 91° on March 21 was the hottest for March or April. We could go on and on with this stuff. But it has truly been a remarkable meteorological event to witness. And perhaps a bit frightening in some respects.

Additional record heat is likely today and tomorrow before the pattern really does ease up. A flex of the ridge into the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic later this week will allow for a bunch of record warm minimum temperatures but probably very few record highs.

Monday’s forecast records or near-records, as well as a weekly tally of current forecast records or near-records at the top. (NOAA WPC)

Just a remarkably durable, gigantic weather event.

Snowpack woes

Meanwhile, an already bleak snowpack story has been inconceivably worse because of the heat wave.

The majority of the West is dealing with 50% or less of normal snowpack right now. (USDA)

The snowpack has been completely decimated. Even in the relatively better off north, the snowpack is pathetic right now. This is going to strain water supply and likely increase wildfire risk as we head toward summer.

Snowpack water equivalent at the Colorado River headwaters is well below the previous record low. (USDA)

Between the heat and lack of snowpack, we’re heading into a summer where the West is going to be in focus for a lot of serious risk. Again, while a lot of attention is focused on severe weather, hurricanes, and flooding across the nation, it may not be apparent to people just how bad this situation is becoming. The West is going to be a flashpoint for a lot of things in the coming months and years.

Texas outlook

As we often do on Mondays, I want to update our Texas readers on the outlook. First off, last week was a poor week in the rainfall department, as expected. Little to no rain fell across the state.

7-day rainfall estimates across the south-central U.S. (Pivotal Weather)

Drought coverage and intensity continues to expand, especially across South Texas. The good news is that the pattern should become more active in Texas this week, with a system Wednesday/Thursday and then perhaps an even stronger one over the weekend.

Rainfall forecast through later this weekend across Texas shows the potential for 1 to 3 inches, with isolated higher amounts in a few spots. (Pivotal Weather)

This rain will come with thunderstorm chances as well, including some severe risk. Much of interior Texas is in a marginal risk for severe storms on Wednesday, the level 1/5 risk.

Some severe weather is possible from Hill Country into the Metroplex on Wednesday, no foolin’. (NOAA SPC)

The severe risk may be a bit higher this weekend, though the SPC is not currently highlighting Texas. Some of the machine learning severe risk tools are beginning to highlight the weekend.

Colorado State’s machine learning severe probability forecast (left) highlights parts of West and North Texas for severe weather this weekend. Confidence is still too low for an SPC highlight yet, however. (Colorado State Univ)

So that’ll be worth monitoring. At the least, the hope is that some drought-relaxing rains will occur across the state. Temperatures won’t be quite as hot this week as they were last week. Houston never got above 86° last week. Last week, Dallas peaked at 87° after hitting 95° last Sunday. San Antonio and Austin both popped a 90 again this past week.

For the upcoming week, our hottest day looks to be Wednesday with highs around or above 90 in San Antonio and Austin and mid-80s in Houston and Dallas. Much cooler weather may arrive this weekend, with forecasts of 60s and 70s behind Saturday or Sunday’s storm system.

Forecast high temperatures across the largest cities of Texas this week.

Overall, a little bit more typical for spring, albeit still a bit hot.

Incredible, if not insane heat over a massive chunk of the country obliterates March record highs

In brief: An absolutely incredible spring heat wave has taken hold of the West, Central, and parts of the Mid-Atlantic this weekend shattering monthly records from coast to coast. More of it to come. In Texas? Records fell, multiple times in some cases in the Panhandle, West Texas, and near the Red River, with another surge of heat to come this week.

Record obliterating heat

I’m not going to dive too deep into this Western and Central U.S. heat wave from the last several days. I’m going to wait for some of the final numbers to be compiled and then do a bit of a recap. But I would be foolish to not at least touch on this. The reality is that this was an extraordinary event by any measure. Hundreds of records smashed daily.

(Daniel Swain on Twitter/X)

When it comes to events of this scope and magnitude (breaking April records in March, for example), there are very few analogs. In recent years, the only thing really comparable in North America was probably the insane Pacific heatwave of 2021. According to coolwx.com, March 19-22 had the greatest number of hot temperature records recorded of any days since 2010. Daniel’s map above was from Saturday, with monthly hot temperature records being set from SoCal through southern Minnesota. Even on Sunday at the same time, we had numerous monthly records ongoing too, over an even wider segment of the country.

Unofficial monthly record warm temperatures for March on Sunday extended from Maryland to Nevada. (Coolwx.com)

Monthly records don’t typically fall multiple times in a week over multiple locations from coast to coast. Clearly, this is an exceptionally rare event and one that is becoming more likely, more plausible, and more common in a warming climate. Dozens and dozens of additional hot temperature records will be set over the next 5 days.

For more of the day-to-day coverage on this heat event, check out Alan Gerard’s Balanced Weather.

Texas weekly outlook

As we’re trying to regularly do, here’s a look ahead at the weather across Texas for the upcoming week.

Let’s start with rain, or a lack of it.

Rain? No rain. (Pivotal Weather)

Let’s not expect much in the way of rain. We need it. Especially in South Texas. The situation in Corpus Christi is dire, and we’re planning to do something on that over at Space City Weather, hopefully by next week. But legitimately: We need rain.

The recent record heat has not helped.

Amarillo: 98° on Saturday establishes a new all-time record for March, breaking 96° from March 1907.

Lubbock: 98° on Saturday is a new March record as well, breaking the old record set the previous day, which tied the original record set on March 11, 1989 (96°).

Midland: 99° on Sunday was a new March record breaking the old record set on Saturday which broke the previous record of 97° set on March 31, 1946.

El Paso: 96° on Sunday broke the old March record of 95° set the previous day, which broke the prior March record of 94° set on Friday, which broke the original March record of 93° set on March 22, 2017. Another chance to do it comes Thursday.

You want more? Ok then.

Abilene: After coming up one degree short on Saturday, Abilene matched their all-time March heat record on Sunday with 98°, last set on March 21, 1916.

San Angelo: They broke their record for March on Saturday by hitting 100° and then matched the previous record of 98° on Sunday. That record has stood since St. Patrick’s Day 1908.

Wichita Falls: They fell 1 degree short of the record for March on Saturday when it hit 99°, so the March 27, 1971 record of 100° still stands. They have another opportunity on Thursday.

So for West Texas, the Panhandle, and parts of North Texas this will be the March heat event of record now. And we may not be done yet. Another surge of heat arrives this week, with daily records already forecast or close to forecast across much of Texas on Thursday.

Record or near-record highs forecast on Texas for Thursday. (NOAA WPC)

Basically, it’s a week of heat ahead.

For those keeping track of the 90 degree derby in the Texas Triangle region

Dallas: 1
Austin (Downtown): 3
San Antonio: 4
Houston (IAH): 0

High pressure will build in through the week, allowing for this heat to percolate. Friday may see a chance at 90+ or record highs in Houston ahead of a cool front that will allow for slightly more comfortable weather across the Central U.S. late this week and weekend.

Unfortunately, however, we may see the heat surge again after the weekend and heading into next week. We may see a wetter pattern return to Texas after that. Fingers crossed.

Wild weather across the country with hazards from snow to severe weather to wind to record temperatures

In brief: A massive storm is impacting most of the eastern half of the country today and tomorrow with hazards ranging from possibly record snow to fire weather to strong winds and severe weather. Meanwhile, the West is likely to see arguably the strongest early season heat wave ever recorded there begin this week.

There is a whole bevvy of issues across the country this weekend. Let’s walk through them.

Severe weather Sunday

The Ohio Valley and mid-Mississippi Valley are under an enhanced risk (level 3 of 5) today for severe storms, as are portions of Georgia, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle.

An enhanced risk (3/5) covers a wide swath of the Mississippi Valley and Lower Ohio Valley. (NWS SPC)

While there may be an early element of tornado risk with the storms today, the primary concern will be damaging winds as a line of potent storms cruises south and east later today and tonight. Wind gusts of 50 to 70 mph are likely in the stronger storms, along with an isolated tornado. This should be a QLCS type system, which tend to be notorious for damaging winds in spots and brief “spin up” tornadoes that can cause narrow corridors of damage.

Severe weather Monday

That line of storms will move east of the Appalachians on Monday. What should occur is development of showers and thunderstorms over the Carolinas in the later morning and early afternoon, racing south to north. An additional squall line (another QLCS) will push into the Mid-Atlantic in the afternoon hours. You’ll see severe weather with this, including the potential for damaging winds with the squall line and a somewhat higher-end tornado risk, particularly in the Carolinas and Virginia. As such, a moderate risk (level 4/5) has been issued for the Mid-Atlantic.

Damaging winds and isolated tornadoes will be a serious concern Monday from the Carolinas into southern Pennsylvania. (NOAA SPC)

We don’t see too many moderate risks in this region. In fact, the last day 2 moderate risk from Richmond north appears to have been in 2013. South of there, it appears to be 2021.

Blizzard conditions

On the northern edge of this storm, a massive snowstorm is going to bury parts of Wisconsin and the U.P. of Michigan.

Upwards of 1 to 3 feet of snow is possible in the Northwoods of Wisconsin and the U.P. of Michigan. (NWS)

The snowstorm has backed off a good bit for parts of western Wisconsin and Minnesota based on recent model runs. But it has definitely escalated for the U.P. Surprisingly, the 2-day snowfall record in Marquette, Michigan is 31.9 inches in March 1997, almost 29 years to the day. We could blow past that with this storm.

Northern Michigan will also see significant snow. (NWS Gaylord)

The 2-day snow total in Wausau, Wisconsin may also be threatened (22.1 inches in March 1959). Notice how these big snow records seem to align in March. Some of winter’s biggest storms happen in March. The northern Lower Peninsula of Michigan is going to be right on the edge of more nuisance (6 to 12 inch) snows and significant (12 to 24+ inch) snows, including Traverse City through Sault Ste. Marie.

Blizzard warnings are hoisted from the U.P. back west into southern Minnesota, almost all of Iowa, and parts of the Dakotas and Nebraska. While snow totals will be lower to the west, the winds may be stronger. Wind is the main component of Blizzard Warnings, as the criteria are falling or blowing snow, wind gusts, and low visibility. Snow intensity and amounts are not considered.

Wind and fire weather on the Plains

On the backside of this storm, high wind warnings and red flag warnings are in effect now.

Widespread 60-65 mph wind gusts are expected from the Texas Panhandle into Nebraska. (Pivotal Weather)

Fire weather looks especially concerning in the Texas Panhandle and New Mexico. There is a critical fire weather risk there, and the Texas A&M Forest Service forecast fire weather risk for today is extreme in those areas.

Critical fire weather risk is posted for New Mexico and most of West Texas. (NOAA SPC)
Fire danger as forecast for Sunday by the Texas A&M Forest Service. (TAMU Forest Service)

With this area in drought, the combination of dry fuels, low humidity, and strong winds makes today and parts of Monday important fire weather days in this region.

Cold weather behind the storm

While the cold behind this storm won’t be too extreme, a few records are at risk in the Midwest, Mid-South, and Southeast tomorrow and Tuesday mornings. In addition, frost and freeze advisories and warnings are posted across the Southeast and Mid-South as the growing season has started in some of these areas.

Tuesday morning lows will be quite cold in the Southeast, with frost likely in spots and a freeze likely as you creep northward. (Pivotal Weather)

Cold will be short-lived as we see a big warm up into next weekend. Temps will stay fairly cool in the Northeast and Lakes.

Western heat wave

As noted last week, a pretty epic, if not historic heat wave is going to clamp down on the Western U.S. this week. Hundreds of record highs will fall this week in the West, including numerous monthly records and numerous “earliest first” records for 90s and 100s.

Phoenix, AZ temperature forecast from NWS this week, including the earliest 105+ on record. (Weather Bell)

In San Francisco, the monthly record temperature is 85 degrees. That will be threatened on more than one day.

San Franciso forecast temperature forecast from NWS for this week. (Weather Bell)

Even Salt Lake City is likely to break past their March temperature record of 80 degrees.

Salt Lake City NWS temperature forecast for this week. (Weather Bell)

This is going to be one of the most intense, if not the most intense early season heat waves in the West on record.

The weather pattern should calm down some later this week and next weekend.

A late Texas weather round-up, winter’s return to the North, and a blistering heat wave on deck in the West

In brief: Today we recap severe weather in Texas earlier this week, as well as take a look ahead to some temperature whiplash. Plus, a major winter storm will target the north, while the West prepares some of the hottest March weather ever recorded there.

Sorry for the lack of posting Sunday through Wednesday. In a word, I was wiped out and consumed by other priorities. So! You get a Thursday afternoon post instead.

Texas!

Quick recap of Texas severe

Just a quick recap of what we saw in Texas, with storms on Tuesday and Wednesday. Tuesday and Tuesday night saw some significant severe storms across central and western Texas. One particularly potent storm tracked from about Del Rio, as they often do, east-northeast to Comfort. Hail as large as 4.5 inches (grapefruit size) in diameter was reported near Leakey and Camp Wood in Real County on the way.

(Jordan Elder on X/Twitter)

That storm also briefly produced a tornado east of Del Rio in open land. Another storm produced a brief tornado southeast of Abilene.

(Chad Casey on X/Twitter)

That storm later also produced some pretty big hail in Stephens County, with baseball size hail reported. All in all, it was a fairly active day with some locally significant impacts in parts of Texas.

I will point you to Alan Gerard for a recap of the storm with the *insane* hail in Illinois that tracked into Indiana as well on Tuesday. Numerous other hail reports occurred on Tuesday across the Central U.S. as well.

Looking forward in Texas

It looks quiet now through about Saturday in Texas with nice, albeit hot weather. In fact, the state will see multiple record highs threatened on Saturday the 14th, including a forecast high of 90° in Abilene (record is 91°), 90° in Midland (record is 89°), and 86° in El Paso (record is 85°). Those 90s will spread into Central Texas on Sunday the 15th.

Sunday’s forecast highs with numerous 90s in Texas. (Pivotal Weather)

A cold front will push into the state on Sunday afternoon and evening, and that could produce some thunderstorms, mainly east of I-35 and south of I-20. These storms could have gusty winds, but severe risks look minor at this time and confined mainly to the Piney Woods. But that is going to usher in quite a change in weather on Monday, with highs only in the 60s in Houston and maybe the 50s in Dallas.

Monday’s forecast highs with numerous 50s in Texas. (Pivotal Weather)

A late winter treat (or trick, I guess if you like hot weather early!) Rest assured, by later next week it should turn hotter again.

Winter’s return to the North

For Minneapolis, the largest 2-day snow total this winter was 7.6 inches back in February. If the European model is to be believed, as an example, they could blow that away this weekend. A major winter storm is going to cut across the North. While the details are still being sorted out, this storm will likely bring a stripe of very heavy snow to somewhere from eastern South Dakota, southern Minnesota, northern Wisconsin, northern Michigan, and central or northern Ontario and Quebec.

(NWS Twin Cities)

This storm is likely to produce blizzard conditions somewhere in that corridor as well, with very strong winds in addition to the heavy snow. Some severe weather is possible south of the wintry part of the storm from Iowa, across the Midwest and Ohio Valley and into parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic.

The day 3 to 7 hazards map identifies areas of severe risk, strong wind risk, fire risk, heavy snow risk, heavy rain risk, and heat risk. A lot! (NOAA)

Bottom line: Winter is not over, and this could be one of the biggest storms of the season.

Western Heat

You’ll note in the map above that California and Arizona are highlighted in the hazardous heat section for St. Patrick’s Day through the 19th. That is part of a burgeoning heat wave that is going to deliver the potential for dozens of record highs and record warm lows, damagingly early snowpack melt, and a longer-term increase in wildfire risk to the West.

The probability of record high March 500 mb heights in the West is nearly 100% next week, which is an astounding ensemble forecast this far in advance. (Polarwx.com)

From Tuesday through Friday next week, it’s conceivable that we set multiple records for highest March 500 mb heights on record in the West. While this area has experienced a lot of extreme heat events in the 2000s, this one is particularly impressive given the confidence and geographic coverage it will have. The current forecast in Phoenix brings highs to 102° by Wednesday. The earliest 102° day in Phoenix occurred on April 6, 1989. This would beat it by at least 2 weeks.

Phoenix’s forecast looks more like late May than mid-March. (Weather Bell)

There’s a legitimate chance that Phoenix hits 105° at some point next week. The 97° forecast in Las Vegas next Wednesday would also be the earliest there on record, beating the 1989 event as well.

This is going to begin a quick melt of a very unstable and modest snowpack. Every water basin in the West is already below normal on snowpack, or snow water equivalent.

The entire West has below normal snowpack, and the upcoming record March heatwave will decimate the already fragile snowpack. (USDA)

The word “decimate” is appropriate here, and given the extremely contentious and risky Colorado River negotiations and situation, the strain is only going to worsen and stakes only increase higher.