Dispelling nor’easter misconceptions and diving into actual expected impacts for this weekend’s storm

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In brief: A deep dive into blowing up inaccuracies floating around about the weekend nor’easter and more importantly, what’s actually expected (heavy rain, tidal flooding, and some stronger winds in spots). Plus a quick “around the horn” in the Atlantic and Pacific.

Apologies for the late post today. Work and life intervened today, so we’re running behind on everything. Even the dishes. Apologies.

Alright, let’s start walking through things

Northeast Nor’easter

Look, there’s a *lot* of nonsense out there about this storm. I haven’t kept up with it all, but I’ve seen a couple things I need to dispel for you.

First, the ones showing hurricane-force winds over a pretty broad area? One run of the Euro and looking at the winds 2,500 to 5,000 feet off the ground. That….isn’t where people live. It’s nonsense and fear-mongering. I hoped to find a decent wind map to show, and I may have grabbed one, but it’s far from perfect.

Second, full stop, this isn’t the ghost of Sandy. It’s not. Just trust me on that one. Let’s end that immediately. Not every storm that left hooks toward the coast is “similar to Sandy.”

Third, while this is a significant event in and of itself, it’s probably not a historic one and probably ends up being an afterthought in what should be a relatively busy El Niño fall and winter ahead. The oddest thing about this is the time of year it’s occurring. That’s about all.

With that out of the way, let’s talk some details. Models continue to have strong dispersion issues with this storm. In other words, we’re within 4 to 5 days of the event, and quite honestly, we have a pretty wide spread of potential intensities and tracks to try to rationalize.

European AI ensemble track of the weekend nor’easter, showing tracks west into New Jersey, northwest into Long Island, and north into the Cape. (Weathernerds.org)

So let’s be up front about this: There’s a lot of uncertainty on specifics here, and it’s not in a hurry to improve.

In the short-term, the main issues are coastal flooding.

Tidal flooding forecast for Atlantic City through Saturday, showing several rounds of minor to moderate tidal flooding. (NOAA)
Tidal flooding forecast for Lynnhaven Inlet near Norfolk, VA showing several rounds of major tidal flooding through Thursday night. (NOAA)

This is not being caused by the nor’easter (which has not formed yet) but rather by persistent, strong onshore winds. Tidal flooding is occurring from North Carolina through Long Island, mainly minor flooding into the western fringe of Long Island Sound.

The forecast players as they’re expected to look on Saturday morning at 20,000 feet up. (Tropical Tidbits)

The nor’easter itself will develop tomorrow and Friday east of North Carolina. From there, the steering pattern essentially keeps the nor’easter off the East Coast with no defined exit route open. High pressure sits east of Bermuda, trying to nudge the storm north, while extremely strong high pressure also sits over Lake Superior, trying to push the storm back south. The result?

This is why there is so much track spread among the various ensembles and models. We know what’s going to happen at a high level, but we don’t know what the minutiae will be that directs the specific track.

The storm will probably peak on Saturday or Sunday morning in intensity before migrating northeast and out to sea as the exit door cracks open.

So what will people actually see from this storm? Again, the specifics at specific points will depend on the intensity and track exactly how it is, but in general:

Tidal flooding risk with north and northeast winds. Unlike this week which features east to west moving winds hitting the shore more perpendicularly and piling water up in the back bays of Jersey and Delaware, the weekend storm winds will shift some to come out of the northeast and north. Here’s a Euro example from the 12z run today:

Winds this Saturday morning as the nor’easter is nearing its peak intensity. (WeatherFront)

This should lead to some legitimate tidal flooding on the back bays (this time on the island side more than the mainland side), as well as on the North Shore of Long Island and in parts of Massachusetts and the Cape.

That’s concern number one.

Concern number two is probably heavy rain and flash flooding. Atmospheric moisture levels look to be in the 90th percentile or better in the region, especially into southeast New England. Models are indicating a pretty healthy probability of 3 inches or more of rain in southeast New England.

Probability of 3 inches or more of rainfall through Tuesday. (Polarwx.com)

The AIFS Ensemble has about a 70 percent chance of 3 inches or more near Boston and east of Providence. That risk drops off pretty dramatically as you go west, so that the NYC Metro has only about a 20 percent chance of that right now. This is one way the final storm track will have some impact. A storm that tracks a little farther south and west will drag some of those higher rain totals in eastern New England south and west some, closer to New York.

The current official rainfall forecast looks like this.

Rain totals as forecast by the NWS WPC through Monday night. (Pivotal Weather)

You can see the bullseye in southeast New England. If I have some concerns about this storm in terms of more significant problems than usual, it’s urban flooding risk between Providence, Boston, and southeast Massachusetts. We’ll see how this looks as we get a bit closer.

How about wind? Maximum forecast wind gusts from the European model (one solution of several possible ones but one that has a rather impactful track) are on the order of 40 to 50 mph on the coast between Cape Cod and New Jersey, with some potential for a few 60 mph gusts as well. This forecast is specifically for Saturday morning.

Forecast wind gusts from the European model on Saturday morning. (Pivotal Weather)

For now, I would say this safely keeps the beefier wind gusts of 70 mph offshore.

So where do we stand currently in terms of expectations and confidence?

Timing: Worst impacts Saturday-Sunday. High confidence.
Tidal flooding: Locally significant with NE winds from MA to NJ back bays (island side). High confidence it will happen. Low confidence in specifics.
Rainfall: Mostly manageable heavy rain, but watching the area between Boston, Providence, and southeast Mass for locally significant flash flooding. Moderate confidence it will happen, very low confidence in specifics.
Wind: Typical nor’easter wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph with locally higher values. High confidence it will happen. Low to moderate confidence that 60+ gusts won’t be a big issue.

Stay tuned.

Just to tie a bow on earlier discussions: Whether it becomes subtropical or not is immaterial to impacts. It’s still a bit of an edge case, but I could see this getting a second look in the offseason.

Around the horn

Let’s quickly update some other stories.

Atlantic

Fay is just about done for. The NHC has upped the odds of another storm in far, far eastern Atlantic to 60 percent. As of now, that seems reasonable.

(NOAA/NHC)

The rest of the basin looks calm. Our Houston readers will want to check out Space City Weather tomorrow for more tropics notes for the western Gulf.

East Pacific

Hurricane Polo is an absolutely monster of a storm off the Mexico coast, and it looks poised to try to reintensify some tonight, as these bigger storms often undergo fluctuations in intensity.

Hurricane Polo on Wednesday evening. (WeatherFront)

While this will stay offshore, continued fringe impacts are likely on the coast of Mexico.

Hawaii. Again.

Here we go again. Tropical Storm Nolo is south of the islands, and, well, Hawaii may be staring down another legitimate hurricane threat in the coming days, with heavy rainfall at the least.

(NOAA/NHC)

These rainfall totals are, again, astounding for the windward side of the Big Island, with up to 35 inches possible in some areas. Remember they were hit very hard earlier this season. A hurricane watch is already in effect for the Big Island, and the impacts from this one, depending on exactly how the steering pattern evolves in the next couple days could bring it close to the western Hawaiian Islands as well.

El Niño summers tend to be active nearer to Hawaii than usual, as well as in the Eastern Pacific, and this one is making the most of it. Polo. Nolo. YOLO.

Coastal storm to bring meaningful impacts to parts of New England and the Mid-Atlantic this weekend

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In brief: A nor’easter is going to deliver gusty winds, heavy rain, and tidal flooding to portions of New England, Long Island, and the Mid-Atlantic heading into the weekend. We discuss the expected impacts and details and whether or not it becomes tropical. We also look at the Pacific, where a cat 5 is likely to emerge in Hurricane Polo off the Mexico coast.

Nor’easter update

We continue to watch for the development of a rather impactful nor’easter this weekend off the coast of New England. Ahead of the storm, persistent onshore flow will lead to tidal flooding on parts of the coast from Delmarva through New Jersey. Moderate coastal flooding is a possibility in New Jersey as early as tomorrow.

Areas of moderate tidal flooding are possible, if not likely in New Jersey and Delaware tomorrow or Thursday. (NOAA)

We don’t currently expect “major” tidal flooding.

The nor’easter itself will begin to develop tomorrow and Thursday. The evolution will be slow and complex, but it will become more of a classic coastal storm by this weekend. Below is the European model’s depiction of the system, not to say it’s developing and tracking it correctly, though it’s in line with other model guidance.

The evolution of this weekend’s nor’easter as depicted by the European model. It peaks on Saturday or Sunday before slowly weakening. (WeatherFront)

In terms of wind, anywhere you see the purple color up there, winds could sustain in the 20 to 40 mph range with gusts perhaps north of 50 mph, especially closer to the southeast extremes of the coast, such as The Hamptons or Montauk, Nantucket, or Block Island, RI. Of course, changes in track would mean changes in where those impacts go exactly. But this looks like a full blown nor’easter like you’d see in mid-winter, except without the snow, of course. More on the potential evolution to a tropical or subtropical system below.

Track will be important in determining exactly how much rain falls. With a multi-day coastal storm sitting close to the coast, there will be potential for excess rainfall. High moisture levels will pump into southeast New England. It’s still early to get too specific on rainfall totals, but the European AI ensemble as an example has 40-50 percent probabilities of at least 3 inches near Boston and in southeast Massachusetts.

Euro AI Model probability of 3 inches in 48 hours. (Polarwx.com)

This is over 48 hours, and the window for rain may be closer to 72 hours. Bottom line: Heavy rain is a good possibility in parts of New England and Long Island, although the specific details are yet to be ironed out.

Does it become tropical?

While Google’s Deep Mind and other ensemble models are picking up on the storm, there is still an open question as to whether or not it becomes tropical in nature. It will have time, and it will have warm water temperatures over which it sits for several days.

Sea-surface temperatures are plenty above normal, especially in the northwest Atlantic. (Cyclonicwx.com)

All that may still not be enough, but there is still a “warm core” element of this that shows up in model guidance today, and that indicates that there is some “there” there.

Some warm core elements are showing up with respect to the weekend storm so that it could begin to briefly acquire tropical or subtropical characteristics before it weakens. (Florida State University)

But the bottom line is tropical or not, the impacts should be similar regardless. The bigger issue right now is homing in on the track details of whatever it is to fine tune rain probabilities, wind gust potential, and severity of coastal flooding.

Rest of the Atlantic (and Pacific)

Fay is on its way out now, with maximum winds down to 40 mph.

Fay has lost all deep thunderstorm activity. (WeatherFront)

All in all, Fay goes to the clubhouse in the lead for intensity but 2nd place behind Bertha for ACE.

The NHC has also indicated an area off the coast of Africa with 30 percent development odds over the next week. This will emerge from a wave coming off Africa tomorrow. Steering currents are likely to quickly turn this northwest and due north, not far off the African coast, a bit of an odd track.

The next wave up will emerge off Africa in the next day or two. (WeatherFront)

No threat to North America, but probably another open ocean lower-end storm. We’ll see.

Last week we did mention that there was some “noise” showing up in the Gulf and western Atlantic in the 10 to 14 day period Well, that’s now the 3 to 7 day period and nothing has rolled forward. All my X’s live in the Pacific, where both Polo and Odalys are swirling. Polo will be an interesting storm in that it will likely explode into a high-end major hurricane, possibly a category 5 storm later today.

Hurricane Polo is likely to turn into a monster off the Mexico coast later today. (WeatherFront)

While the storm should stay off the coast of Mexico, it will pass close enough to deliver fringe impacts to a portion of the coastline. After meandering around the Pacific for a bit, Polo’s remnant moisture may move its way into the Desert Southwest or Texas next week. Those areas are being hit rather hard by late season monsoon moisture right now, so this situation will need to be monitored to see if that potential is realistic or not over the next 5 to 7 days.

A little busier this week, as Fay fizzles and the action picks up off New England and New Jersey

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In brief: As Tropical Storm Fay fades away, attention will turn to New England and the Mid-Atlantic, where a potentially moderate to strong nor’easter will impact that region. Interestingly, there is also real potential that this nor’easter could transition to a tropical storm as well. We explain below.

Thanks for letting me take a couple days off here in the middle of peak season, both our readers and the tropics themselves. But things look busier now in interesting places. Let’s step through things.

Tropical Storm Fay

First, we have Tropical Storm Fay wandering out in the middle of the open Atlantic, no threat to land. It had been a threat to the 2026 hurricane-free record we’ve been carrying.

Tropical Storm Fay has peaked and will dissipate later this week. (WeatherFront)

Maximum sustained winds did hit 70 mph (estimated) last night as Fay briefly made a run for hurricane intensity. But that risk is now over with, and we’re going to see Fay fade away as the week moves forward.

Fay will end up as the strongest storm of the 2026 season so far, and it will also add about 1.5 or so unit of ACE to our weak total.

Northeast risk: Nor’easter or hybrid nor’easter/tropical storm?

There’s been a little bit of buzz up here in my new digs in Connecticut about a potential nor’easter this week. This one has a lot of interesting elements to it, and I think it also has the risk to eventually acquire a name. Let’s discuss.

First, the most imminent concern with this system is tidal flooding. Places like New Jersey and Delaware may be most vulnerable to this aspect of things through the week. Onshore flow begins in earnest on Tuesday and continues through Friday.

Onshore winds will eventually become more north-northeasterly as we get to the weekend, but steady onshore flow for multiple high tide cycles presents a tidal flooding risk for the Mid-Atlantic and parts of Long Island or New England. (WeatherFront)

The wind will eventually become more northeasterly in nature as our nor’easter forms this weekend. But in the interim, multiple high tide cycles on building onshore flow will gradually stack up water, especially in the back bays of the Jersey Shore.

High tide forecasts push tidal flooding risks into the moderate range by Wednesday for the Great Egg Harbor Bay, among other locations. (NOAA)

We’ll probably see the typical nuisance tidal flooding, along with some higher tide cycles by Wednesday or Thursday as things stack up.

Then there’s the nor’easter itself. What’s interesting about this is that it forms and then also moves rather slowly, meandering south of Long Island and New England. What’s also interesting about this is that the longer it stays over the water south of Long Island, the more likely it is to transition from a typical cold core nor’easter to a warmer core tropical system or hybrid system. For people on the ground, this definition doesn’t matter a whole lot, as the outcome will be the same either way. For those of us that study weather, this represents a fascinating case of potential tropical transition. We often discuss extratropical transition, where a hurricane or tropical storm devolves into a frontal-driven low pressure. In this case, the frontal-driven low may evolve into a tropical cyclone, potentially taking on enough characteristics to be classified as subtropical. How do we know this? Well, slow moving lows over the ocean always carry that risk in summer and early fall. But also, the models themselves are telling us this.

A cyclone phase diagram for the weekend storm showing a transition from non-tropical to possibly tropical. (Florida State University)

If you look at the map above and the “phase diagram” below, you can see we start the storm off the Southeast coast as probably not tropical. By the time the storm gets to the letter “Z” on the map, the phase diagram has evolved to show the system as almost a symmetric warm-core storm, or what would more than likely be considered at least subtropical, if not purely tropical.

Google’s WeatherNext, as well as multiple other models suggest risk of some tropical transition with the storm south of New England this weekend. (Weathernerds.org)

So what does this mean?

In terms of impacts, this means more than likely a raw weekend for southern New England, Long Island, and New Jersey. Windy, cool, and rainy. At this point, the most concerning impacts are from the potential for tidal flooding and/or beach erosion from rough surf. But I would continue to watch the wind risk, as well as the heavy rain risk closely too. As of right now, the potential exists for 1 to 3 inches of rainfall in parts of the region, along with 30 to 50 mph wind gusts on the coast. But it’s important to recognize that there is a high degree of uncertainty in the final storm track, as you can see above, with some models closer to land, and others farther away. This will determine if the risk for wind or heavy rain increases in the days ahead. Folks in southern New England, Long Island, and New Jersey should monitor the forecast this week for changes, especially those that live near the coast, sound, or bays.

More to come.

Maybe we can get something going in the Atlantic? Plus, an anatomy of another southern Connecticut flooding event

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In brief: Today we update on a disturbance east of Bermuda that is flailing a bit and has a low probability of development. We also take a deep dive into the flooding that hammered southwestern Connecticut on Sunday.

Tropical Atlantic

We begin today in the Atlantic, where the odds of open Atlantic tropical development have waxed and waned over the last few days, and in very 2025-26 fashion, they seem to be struggling mightily.

An early AM satellite view of the Atlantic disturbance east of Bermuda. (WeatherFront)

On satellite, you can see that this thing is not even challenging invest status right now, let alone heading for development. Over the next few days, the disturbance behind these clouds will drift west, inching toward Bermuda. Any development risk is very low and would almost certainly be very slow initially. Wind shear in the area is fairly low, but this disturbance is fairly broad in size and just does not seem really able to congeal around a tighter center in the modeling.

Google Deep Mind’s WeatherNext3 model has about a 20 percent or so chance of development. (Google)

Google’s WeatherNext model still does hold out some chance it can do something, with about 20 percent or so of the members of WeatherNext 3 showing development. The larger 1,000 member ensemble shows about 40 percent odds of development. It’s somewhat notable that the ensemble members that do develop this system in many cases make it a stronger one. So, I think the points here are: This is unlikely to impact land, the chances of development remain in the 20 to 40 percent range, and if it can develop, it has potential to become a stronger storm. We’ll keep watching for educational purposes.

What else?

You had to ask? The answer is nothing. Right now. I will say we are beginning to see some “noise” in various ensemble members that suggest something could be afoot near the Gulf or in the deep Atlantic at some point over the next 10 to 14 days, but there is nothing specific we can zero in on right now. So at this point, it’s the meteorological equivalent of uncorroborated information. We will keep watching and get more specific if and when the need arises.

Anatomy of another Connecticut flooding event

This summer was the wettest on record at the primary observing site in southwest Connecticut, in Bridgeport. By about an inch, 2026’s 21.24″ in Bridgeport bested 1972’s 20.23″ for wettest summer since 1948. We just added the 13th wettest day on record this past weekend, when Bridgeport recorded 4.25 inches of rain over the course of about 3 to 4 hours. Some parts of Fairfield County and east of New Haven were hit even harder.

Radar estimated rainfall from Sunday in southwestern Connecticut. (WeatherFront)

Stamford reported 7.47″ of rain, while just east near Darien, we had a 7.40″ report, and a 7.19″ report east of Norwalk in Westport, which was particularly hard hit. This is now the second significant flash flooding event since I moved here this summer. So you can say I am to blame, I suppose. But in all seriousness, this is not a laughing matter, and the Northeast has been a magnet for increasingly intense rainfall in recent years. 2026 is now the record holder in Bridgeport for number of hours that saw 1 inch of rain in an hour or more, at 5 of them. Folks on the Gulf Coast will read this and say “That’s cute,” but here in the Northeast, once you hit 1 inch per hour, that’s when serious problems can begin. Two of those hours came during the major January winter storm, another occurred on July 21st, a fourth on August 23rd, and the fifth on Sunday.

The two big ones on Sunday and back in July came as something of a surprise, in the sense that “Wow, I didn’t realize it rain that hard for that long.” But also in the sense that forecasts weren’t necessarily calling for 7 inches of rain. Even as the rain began Sunday morning, the NWS in New York City had called for locally higher amounts of 3 to 5 inches of rain in southern Connecticut. And a flood watch was indeed in place and had been for many hours prior to the onset of rain. The area was under a slight risk (level 2/4) for excessive rainfall.

(NWS New York City)

We have been under several flood watches this summer and 10 so far this year (compared to 5 in 2025 and 11 in 2024), so there may be an element of fatigue settling in, or the fact that it was on a weekend when folks were a little less tuned in may have also contributed to the surprising element. But short of underdoing the peak forecast totals a little, this was a pretty decent forecast. And there was good reason to believe that 5″+ totals were a distinct possibility in this area ahead of time.

Why is that? First, let’s look at the HREF/REFS details. The HREF probability matched mean product, which I have spoken highly of, showed 5 to 7 inches of rain possible over Long Island Sound on Saturday morning’s 12z run.

HREF Probability matched mean total rainfall from Saturday morning’s forecast. (NOAA SPC)

The max total of any one forecast in the ensemble did exceed 7 inches. Corroborating this was the REFS model which showed a healthy probability of 5 inches or more of rainfall over the same area highlighted above. So at the least, looking at this, some other data, and subsequent runs, it was evident that someone could see 5 inches or more of rainfall and they’d probably be adjacent to Long Island Sound.

You could have also looked at the NWS’s experimental urban rain rate dashboard (URRD) and seen at least some hints of a somewhat significant flooding event possible. While no point forecasts are available for southwest Connecticut, the Port Jefferson, Long Island location would have been helpful and instructive in this case.

A screenshot of the URRD from Saturday morning for Sunday’s rain event. (NOAA)

What can we pick out on here? Well, if we look at 6 hour rain totals, we can see that the ensemble probability of seeing a 6 hour average rainfall recurrence interval (ARI) of 10 years was significant. And even looking at the chart on the bottom left, there were several members of the plume in the 10, 25, or 50+ year ARI. The 10 year corresponds to about 3.4 to 4 inches over 6 hours. 50 to 100 year recurrence intervals would be between 5 and 6 inches. What ultimately fell was closer to a 200 to 500 year ARI. What does that mean in normal person language? It means that the rains that fell on Sunday typically only occur every 200 to 500 years in basically a static climate (based on NOAA Atlas 14 data which came out for New York and Connecticut over 10 years ago). We know that the climate is warming and able to hold more water vapor than when these ARIs were calculated, thus the true ARI is probably less than that by several years.

But the takeaway here? Modeling did an adequate job of predicting both the scope, coverage, and intensity of the rain if you were willing to buy in. Easier said than done sometimes, but I’d argue these tools do a pretty solid job in most instances. While the placement was imperfect, I can tell you as someone who lived in Houston for 14 years, it’s hard to do much better than that.